[VAGOP]

Tracking headlines:

The MSNBC/Zogby International Final Results Tracking Poll tracked key elections in Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, South Dakota and Texas. A final results poll will be released Election night. For the final results poll, leaners are factored in and Undecideds are eliminated in key races. *Please correctly attribute any information from the following polls to their proper survey source. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Arkansas - MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll - Governor. Survey conducted of 507 likely voters statewide Nov. 2 - 4 Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Mike Huckabee (Republican) 49 50 51 54

Jimmie Lou Fisher (Democrat) 37 40 40 44

Not Sure 12 10 7 -

Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands at: (Huckabee 50%, Fisher 41%, Undecided 8%). Huckabee leads Fisher in Little Rock (54% - 44%) and in Northwest Arkansas (62% - 37%). The two remained tied in the rest of the state (Huckabee 50%, Fisher 49%). Fisher leads among Democrats (76% - 23%) while Huckabee leads among Republicans (93% - 6%) and Independents (63% - 34%). Huckabee leads among men (58% - 41%) and among women (51% -47%).

Arkansas - MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll - Senate Survey conducted of 507 likely voters statewide Nov. 2-4, 2002 Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Tim Hutchinson (Republican) 43 45 44 43

Mark Pryor (Democrat) 45 45 55 56

Not Sure 12 9 - -

Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands at: (Pryor 53%, Hutchinson 41%, Undecided 5%). Pryor leads in Little Rock (56% - 43%), in the Northwest portion of the state (52% - 48%) and in the rest of the state (60% - 40%). Pryor leads among Democrats (85% - 15%) while Hutchinson leads among Republicans (93% - 7%). Pryor leads among Independents (58% - 40%) when last month Hutchinson led (49% - 39%). Pryor leads among men (55% - 45%) and women (59% - 41%). Less than a majority (40%) say that Hutchinson deserves re-election and 51% say it is time for someone new.

Pollster John Zogby: "Looks like Pryor triumphs by trouncing Hutchinson among Indpendents. Here's another case where 401k holders voted against the incumbent."

ALL PUBLISHING RIGHTS RESERVED

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Colorado - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 2-4 of 507 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Wayne Allard (Republican) 42 40 44 46

Tom Strickland (Democrat) 42 41 53 51

Rick Stanley (Libertarian) - 5 3 2

Not sure 12 13 - -

Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored in the race stands: (Strickland 49%, Allard 44%, Stanley 2% Undecided 5%). Strickland leads Allard among Denver area voters (55% - 43%) and Southeast voters (52% - 48%). Allard continues to lead Strickland among Northwest voters (52% - 46%). Strickland leads among Democrats (77% - 22%) and Independents (67% - 31%), while Allard leads among Republicans (82% - 15%). Allard leads among men (51% - 47%) while Strickland leads among women (56% - 42%). Less than half (44%) continue to say Allard deserves re-election compared to 49% who say it is time for someone new.

Pollster John Zogby: "Looks to me like Strickland will win this, though it has tightened again. Allard's re-elect numbers where never good and interestingly, while 401K-holders voted solidly Republican in 2000, the two candidates tied among this group - advantage Strickland."

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Georgia - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted of 600 likely voters statewide Nov. 3-4. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%

Nov. 2 Final Results

Max Cleland (Democrat) 49 50

Saxby Chambliss(Republican) 49 48

Sandy Thomas (Libertarian) 2 1

Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands (Cleland 46% - Chamblinss 44%, Undecided 9%.) Cleland takes a short lead over Chambliss in Atlanta (51% - 47%) when just days ago the two were deadlocked (Cleland 49%, Chambliss 49%). The two are virtually tied among voters in the Northern part of the state (Cleland 49%, Chambliss 51%), and in the Southern part of the state (Cleland 50% - Chambliss 48%). Cleland leads among Democrats (92% - 7%), while Chambliss leads among Republicans (95% - 6%). Cleland now leads among Independents (58% - 39%) when just days ago, Chambliss led (62% - 33%). The two are tied among men (Chambliss 50%, Cleland 49%) while Cleland leads among women (52% - 47%). Less than half (45%) say Cleland deserves re-election while 48% say it is time for someone new.

