Posted on 07/18/2002 7:00:10 AM PDT by Coop
House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) has told senior Democrats that the party could pick up as many as 40 House seats if the continuously unfolding corporate scandals can be kept on the political radar screen until November, according to sources. The figure far surpasses any that has been suggested previously - even privately - by Gephardt or any other top Democratic campaign official, all of whom have consistently indicated that the House will be won or lost by a slim margin.
"He said if this thing plays out right, we could pick up 30 to 40 seats," said one Democratic source who attended a recent meeting where Gephardt threw out the figures.
Gephardt's remarks, which were confirmed by a second source at the meeting, came on the heels of twin political developments that dovetailed with the unfolding scandals on Wall Street: revelations that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating accounting practices at Halliburton Co. when Vice President Cheney was at its helm; and re-emerging speculation about President Bush's stock trades as a board member at Harken Energy Co. more than a decade ago.
Neither new development - let alone the continuing revelations of questionable business activities in some of the country's top board rooms - has so far appeared to shift the political landscape on Capitol Hill.
But Gephardt's private remarks to colleagues would seem to underscore the political stakes Democrats see in an issue that is only beginning to set in among voters.
"As this unfolds day after day, I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be turned out [of power] and the Democrats will be given a chance to get at this cowboy mentality [in Corporate America]," said Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas), a chief deputy whip.
Asked whether he believes Democrats could do as well as Gephardt has suggested privately, Sandlin said, "I think there's certainly the possibility of [40 seats] as Corporate America unravels before our very eyes."
A similar outlook has taken hold across the Caucus. One top Democratic strategist, referring to only the latest accounting scandal on Wall Street, even went so far as to say, "I tell you [that if] you drop another WorldCom thing in September, the Republicans are really [screwed]."
Gephardt has certainly appeared confident that the issue of corporate ethics will ultimately play out to the Democrats' benefit.
Meeting with the top leadership Tuesday afternoon, Gephardt opened by advising Members to read a Paul Krugman column in that day's New York Times that accused President Bush of shady land dealings and cronyism in Texas. He also touted a similarly themed story in the New Yorker magazine.
"[Gephardt] said he thinks this is where the whole thing is headed," said one source who was in the room.
Republicans have suspected from the outset that Gephardt and the House Democrats would try to capitalize on the corporate scandals for political advantage - what White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer has called the "secret plan" to keep the issue alive through the elections.
Steve Schmidt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, accused Gephardt of saying that he wants to restore confidence to the markets, while at the same time sowing anxiety among investors and "cheerleading for the market to decline" in order to gain politically.
"He's trying to talk down the market," Schmidt said. "If he's saying [the Democrats could make major gains], he is basically saying, 'I want to exploit this politically. I don't want to solve this.' "
Rejecting those criticisms, Gephardt has repeatedly pointed to his calls for quick House action on a package of reforms, put forward by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.), which passed that chamber 97-0.
In fact, Gephardt has accused Republican leaders of foot-dragging on reform, presumably in the interest of placating GOP benefactors in corporate America. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Gephardt cited reports that suggested strong resistance to the Sarbanes measure among key Republicans, particularly House Financial Services Chairman Mike Oxley (R-Ohio).
"It's always the same with them," Gephardt said. "It's like [they're] trying to get something done, but really [the plan is to] slow it down and water it down. That's their goal, that's their game plan, that's their strategy."
Gephardt spokesman Erik Smith said he had never heard Gephardt privately suggest the party could ride the corporate scandals to a landslide this November. He also suggested that 40 seats would be an unlikely prediction, since Gephardt has said only 40 districts are in play this year.
"I don't think he believes we could win all 40," Smith said.
But Smith added that Gephardt does believe that the political climate is now "better that at any other point this cycle," in large part because of revelations of wrongdoing in corporate board rooms.
"He said we're in an environment where winning the House is becoming more and more of a reality," Smith said. "He's bullish."
The upcoming one-year anniversary of Sept. 11 and the ongoing debate over the creation of a Department of Homeland Security have presented significant political hurdles, however.
Even before the corporate scandals began to unfold in earnest, Gephardt was privately expressing concern that GOP leaders would try to stretch out debate over the new department in order to draw attention away from issues the Democrats would want to raise in the home stretch before the elections.
