[dennis1x]

what isnt good is flight level wind speeds.....141kt....translates to true 140mph at the surface.

i still say cat 3 at landfall.

[Chairman_December_19th_Society]

141kt....translates to true 140mph at the surface.

But 140-145 has been forecast. The wild card is how narrow the warm layer in the northern GOMEX is - NHC seems to think thin, maybe it is even thinner. Could have been churned more by Isadore than estimated.

That would cause a weakening prior to landfall.

Keep in mind, though, Lili seems to be going to an eye cycling. That would decrease wind speed slightly until the new eyewall is formed up. Waiting for next round of data.