Pollster John Zogby: "A big surprise because this race was on the watch list, then off, then on again. This one is truly too close to call, but more voters think it is time for someone new than feel that Cleland deserves re-election. Here's another race where 401K-holders vote against the incumbent."

ALL PUBLISHING RIGHTS RESERVED

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minnesota - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted of 601 likely voters statewide Nov. 3-4. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Walter Mondale (Democrat) (Wellstone) 41 (Wellstone) 46 50 51

Norm Coleman (Republican) 47 37 45 45

Jim Moore (Independence) 2 6 3 2

Ray Tricomo (Green) 1 1 - 2

Not sure 8 10 - -

Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in, the race stands: (Mondale 49%, Coleman 44%, Moore 2%, Tricomo 2%, Undecided 3%). Mondale and Coleman are tied among voters in Minneapolis/St. Paul (Mondale 48%, Coleman 47%) when just days ago,Mondale led Coleman (52% - 46%). Mondale leads among voters in the North (65% - 32%). Coleman leads among voters in the South (51% - 46%). The two are now tied among voters in the Central region (Mondale 45%, Coleman 45%). Mondale leads among Democrats (95% - 4%) while Coleman leads among Republicans (95% - 4%). Mondale has a slight lead among Independents (46% - 43%). Mondale now leads among men (50% - 46%) when just a few days ago Coleman led (53% - 42%). Mondale leads among women (52% - 44%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Despite the President's best efforts, looks like Mondale holds on."

ALL PUBLISHING RIGHTS RESERVED

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Missouri - MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 3-4 of 600 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Jean Carnahan (Democrat) 48 41 49 45

Jim Talent (Republican) 40 47 48 53

Daniel "Digger" Romano (Green) 0 0 1 1

Tamara Millay (Libertarian) 1 1 1 1

Not Sure 10 10 - -

Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored the race stands at: (Talent 50%, Carnahan 43%, Romano 1%, Millay 1%, Undecided 5%).Carnahan and Talent are now tied among St. Louis voters (Carnahan 48%, Talent 50%) when days ago Caranhan led (56% - 43%). Talent continues to lead among voters throughout the rest of the state (54% - 44%). Carnahan leads among Democrats (89% - 10%) and Talent leads among Republicans (95% - 5%), but Talent leads among Independents (54% - 39%). Carnahan leads among women (53% - 44%) while Talent continues to hold a strong lead among men (61% - 37%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Carnahan's re-elect was poor and she loses by 21 points among 401K-holders. Looks like Talent wins this one."

ALL PUBLISHING RIGHTS RESERVED

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- New Jersey - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 2-4 of 527 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Frank Lautenberg (Democrat) (*Torricelli)39 48 54 55

Douglas Forrester (Republican) 34 36 38 42

John "Ted" Glick (Green) 3 1 5 2

Liz Macron (Libertarian) 2 1 1 1

Not Sure 21 12 - -

*Withdrew from the campaign.

Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners not factored in, the race stands at: (Lautenberg 49%, Forrester 38%, Glick 2%, Macron 1%, Undecided 9%). Lautenburg leads Forrester among voters in the North (59% - 37%) and in the South (53% - 42%). Lautenburg also leads Forrester in the Central part of the state (52% - 47%). Lautenburg leads among Democrats (92% - 5%) while Forrester leads among Republicans (81% - 18%). Forrester now leads among Independents (53% - 40%) when just days ago, Lautenberg led (51% - 28%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Voters simply never found Forrester."

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- North Carolina - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 2-4 of 525 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%

Sept. 21 Nov. 2 Final Results

Elizabeth Dole (Republican) 55 52 53

Erskine Bowles (Democrat) 32 46 43

Sean Haugh (Libertarian) 1 3 4

Not sure 11 - -

Behind the numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners not factored in the race stands at: (Dole 46%, Bowles 39%, Haugh 4%). Dole leads Bowles in Greensboro (59% - 36%), in Charlotte (51% - 46%), and in the Western portion of the state (69% - 30%). Bowles leads among voters in the East (46% - 44%) and among voters in the Raleigh/Durham area (54% - 45%). Dole leads amongwhites (62% - 34%) while Bowles leads among African Americans (83% - 17%). Dole leads among men (59% - 35%) while Bowles leads among women (51% - 47%).

