Replies

I'm not talking about statewide ads. It will have to be ads in local papers (an organizational nightmare). And the voter instruction cards will have to be different for each Assembly district, which is the basis on which the names will be rotated on the ballot.

That's my point. The very difficulty of the ballot process will drive the vote totals of all but the most organized candidates, down to near zero.

Billybob

What about this nightmare?

In a very complex situation, simple wins.

The simplest vote is the Demorat position: vote no on recall.

Fiendish Demorat nightmare:
Davis resigns before the election.
Cruz becomes Gov (filling the vacancy).
Cruz appoints Davis Lt Gov (Repubs do not have a majority to block).
The Demorats defeat the recall.
Cruz resigns and Davis becomes Gov (filling the vacancy).

It will have to be ads in local papers (an organizational nightmare).

That won't work either, Congressman, because all the major papers cover multiple Assembly districts. The LA Times covers about 30, OC Register about 7, etc etc etc. Even the San Francisco paper goes through all or part of 9 districts if I remember right. So you have to have volunteers at every precinct, mass media of any kind just won't work.

The interesting thing is that Arnold is surrounding himself with Wilson people, who are notorious in California for having a lousy ground game in terms of GOTV. The old dogs in the legislature who used to run all this stuff routinely have been term limited out (term limits are the biggest reason for the GOP freefall in California, but that's a carol for another Christmas.)

I still think -- if a gun were held to my head and I had to bet -- Bustamante gets it because EVERY dem that votes against the recall will vote for Bustamante AND about a third of the dems who vote for the recall will want to vote for a dem replacement. There will be a bigger than average minority turnout (Conner's proposition is on the ballot), Bustamante will benefit from a disciplined, well funded and ferocious effort by every public employee and union member, and Simon/Ueberroth/McClintock will eat into Arnold's totals. Plurality wins, and the plurality will be liberal dems who, even if they hate Davis, really don't like voting GOP. Hope I'm wrong.