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I am "this guy" who wrote this article. The turnout for the gubernatorial primary last year was 32% as I recall. I'm delighted that Californians "are interested" in this election. But I still expect turnout around 32% for the recall election.

Even if turnoout is much higher, it does not affect my conclusions based on the mechanics of the election. The total vote on the Davis question will be higher than the total vote in the election to replace him. The complexity of the second part of the ballot guarantees that result.

And, my second point remains valid. Only those candidates with the money and organization to man the polls exactly as I describe, will get any significant number of votes. The polling results for all unmoneyed, unorganized candidates will evaporate like morning fog in a hot sun, when voters walk into the voting booths.

I've done this sort of stuff for forty years. Trust me, I know these things.

Billybob

The total vote on the Davis question will be higher than the total vote in the election to replace him

Ok, but my contention is that turnout would be low. So not only will the turnout for the recall of Davis be low, the total vote for all replacement candidates will be even lowerThat was my disagreement, not whether a significant number will abstain from the second question, (which I also doubt). I'm certain the turnout will be higher than any off year election ever, possibily more than any election "in 40 years"

I've done this sort of stuff for forty years. Trust me, I know these things.

Sorry, no can do. To say that the turnout will be low flies in the face of reason. I have never heard EVERYONE I know talk about one issue since I've been here. Heck, our AM radio has daily shows devoted exclusively to the recall. The FM DJs talk about it. Look at the Gallup Poll I cited for you, that's not out of thin air, this is a populist revolt that has engaged cynics embittered by the system for decades. The media had it right before, this isn't a circus, this is an Earthquake.

I say trust me, I'm not North Carolina passively observing this, I live in California talking to Californians every day.

And, my second point remains valid. Only those candidates with the money and organization to man the polls exactly as I describe, will get any significant number of votes. The polling results for all unmoneyed, unorganized candidates will evaporate like morning fog in a hot sun, when voters walk into the voting booths.

I have a question: Is it possible that this effect will work more against Bustamante than against Schwarzenegger? I see your basic point: someone votes one way or the other on Part 1, and then looks at the looooong list of candidates, decides it's more trouble than it's worth, and leaves that part blank.

But I assume that someone who votes to retain Davis in office is more likely to favor Bustamante than Schwarzenegger. I also assume that someone who votes to remove Davis is more motivated to find and vote for his replacement candidate. Do you think those two assumptions are true? And if so, are they true for enough people to hurt Bustamante more than Schwarzenegger?