Gephardt Eyes Massive Gains: Party Could Pick up 40 House Seats

Roll Call ^ | 7/18/02 | Ethan Wallison

[Coop]

House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) has told senior Democrats that the party could pick up as many as 40 House seats if the continuously unfolding corporate scandals can be kept on the political radar screen until November, according to sources. The figure far surpasses any that has been suggested previously - even privately - by Gephardt or any other top Democratic campaign official, all of whom have consistently indicated that the House will be won or lost by a slim margin.

"He said if this thing plays out right, we could pick up 30 to 40 seats," said one Democratic source who attended a recent meeting where Gephardt threw out the figures.

Gephardt's remarks, which were confirmed by a second source at the meeting, came on the heels of twin political developments that dovetailed with the unfolding scandals on Wall Street: revelations that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating accounting practices at Halliburton Co. when Vice President Cheney was at its helm; and re-emerging speculation about President Bush's stock trades as a board member at Harken Energy Co. more than a decade ago.

Neither new development - let alone the continuing revelations of questionable business activities in some of the country's top board rooms - has so far appeared to shift the political landscape on Capitol Hill.

But Gephardt's private remarks to colleagues would seem to underscore the political stakes Democrats see in an issue that is only beginning to set in among voters.

"As this unfolds day after day, I think there's a good chance the Republicans will be turned out [of power] and the Democrats will be given a chance to get at this cowboy mentality [in Corporate America]," said Rep. Max Sandlin (D-Texas), a chief deputy whip.

Asked whether he believes Democrats could do as well as Gephardt has suggested privately, Sandlin said, "I think there's certainly the possibility of [40 seats] as Corporate America unravels before our very eyes."

A similar outlook has taken hold across the Caucus. One top Democratic strategist, referring to only the latest accounting scandal on Wall Street, even went so far as to say, "I tell you [that if] you drop another WorldCom thing in September, the Republicans are really [screwed]."

Gephardt has certainly appeared confident that the issue of corporate ethics will ultimately play out to the Democrats' benefit.

Meeting with the top leadership Tuesday afternoon, Gephardt opened by advising Members to read a Paul Krugman column in that day's New York Times that accused President Bush of shady land dealings and cronyism in Texas. He also touted a similarly themed story in the New Yorker magazine.

"[Gephardt] said he thinks this is where the whole thing is headed," said one source who was in the room.

Republicans have suspected from the outset that Gephardt and the House Democrats would try to capitalize on the corporate scandals for political advantage - what White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer has called the "secret plan" to keep the issue alive through the elections.

Steve Schmidt, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, accused Gephardt of saying that he wants to restore confidence to the markets, while at the same time sowing anxiety among investors and "cheerleading for the market to decline" in order to gain politically.

"He's trying to talk down the market," Schmidt said. "If he's saying [the Democrats could make major gains], he is basically saying, 'I want to exploit this politically. I don't want to solve this.' "

Rejecting those criticisms, Gephardt has repeatedly pointed to his calls for quick House action on a package of reforms, put forward by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Paul Sarbanes (D-Md.), which passed that chamber 97-0.

In fact, Gephardt has accused Republican leaders of foot-dragging on reform, presumably in the interest of placating GOP benefactors in corporate America. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Gephardt cited reports that suggested strong resistance to the Sarbanes measure among key Republicans, particularly House Financial Services Chairman Mike Oxley (R-Ohio).

"It's always the same with them," Gephardt said. "It's like [they're] trying to get something done, but really [the plan is to] slow it down and water it down. That's their goal, that's their game plan, that's their strategy."

Gephardt spokesman Erik Smith said he had never heard Gephardt privately suggest the party could ride the corporate scandals to a landslide this November. He also suggested that 40 seats would be an unlikely prediction, since Gephardt has said only 40 districts are in play this year.

"I don't think he believes we could win all 40," Smith said.

But Smith added that Gephardt does believe that the political climate is now "better that at any other point this cycle," in large part because of revelations of wrongdoing in corporate board rooms.

"He said we're in an environment where winning the House is becoming more and more of a reality," Smith said. "He's bullish."

The upcoming one-year anniversary of Sept. 11 and the ongoing debate over the creation of a Department of Homeland Security have presented significant political hurdles, however.

Even before the corporate scandals began to unfold in earnest, Gephardt was privately expressing concern that GOP leaders would try to stretch out debate over the new department in order to draw attention away from issues the Democrats would want to raise in the home stretch before the elections.