Pollster John Zogby: "A roller-coaster ride in this campaign. At one point this became a four-point race. But it looks like Dole has run the clock out as her lead grows over the last couple days."

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- South Dakota - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 3-4 of 500 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Tim Johnson (Democrat) 46 43 52 47

John Thune (Republican) 43 45 47 52

Kurt Evans (Libertarian) 2 3 1 1

Not Sure 10 10 -

Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in the race stands: (Johnson 44%, Thune 48%, Evans 1%, Undecided 7%): Thune leads Johnson among voters in the West 55% - 43%) and in the Central region (54% - 45%), while the two are virtually tied in the East (Johnson 49%, Thune 50%). Johnson leads among Democrats (86% - 12%) while Thune leads among Republicans (79% - 21%). Thune leads among Independents (52% - 48%). Thune leads among men (58% - 41%), while Johnson leads among women (53% - 46%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Thune has pulled ahead by virtue of the President's last minute visit. President Bush has a 79% favorability rating in South Dakota while Tom Daschle has a 62% rating. Bottom line is more voters believe Johnson does not deserve to be re-elected. Among 401K- owners, Thune has a 52% -41% advantage."

ALL PUBLISHING RIGHTS RESERVED

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Texas - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Governor Poll conducted Nov. 3 - 4 of 602 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

Rick Perry (Republican) 44 52 50 58

Tony Sanchez (Democrat) 32 30 36 38

Rahul Mahajan (Green) 1 1 1 1

Jeff Daiell (Libertarian) 4 2 1 2

Not sure 18 13 10 -

Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in the race stands at: Perry 52%, Sanchez 34%, Mahajan 1%, Daiell 1%, Undecided 10%). Perry maintains his leads over voters in Dallas (50% - 47%), in the East (59% - 37%), among voters in the West (65% - 34%) and in the Central region (61% - 32%). Perry also leads among voters Houston voters (62% - 35%). Sanchez leads in the South (60% - 34%). Sanchez leads among Democrats (80% - 17%) while Perry leads among Republicans (93% - 6%). Perry now leads among Independents (56% - 36%) when days ago, the two were virtually tied (Perry 41%, Sanchez 39%). Perry continues to lead Sanchez among whites (74% - 22%) while Sanchez leads among Hispanics (59% - 35%) and African Americans (81% - 19%).

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Texas - MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate Poll conducted Nov. 3 - 4 of 602 likely voters statewide. Margin of sampling error +/- 4%

Sept. 21 Oct. 12 Nov. 2 Final Results

John Cornyn (Republican) 42 45 49 50

Ron Kirk (Democrat) 30 37 48 46

Roy Williams (Green) 1 3 1 1

Scott Jameson (Libertarian) 3 2 2 2

Wright 1 5 1 1

Not sure 22 13 - -

Behind the Numbers: When Undecideds are not eliminated and leaners are not factored in the race stands at: (Cornyn 46%, Kirk 42%, Williams 1%, Jameson 1%, Wright 1%, Undecided 9%). Kirk now leads Cornyn among Dallas voters (62% - 38%) when days ago Cornyn led (48% - 45%). Cornyn leads among voters in Houston (53% - 43%), in the West (65% - 33%), and in the Central region (57% - 39%). Kirk leads among voters in the South (60% - 19%). Kirk leads among Democrats (86% - 13%) while Cornyn leads among Republicans (87% - 12%). Kirk leads among Independents (45% - 41%) when last month Cornyn led (40% - 36%). Cornyn leads among whites (68% - 30%) while Kirk leads among Hispanics (58% - 27%) and African Americans (91% - 9%).

Pollster John Zogby: "Turnout is everything here. Cornyn is also helped by President Bush's 78% favorable rating in Texas and the President's last-minute campaigning. But Kirk is a hot candidate and a big push by Hispanics and African Americans could make this even tighter."

