Hurricane Lili Now A Category 4

TWC | 10-02-02 | my favorite headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Category 4 storm now....we are talking Andrew style now.

[CedarDave]

What does that imply? Still see it here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml.

[newsperson999]

Eye is covered up by cirrus now..may just be an eye wall replacment cycle..also do you know if that Sat eclispe is over?

[Conservababe]

I just talked to my family in Lafayette and Breaux Bridge, La. I was trying to get them to evacuate hours and hours earlier, but they refused. Now, they are afraid, as winds are very strong even now. My sister, who works at a motel, says that the civil defense units staying there have traveled north this afternoon. Also, they say that I-10 has been closed to north bound traffic above Lafayette. This is not confirmed, as it is just my family's word of the nature of the crisis.

[dennis1x]

latest recon has pressure up to 142mb, very good news, thats 4mb in the last couple hours...hopefully a trend.

eye is completely obstructed by high clouds now also...another potentially positive sign.

[dennis1x]

looks like NW to me on that radar.....up 1 over 1.

[eastforker]

And if you put a straight line on that movement,it takes lili into Texas,not so sure about an LA landfall.

[Sungirl]

Hahaha...ok...but..The average amount of sunshiny days in Buffalo a YEAR is only 35 days. That's what makes it a gray town...it's always cloudy and rainy or cold.

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

I'm not a meterologist, but the movement of the eye on N.O. dopler radar sure looks NORTH to me! Looks to be heading just west of Lake Ponchatrain. It even moved NE in one wobble.

I'm having it a little north of NW. Still heading on track - dead on to Pecan Island.

[dennis1x]

i dont know...my straight line takes it into vermillion bay in south central la.

[CedarDave]

10. Lubbock, MA

MA?? TX I think. LOL

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

eye is completely obstructed by high clouds now also...another potentially positive sign.

The pressure increase is good. Cirrus covering I suspect is an eye oscillation.

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

In fact, good eye oscillation showing on NEXRAD.

[Conservababe]

And Pecan Island is where in Louisiana?

[dennis1x]

what isnt good is flight level wind speeds.....141kt....translates to true 140mph at the surface.

i still say cat 3 at landfall.

[Sungirl]

I can't imagine getting hit with winds of 150mph for hours though....I am hoping I never experience that...and I dread it for the POOR ANIMALS.

[HAL9000]

Here is the forecast -

CAMERON-IBERIA-LOWER ST MARTIN-ST MARY-VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...CAMERON...MORGAN CITY...
NEW IBERIA
400 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2002

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY...
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTY. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH BECOMING VARIABLE 90 TO
115 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 140 MPH NEAR THE EYE. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT..TORRENTIAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 70S. VARIABLE WIND 90 TO 115 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 140
MPH NEAR THE EYE EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 40 TO 50 MPH LATE. CHANCE
OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN. BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR 90.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 70.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS 65 TO 70. HIGHS 80 TO 85.
.MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDINESS. LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. HIGHS 75 TO 80.
.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 55 TO 60. HIGHS NEAR 80.

[KC Burke]

So, based on your triangle geometry, we are talking about 7000 sq. miles of area with major effects....correct?

[Lokibob]

I just looked at the doppler radar, and I don't think the hole in the rain is the EYE of the storm.

Seems to me that it is still out of the radars range. All the clouds are moving westward which indicates that it is the fringe of the storm. The eye will show up with clouds and rain bands circling around it.

[dennis1x]

most definitely is the eye.

[greccogirl]

If you go here: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/021003/168/2dala.html

Shows a really good picture. The eye looks very defined to me!