Mondale's no shoo-inby JohnHuang2
It was mid-afternoon Friday, the harrowing news had just crossed the wires: A plane crash in northern Minnesota had claimed the life of Sen. Paul Wellstone, his wife, daughter and several campaign workers.
Democrats were in a state of shock, not so much over the tragic deaths as the chilling implications -- for November.
Seeking a third term, Sen. Wellstone had been locked in a tight race with former St. Paul mayor Norm Coleman, a Democrat-turned-Republican widely depicted in the media as Bush's own 'hand-picked' candidate in a bid to retake the Senate, where Democrats hold a 1-vote margin.
Wellstone, though regarded by insiders as highly vulnerable, appeared to have leapt ahead of Coleman after a 'nay' vote on the Iraq war resolution -- 9 points according to Zogby. (Internal GOP polls still had the race a toss-up, with Coleman 2% ahead.) Conventional wisdom, ignoring Minnesota's long history of isolationism, held the vote would hurt Wellstone's chances, particularly after 9/11.
Top Democrats, after prodding Wellstone to change his mind, if only to save his seat, were breathing a sigh of relief.
Then came the news Friday afternoon. As Wellstone's body smoldered, frantic Democrats scrambled for a replacement, trial-ballooning a list of possible substitutes in the media, then settling late in the day on former Vice President Walter Mondale, who retired from national politics after a crushing defeat in '84 by then President Ronald Reagan.
Democrats, while publically mourning the death of Paul Wellstone and mouthing platitudes about his legacy, behind the scenes conducted ghoulish polls and focus groups as election lawyers scoured Minnesota law to see how much the party can get away with.
As these grave-robbers ferreted political advantage, Democrats decided on a four-prong strategy:
1) Cannibalize Wellstone politically, a la Gov. Mel Carnahan; play on voters' heart strings, ride on Wellstone's coattails.
2) Get a jump-start on Republicans now -- mount a full-tilt campaign on Mondale's behalf. Get the media bandwagon going. Don't wait for the funeral. It's the dead body, stupid! Use it.
3) Make the Mondale pick by Party bosses a done deal; get Wellstone's kids to say they back the choice. So what if they barely know him? Winning is everything!
4) Portray any GOP reaction to Mondale's selection as an 'outrage', an abomination, a sacrilege of Wellstone himself, his memory, his legacy. Scream bloody murder, feign indignation, anger and shock; don't worry, no matter how phony, the press will back you to the hilt.
Sure enough, there was CNN's Judy Woodruff Monday on Inside Politics, berating RNC Chair Marc Racicot. She lectured and she scolded. 'How can Republicans be so insensitive, so unfeeling, so inhuman, so cruel, so heartless, Marc!! How dare you criticize what-cha-ma-call it, uh, ummm ... Walter Mondale! You're not even crumbs off the table, compared to him!' (Exaggerating? Yes, but that was the clear insinuation by her line of questioning).
Terry McAuliffe, also on the show, sat there poker face. But over his head, a thought bubble hovered, which read: 'Thanks, Judy, for doing our dirty work! hehehe!'
So, now that the gloves are off, does Coleman have a ghost of a chance? The pincers are closing on Republicans, says the giggling media gleefully. Coleman beats Mondale? Fuggedaboutdit!, elated pundits laugh. Too many hurdles, too many mountains to climb, proclaims Conventional Wisdomism. Pulling Mondale out of mothball was a masterstroke, it's Missouri all over again, say Beltwayers. Mondale will lock the empathy vote, ride a tidal wave of sympathy to victory next week. For Democrats, this election is in the bag.
Oh, really?
Memo to Dems: Ever heard of not counting chickens before they hatch?'
I say, 'thou celebrateth too much.'
Walter Mondale, a washed-up 'has-been' in his twilight years, political prima donna? The notion doesn't square in a state that elected Jesse Ventura for governor, eschews machine politics and prides itself in nonconformity. Minnesota, which relishes the unconventional, is a horse of a different color. Those drawing analogies to Missouri don't know which end is up.
JESSE VENTURA
"THE BEST GOVERNOR
MINNESOTA HAS HAD IN A LONG TIME!"
Moreover, last time I checked, Walter Mondale isn't even a widow -- just a jaded retread who hasn't won statewide office in 30 years. Name recognition? Yes, but Coleman has it too, without the baggage: Norm is no 49-state flameout like Mondale. Name I.D. isn't all it's cracked up to be.
Another factor: The burgeoning Green Party movement in Minnesota. The Greenies were drawing considerable Democrat defections, cutting into Wellstone's support, which made the race all the more tighter.
Will Wellstone voters now rally behind Walter Mondale, now without even a fig-leaf of avant-garde populism to motivate them?
Don't bet on it.
Can Coleman lose? Yes, but don't bet on that, either. (Internal GOP polls have Coleman and Mondale neck-and-neck and less than 50% of Minnesota voters were old enough to vote in Mondale's last Senate race in 1972).
For Democrats nationally, moreover, having Walter Mondale as the Party's most visible face down the homestretch isn't exactly a terrific idea.
As Dem vultures swoop down and feast on Wellstone for political advantage, bear in mind that 'it ain't over till it's over.'
Anyway, that's...
My two cents...
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