ALL PUBLISHING RIGHTS RESERVED

[comebacknewt]

If Zog is right, then we need "upsets" in two of the following states to regain the Senate:

Colorodo

Georgia

Minnesota

New Hampshire

Louisiana

If we win one of these and all else holds, it is a status quo election. If we win two or more, we win back the Senate.

Under either scnario our performance would be almost unprecedented!

[StockAyatollah]

Forget the polling data. Its going to be close. The only things that matter:

1.) Do the rats have enough free packs of cigarettes and bottles of Boone's Farm to bribe the homeless?

2.) Can some rat judge keep the polls open long enough in St. Louis to allow the rats to vote late and often?

3.) Will illegal Haitian immigrants be able to put down ther voodoo dolls long enough to go out and vote rat?

[Timesink]

A final results poll will be released Election night. For the final results poll, leaners are factored in and Undecideds are eliminated in key races.

No wonder he's always so "accurate" with his final poll. He gets to plug in tracking poll/VNS data FROM ACTUAL VOTERS ON ELECTION DAY. It's pretty easy to be on target when the AP is spitting out the actual results onto your screen, ain't it Zog?

[FreeLibertarian]

Bump 4 Later

[okie01]

Looking at the internals, there are some enormous swings among the independents -- as much as 20 to 40 pts vs "days ago. Some have swung to the Democrats, some to the GOP.

The huge nature of these swings, as in the Georgia Senate race -- "Cleland now leads among Independents (58% - 39%) when just days ago, Chambliss led (62% - 33%)." -- make it appear that Zogby's sample is very unstable.

Or, perhaps, that the electorate has itself become very unstable as we approach the finish. All of these are very fluid races, it seems to me.

[Arkinsaw]

Regardless of what happens, this has been a pretty historic election. I am certain that on inauguration day the Democrats, especially Gephardt, were itching to get to this day thinking that they would pick up 40 or so seats. It looks like we will hold our own in the House and thats a big deal.

To think that we are on the night before a midterm election with the recent economy and Democratic shenanigans and still hoping to regain control of the Senate. A pretty darn good campaign has been run this time and the GOP is finally working on get out the vote efforts. A midterm election to build on.

[fabian]

Does anyone have any recommendations for the mayor of the San Fernando valley and the court of appeals judges??

[concerned about politics]

I'll wait until tomarrow. FOX is really saying good things about Republicans.
Most polled are dumpocraps who sit by the phone on their butts all day.
I like to hear good polls, but they don't mean that much.
We're going to do just fine. Remember the military voters?

[EternalVigilance]

Good. They ignored us here in WV right to the very end.

We are going to make them pay seriously for their arrogant oversight tomorrow. Count on it.

EV

[bigmikes]

The Georgia Numbers don't seem to make a lot of sense to me. He basically has the Independants going from 62-33 for Chambliss to 58-39 for Cleland. A change that happens as a result of that debate the other day, which pundits have called as lopsided as you'll see at the national level.

Of course one thing is true when you look at polls. the Margin of error increases significantly with the sample size, so these more specific numbers that Zogby gives are often statistically insignificant.

the only way I could see that debate being and advantage for Cleland would be if there was a big pity vote, as people feel like Chambliss beat up on the poor crippled man. It shouldn't happen, but never underestimate how dumb people can be.

I am going into this with negative thoughts (my people are dumb theory), and hoping I will be pleasantly surprised.

[flying Elvis]

Georgia will go for Cleland. Watch the Atlanta precints report late and overwhelmingly dem. Sax will pull out to a huge lead early, only to see it evaporate as Atlanta begins reporting.

[BoomerBob]

I want to throw a question out there in case I missed reading the answer in one of the posts...

Are these results, like most tracking polls, using the process of rolling data over a three day period, dropping off the oldest data and adding in the new?

If that's the case then consider the Colorado race... Zogby had Allard down nine and now he's down five. Assuming that the 9 point poll was an outlier, then the next two polls showing the race moving closer may actually represent a tie race or Allard actually in the lead (which would correspond more closely with all the other polls in the race). All the tangibles going into tomorrow are in Allard's favor (i.e. registration advantage, strong GOP tickets in all the races except Boulder and Denver where Allard will be behind anyway). My final guess on this race is Allard by 3pts and overall the GOP +2 assuming LA stays Democrat in the runoff.

