Ok, but my contention is that turnout would be low. So not only will the turnout for the recall of Davis be low, the total vote for all replacement candidates will be even lowerThat was my disagreement, not whether a significant number will abstain from the second question, (which I also doubt). I'm certain the turnout will be higher than any off year election ever, possibily more than any election "in 40 years"
I've done this sort of stuff for forty years. Trust me, I know these things.
Sorry, no can do. To say that the turnout will be low flies in the face of reason. I have never heard EVERYONE I know talk about one issue since I've been here. Heck, our AM radio has daily shows devoted exclusively to the recall. The FM DJs talk about it. Look at the Gallup Poll I cited for you, that's not out of thin air, this is a populist revolt that has engaged cynics embittered by the system for decades. The media had it right before, this isn't a circus, this is an Earthquake.
I say trust me, I'm not North Carolina passively observing this, I live in California talking to Californians every day.
I'll make you these two wagers based on the mechanical difficulty of voting for one of 195 candidates. In both cases, I owe you $25 if I'm wrong. You owe me $1 if I'm right. 1. The total vote on the Davis recall question will exceed the total vote for all candidates running to replace him. 2. The average of the polls for how people will vote, as of the day before the election, will not match the votes cast. Specifically, the totals for Schwarzenegger, Bustamante and Simon together will be higher than poll results predict, and the totals for all other candidates together will be lower than predicted.
Billybob