[caveat emptor]

With all due respect, Sir, both to the time you have spent researching the arcana of the mechanics of the nuts and bolts of the process of the upcoming California gubernatorial recall election as well as similar and dissimilar elections in other jurisdictions and to the extreme frustration likely to be experienced by all those average, and less than, and more than, Janes and Joes (facing the smorgasbord of 195 (or whatever) candidates) not having cards "with easy to-follow instruction(s) ...printed in large black letters (for the vision impaired) that state a simple message: ''VOTE FOR JOHN SMITH ON LINE 72.'', just how difficult do you think it's going to be for even the most somnolent of those who manage to find their way to a polling place to find as well the name "Arnold Schwartzenneger", even if the ballot were to be as poorly formatted as this sentence?

[scan58]

That was a crappy sentence, but you get 10 points for "somnolent".
OK, so I bumped it back to the top. It's not because I'm nice. I just know how it is.

[Congressman Billybob]

Based on experiences in many jurisdictions, not just Florida in 2000, I think the level of "spoiled ballots" on the second question in California (who will replace Davis?) will be higher than Florida and on a par with Chicago as a percentage. In short, I think the physical nature of the cattle-call replacement vote will produce an all-time high in the percentage of people who come in to vote, do vote on the Davis recall, but then fail to cast a valid ballot on the second question.

This is a projection, based on experience. Votes on the two parts of the California ballot will be separately tabulated. For instance, if a voter votes on the Davis question but fails to vote for a replacement -- which is the legal effect of a partially spoiled ballot -- the first vote will nonetheless count.

The press will use exit polls to project the winner. Since I don't think the replacement vote will be close, the winner will be known right after the polls close. But the result will probably not be official until the final results are announced by the Secretary of States office, probably three days after the election. At that point the total voters on the two parts of the ballot will be known, and my projection will be proven or disproven.

(Also, as noted above, the meaningless cases about "disenfranchisement" will follow quickly, and be shortly dismissed.)

Billybob