Based on experiences in many jurisdictions, not just Florida in 2000, I think the level of "spoiled ballots" on the second question in California (who will replace Davis?) will be higher than Florida and on a par with Chicago as a percentage. In short, I think the physical nature of the cattle-call replacement vote will produce an all-time high in the percentage of people who come in to vote, do vote on the Davis recall, but then fail to cast a valid ballot on the second question.
This is a projection, based on experience. Votes on the two parts of the California ballot will be separately tabulated. For instance, if a voter votes on the Davis question but fails to vote for a replacement -- which is the legal effect of a partially spoiled ballot -- the first vote will nonetheless count.
The press will use exit polls to project the winner. Since I don't think the replacement vote will be close, the winner will be known right after the polls close. But the result will probably not be official until the final results are announced by the Secretary of States office, probably three days after the election. At that point the total voters on the two parts of the ballot will be known, and my projection will be proven or disproven.
(Also, as noted above, the meaningless cases about "disenfranchisement" will follow quickly, and be shortly dismissed.)
Billybob
Billybob, that was a very cogent analysis.
I'll say that the ballot may not be as complicated as you say. There are only two questions, even if there are 192 candidates.
BRAVO BUMP for a most interesting article.
Your analysis makes perfect sense to me.
Moreover I hope that both Simon & McClintock consider withdrawing from the race if they are in single digits after labor Day.
I fear they may syphon votes from Arnold & thus give a win to Bustamonte.