To: VAGOP
I want to throw a question out there in case I missed reading the answer in one of the posts...
Are these results, like most tracking polls, using the process of rolling data over a three day period, dropping off the oldest data and adding in the new?
If that's the case then consider the Colorado race... Zogby had Allard down nine and now he's down five. Assuming that the 9 point poll was an outlier, then the next two polls showing the race moving closer may actually represent a tie race or Allard actually in the lead (which would correspond more closely with all the other polls in the race). All the tangibles going into tomorrow are in Allard's favor (i.e. registration advantage, strong GOP tickets in all the races except Boulder and Denver where Allard will be behind anyway). My final guess on this race is Allard by 3pts and overall the GOP +2 assuming LA stays Democrat in the runoff.
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