Posted on 08/12/2003 6:12:43 AM PDT by Congressman Billybob
Enjoy.
Another weird thing in this election is that the positions of the candidates on the ballots will be different in each of the counties, so state wide ads won't work either.
What is your prediction for the number of lawsuits filed for "disenchfranchised" voters who were confused by the ballots?
That's my point. The very difficulty of the ballot process will drive the vote totals of all but the most organized candidates, down to near zero.
Billybob
In short, that's the Chicago situation from 2000, which is why I referred to it. And when the judges know that however they rule it will have no effect on the outcome, they will trip over themselves in their haste to throw these suits out of court.
In short, this is a self-solving problem, the very best kind of problem.
Billybob
calgov2002:
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The longer a ballot is, the more that voters become frustrated. ... And the California ballot in this election will be one of the worst ''laundry-list ballots'' in the history of American elections. So not only will the turnout for the recall of Davis be low, the total vote for all replacement candidates will be even lower.
This is an exceptionally short campaign, with an exceptionally high level of interest. The Gallup/USA Today poll came out yesterday showed that of all registered voters in my state, 71% listed themselves as "Extremely" and "Very" interested in the recall. (of what they called probable it added up to 100%) To say the "the turnout for the recall of Davis will be low" is so contradictory to what I see and hear that I don't what theoretical campaign this guy is talking about.
Its getting so old that its boring. Its certainly not a scarey nightmare, its a nightmare in that people keep posting it OVER AND OVER AND OVER. Yes, that is a nightmare.
Cruz appoints Davis Lt Gov (Repubs do not have a majority to block).
Never happen in a million years, I don't know if you got the memo, but the despise eachother, Cruz thinks he has a shot, so he is taking it. He has alienated, not pun intended, the rest of the party in doing so and contradicting party edict. So everything that follows in this "nightmare" is laughably untrue.
If Davis resigned (which his Clintonesque ego would never allow), Bustamante does not "become Governor." He only becomes "acting Governor" and only until the "recall election is held." And, if Davis resigned, the recall election "will still be held." The only difference is the yes-no question of removing Davis would not appear on the ballot.
As long as California's existing election laws are followed, your scenario is impossible. And since the California Supreme Court has already rejected five challenges to this election, that law will stand.
There is an NAACP/ACLU court challenge to the election that is still live. I just heard the representative for the Plaintiffs in that case on Fox News. She is dumb as a hoe handle. As a 40-year expert in election law, I guarantee that case as well will be thrown out of court.
Rest easy. The only way that Davis can remain Governor is if he wins the recall vote. And his numbers there are already at an all-time low and still dropping. Davis is road kill. Focus your attention on who will replace him from the election.
Billybob
Even if turnoout is much higher, it does not affect my conclusions based on the mechanics of the election. The total vote on the Davis question will be higher than the total vote in the election to replace him. The complexity of the second part of the ballot guarantees that result.
And, my second point remains valid. Only those candidates with the money and organization to man the polls exactly as I describe, will get any significant number of votes. The polling results for all unmoneyed, unorganized candidates will evaporate like morning fog in a hot sun, when voters walk into the voting booths.
I've done this sort of stuff for forty years. Trust me, I know these things.
Billybob
Gray Must Pay
Cruz Must Lose
That won't work either, Congressman, because all the major papers cover multiple Assembly districts. The LA Times covers about 30, OC Register about 7, etc etc etc. Even the San Francisco paper goes through all or part of 9 districts if I remember right. So you have to have volunteers at every precinct, mass media of any kind just won't work.
The interesting thing is that Arnold is surrounding himself with Wilson people, who are notorious in California for having a lousy ground game in terms of GOTV. The old dogs in the legislature who used to run all this stuff routinely have been term limited out (term limits are the biggest reason for the GOP freefall in California, but that's a carol for another Christmas.)
I still think -- if a gun were held to my head and I had to bet -- Bustamante gets it because EVERY dem that votes against the recall will vote for Bustamante AND about a third of the dems who vote for the recall will want to vote for a dem replacement. There will be a bigger than average minority turnout (Conner's proposition is on the ballot), Bustamante will benefit from a disciplined, well funded and ferocious effort by every public employee and union member, and Simon/Ueberroth/McClintock will eat into Arnold's totals. Plurality wins, and the plurality will be liberal dems who, even if they hate Davis, really don't like voting GOP. Hope I'm wrong.
Ok, but my contention is that turnout would be low. So not only will the turnout for the recall of Davis be low, the total vote for all replacement candidates will be even lowerThat was my disagreement, not whether a significant number will abstain from the second question, (which I also doubt). I'm certain the turnout will be higher than any off year election ever, possibily more than any election "in 40 years"
I've done this sort of stuff for forty years. Trust me, I know these things.
Sorry, no can do. To say that the turnout will be low flies in the face of reason. I have never heard EVERYONE I know talk about one issue since I've been here. Heck, our AM radio has daily shows devoted exclusively to the recall. The FM DJs talk about it. Look at the Gallup Poll I cited for you, that's not out of thin air, this is a populist revolt that has engaged cynics embittered by the system for decades. The media had it right before, this isn't a circus, this is an Earthquake.
I say trust me, I'm not North Carolina passively observing this, I live in California talking to Californians every day.
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