Indeed, Republican leaders initially suggested that planning for the new department would take until the end of the year. Gephardt responded by putting forward an ambitious timetable yoked to the anniversary of the terrorist attacks, in hopes that the issue would be off the table before the campaign enters its most intense phase in the fall.
The Sept. 11 time frame has essentially been adopted. But no one yet knows what will transpire once the basic blueprint for the department, put together by a special committee of top House lawmakers, comes up against conflicting plans from powerful committee chairmen and ranking members, who have their own ideas about what should comprise the new department.
Already, Gephardt has faced strong resistance to quick action from institutionalists in the Caucus, such as Appropriations Committee ranking member David Obey (D-Wis.), who are devotees of Congressional prerogative. In the Senate, Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has threatened to filibuster the legislation.
Looks like I was thinking they were all GOP candidates but obviously that was wrong. There's a little-commented on "kick the bums out" sentiment that looks to be building among the electorate.
A recent poll has Cornyn up 51-36, Perry up 55-37, and Dewhurst up 50-40.
What congressional race are you talking about you think the Democrat's have sewn up? Both of the new seats will go GOP and the only remotely competitive one is TX-23 (Bonilla vs. Cuellar) and I don't see Bonilla losing (for many reasons I could share). I think the appointment of Texan Tony Garza as Ambassador to Mexico will help the GOP in TX, too.
I disagree. Condit and Hilliard brought it on themselves, and the rest can be attributed to redistricting - which overall made most incumbents stronger.
Steel protectionism
Kennedy Education Plan
Pork Spending
Farm Bill
Prescription Benefit
Lumber protectionism
Who needs these pseudo-Republicans, when you can vote for a Democrat and get the REAL THING?
My checkbook is closed, and my yard will have no signs, and I will work for no Republican until they recall their principles and act on them occassionally.
B.C.
Plus they demonstrate no principles whatsoever, much less an aggressive attitude against Big Stupid Government.
Is Big Stupid Government bigger or smaller under Wimp II's administration? More or less expensive?
Why should we vote for these guys? Because they're not democRats? Not good enough; there are people who want limited government and represent my views; they do not have an R or D after their name.
So you are going to punish principled conservatives along with the RINOs? That makes no sense to me.
FReepmail me, and I'll give you the names of a dozen very worthy conservative Republicans who desperately need your assistance.
To Democrats it is blood sport. Game written very large.
Democrats would prefer George Bush out of power to Saddam Hussein out of power. Indeed, if the Democrats were given a choice between a million (or even 10 million, or even 100 million) American lives and total control of government or saving the lives and being out of power -- get out the coffins, the RATS would trade your life, the lives of your family, friends and millions and millions of fellow countrymen to retake power.
I don't exaggerate. They are that obsessed...and that evil.
How many of them will have a seat in the Congress next year?
I'll repeat what I said above:
If you're not happy with the Republican leadership, focus your efforts on electing a new crop of conservative leaders to the Congress.
That's the answer, not putting yourself on the sidelines.
A University of Houston Center for Public Policy poll, conducted 6/20-29/02, surveyed 739 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (release, 7/2). Tested: Attorney General John Cornyn (R) and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D).
General election matchup:
All Wht Blk His GOP Dem Ind Con Mod Lib
Kirk 36% 32% 54% 41% 17% 56% 33% 39% 38% 46%
Cornyn 28 34 15 15 50 15 26 30 24 23
Undec. 34 33 29 42 32 28 41 31 38 28
Men Wom
Kirk 37% 36%
Cornyn 32 25
Undec. 29 39
ARTHUR FINKELSTEIN AND ASSOCIATES (R)
An Arthur Finkelstein and Associates (R) poll, conducted 6/26-27/02 for Attorney General John Cornyn (R), surveyed 500 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 7/3).
General election matchup:
All Lib Mod Con Dallas San Antonio Houston
Cornyn 37% 19% 24% 51% 35% 43% 44%
Kirk 30 64 42 19 39 27 21
Undec. 32 17 35 30 26 31 36
A Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D) poll, conducted 6/9-16/02 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, surveyed 800 registered voters; margin of error +/- 3.5% (DSCC release, 6/25). Tested: Attorney General John Cornyn (R) and former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk (D).
General election matchup: Kirk 46% Cornyn 42 Other 12
What trend do you see that I don't?
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