[lawgirl]

Behind the Numbers: With Undecideds not eliminated and leaners not factored the race stands at: (Talent 50%, Carnahan 43%,

OH HELL YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!! I simply cannot wait to vote. I am going to go to bed now so I can get up EARLY and VOTE!!!!!

[ppaul]

[WFTR]

According to these results, we trade Arkansas and Colorado for South Dakota and Missouri.

Barring massive voter fraud, there is going to be a runoff in Louisiana. Liberal Mary Landrieu has ticked off too many people in a state that supported President Bush by a 53 to 46 majority. She does poorly among blacks anyway, and the conservatives are still angry over her vote fraud win in '96. One of the three Republicans will force her into a runoff, and the party will stick together through the runoff. We can't factor the voter fraud, but it should be a little harder this time. President Bush will visit the state during the runoff, and this seat will make the US Senate Republican.

WFTR
Bill

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

I think the real wild-card will be here in Louisiana. The leading Democrat has to get 50% to avoid a runoff, Its supposed to rain all day here in Louisiana and that very well could hurt her turnout.

I honestly dont think she will get 50% and will be forced into a runoff ion December...if so, shes a goner!

[stuck_in_new_orleans]

I think the real wild-card will be here in Louisiana. The leading Democrat has to get 50% to avoid a runoff, Its supposed to rain all day here in Louisiana and that very well could hurt her turnout.

I honestly dont think she will get 50% and will be forced into a runoff in December...if so, shes a goner!

[CyberCowboy777]

Daschle's Plea for Pro-Abortion Funds Shows Importance of Nov. 5 Elections
To keep the Senate under his thumb, CNSNews.com reports Majority Leader Tom Daschle on Wednesday emailed a desperate plea for funds to help pro- abortion Democrats -- a telltale move showing the crucial importance of the Nov. 5 elections. In his "urgent" email appeal, titled "Last Chance to Keep Pro-Choice Leadership in the Senate," Daschle (D-S.D.) solicits contributions for National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League's "Save the Senate" campaign five times in eight paragraphs.
"Rarely has so much been at stake for a woman's right to choose in a U.S. Senate Election," Daschle wrote, according to CNSnews.com "If you, and thousands of other pro-choice Americans like you, don't act today by giving to NARAL's Save the Senate Campaign, the U.S. Senate could fall into anti-choice hands on November 6th -- the first day after the election."
His money-minded challenge intensifies the need for all pro-life supporters to get the vote out against pro-abortion candidates. As Daschle admits, this IS our chance to turn the tide in the Senate against radical Democrats determined to continue their unholy, unjust and un-American agenda. Those who would continue to murder the unborn already are digging deep to keep the Senate in blood-stained hands. We must answer not so much with money but with votes at the ballot box. I am taking off from work Tuesday to man phone banks and be at a polling place. What are you willing to do to release the Senate and our nation from this evil grip? I hope and pray each person who gets this will find four hours to volunteer before their polls close on Tuesday. Sacrifice a little now to rejoice a lot on Nov. 6! Phil Sheldon www.ConservativePetitions.com  P.S. Please email this message to everyone you know! As Edmond Burke once said, "The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." If unable to help out during this pivotal election, you can still play a key role by getting this message to those who are in a position to volunteer their effort and time. And be sure to vote! Let's triumph on this wonderful opportunity to make a real difference in America. Want to read the full CNSnews.com report? CLICK HERE!

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

[FairOpinion]

Thanks for posting. On one hand some of it is discouraging, but I think we have a better chance than the final numbers reflect.

I noted that in the Forrester-Lautenberg race, while L. is ahead by 49 to 38, but note this:

"Forrester now leads among Independents (53% - 40%) when just days ago, Lautenberg led (51% - 28%)."

This is a heck of a change in a few days -- a total flip-flop.

I think it's TURNOUT, TURNOUT, we shouldn't give up anything -- with the leaners and undecideds not factored in, considering the margin of error of 4% -- if Forrester is only 5 points behind, and note the huge flip flop among independents, you just never know in this race or any other ones that the Zogby polls show within 5-10%.