Posted on 06/25/2003 12:45:11 PM PDT by Russian Sage
Economy Downs Bush's Re-Election Support
Wednesday June 25, 2003 7:19 AM
By WILL LESTER
Associated Press Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush basks in high approval ratings, but when potential voters are pressed about giving him a second term, the numbers drop, a reflection of worries about the struggling economy and a general wait-and-see attitude so far ahead of the election.
Bush's overall approval ratings have remained at 60 percent or higher in most polls since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
But now that the electorate is turning to thinking about Bush's handling of the economy and wondering who the Democrats will nominate, the president's re-elect numbers are at 50 percent or lower in several polls.
In a recent CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, 50 percent said they would vote for Bush and 38 percent backed the unknown Democratic candidate, with the rest undecided. Those numbers aren't very different from those garnered by Bush's father in June 1991, when the commander in chief was praised for the U.S. success in the Persian Gulf War and the Democrats were scrambling for a candidate.
Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election.
``With job approval, you're asking how they feel right now,'' said Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup poll. Bush's job approval ratings won't accurately reflect his potential until March or April next year, Newport said.
The current poll also found that 37 percent of Democrats approve of Bush's job performance, but only a third of those Democrats who approve would vote to re-elect him. Among independents, the re-elect numbers weren't as high as the approval ratings.
``What this means is that Democrats and independents who lean Democratic still want to consider other choices,'' said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. ``Bush will still have to convince swing voters that he's the right person for the job once a Democratic candidate emerges.
``It also says the public wants an election campaign and wants to see what the Democratic candidate will say,'' Kohut said.
Bush's re-elect numbers are even lower in the Ipsos-Cook Political Report tracking poll, which showed a drop for the president from April to June, a time when the nation's focus shifted from the U.S.-led war against Iraq to the economy, Medicare and tax cuts.
In June, 42 percent of those polled said they would definitely vote to re-elect Bush, and 31 percent said they would definitely vote for someone else. Bush had a 19-point advantage over an unnamed opponent in the April survey by the Ipsos-Cook Political Report.
Thomas Riehle, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said the reason was simple: It's the economy.
For Democrats, struggling with a field of nine candidates and facing a Bush fund-raising machine that has raked in millions, the numbers provide some hope - and a challenge. Veteran pollster Warren Mitofsky said who the Democrats pick will influence the support for Bush's re-election.
``The real question for the Democrats is will they choose a candidate who's as good as people are looking for?'' Mitofsky said.
Pollsters also point to an inherent problem in asking people whether they favor the president or a hypothetical opponent. ``People can pick their favorite candidate, or they could pick someone who's not even in the field,'' said Doug Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University poll. ``People can pick their own fantasy candidate.''
Maybe that's the Democrats' key to victory -- run a dead Democrat against Bush, maybe FDR.
This article is a prime example of how the media uses polls to manipulate the news. Every poll that pits an incumbent against people's expectations (and not any named candidate) results in low numbers for the incumbent. The media can then report that the incumbent is "in trouble." But 50% support for Bush against people's expectations?! That's pretty good! Pit him against Holy Joe, or John Fitzgerald Kerry, or Spin-Dr. Howard Dean, and Bush's support goes into Reaganesque landslide territory.
The term "potential voters" says it all. These are not likely voters. The dems are using the court nominations and the economy to incite high voter turnout, which benefits them. Democrats are lazy by nature. They know that they can only win by getting them all to the polls. There is nothing here to be concerned over. Bush will trounce the democrat candidate.
If they thought they really had a chance to win, then why isn't Hillary running? Isn't she supposed to be the smartest woman alive?
Comparing Bush to an unknown/unnamed candidate proves nothing. Under those standards, people will pick their ideal candidate. When compared to the current crop of named Democratic candidates, Bushes percentage climbs into the middle and upper 50% range. No contest so far. Bush wins big in 2004.
The economy is starting to pick up and full recovery is in motion. By next year at this time, the stock market will be above 10,000, unemployment will be below 6% and growth will be at 3%-4%.
Lies, Damn Lies and Polls.
Figure at this point, factoring in a years worth of scare-tactic campaigning, it's Bush 52%, random Dem 43%, Greens 3%, others 2%.
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