Indeed, Republican leaders initially suggested that planning for the new department would take until the end of the year. Gephardt responded by putting forward an ambitious timetable yoked to the anniversary of the terrorist attacks, in hopes that the issue would be off the table before the campaign enters its most intense phase in the fall.

The Sept. 11 time frame has essentially been adopted. But no one yet knows what will transpire once the basic blueprint for the department, put together by a special committee of top House lawmakers, comes up against conflicting plans from powerful committee chairmen and ranking members, who have their own ideas about what should comprise the new department.

Already, Gephardt has faced strong resistance to quick action from institutionalists in the Caucus, such as Appropriations Committee ranking member David Obey (D-Wis.), who are devotees of Congressional prerogative. In the Senate, Appropriations Committee Chairman Robert Byrd (D-W.Va.) has threatened to filibuster the legislation.

[Coop]

"He's trying to talk down the market," Schmidt said. "If he's saying [the Democrats could make major gains], he is basically saying, 'I want to exploit this politically. I don't want to solve this.' "

I'm sorry. This is a weak response. Where's the powerful mention of Corzine or McAuliffe?? Strongly discredit them and be done with it.

"[Dick Gephardt] said we're in an environment where winning the House is becoming more and more of a reality," Smith said. "He's bullish."

Slightly rearrange the letters and replace the forgotten "T," and I agree completely.

[tomahawk]

Gephardt is an enemy of America.

[LS]

Talk about living on Mars, old "ET" here has lost it. I'm telling you, just based on redistricting, the GOP will gain at minimum a few seats (4-5) and if somehow the Dems get painted as obstructionists, say by another attack or by a big victory in the War on Terror, the 30 seat gain is going to be on the other side of the aisle, "little Dick."

[coloradan]

He said if this thing plays out right, we could pick up 30 to 40 seats,"

What happens when the government goes from trying to protect civil rights, secure the borders, and so forth, to trying to play a game against other members of government. Government isn't a game - or is it?

[Coop]

Government isn't a game - or is it?

No, but politics is.

[Movemout]

LOL! I agree completely. The dims have been delusional since Newt foreclosed on the house. The more delusional they become the better!

[spudsmaki]

The Republican Party has written off the Great Lakes. Jennifer Granholm will sweep Michigan, Scott McCallow is going nowhere in Wisconsin. And in Illinois, Pubbie guv candidate Jim Ryan has called for Pubbie guv George Ryan to resign his office because of the licenses for bribes scandal. The Illinois party apparatus has disintegrated.

Maybe the party will do OK in FL and the rest of Dixie. I hope so, anyway, because I sure don't see a plan.

[Coop]

They are very confident of winning the House back...just like they were in 2000... and 1998... and 1996...

But let's not kid ourselves. The Republicans need to take this corporate scandal threat very seriously. They appear to be doing that, but as I noted above, I'm not too impressed with the responses. Tie the Dems to this mess immediately, and then let it die its own death.

[RCW2001]

40 seats would be a bit much, however, sadly, I do believe the GOP will lose the Congress 2002. BTW...the GOP has no one else to blame other than their own leadership (or lack thereof, rather).

[aristeides]

The Democrats gained eight Senate seats in the elections of 1930. I believe they also had substantial gains in the House, although I'm not sure of the number. They then proceeded to use their strengthened position in the Congress to pursue obstructionist tactics in 1931-2, in the hopes, eventually realized, that the result would be the election of a Democratic president.

[Coop]

Jennifer Granholm will sweep Michigan

Granholm may not even survive Bonoir.

[Coop]

the GOP has no one else to blame other than their own leadership (or lack thereof, rather).

Blah, blah, blah...

[Dan from Michigan]

40 seat? WTF.

[EternalVigilance]

The Democrat operatives in the media are working hard to reinforce this too.

Last night I flipped on ABC News, and watched as they ran several not-so-thinly disguised hit pieces on the President and the Vice-President that more as less took it as a given that their past performances in corporate America were corrupt.

I agree with those who say that our side is doing a lousy job of fighting back, as usual.

EV

[section9]

Meeting with the top leadership Tuesday afternoon, Gephardt opened by advising Members to read a Paul Krugman column in that day's New York Times that accused President Bush of shady land dealings and cronyism in Texas. He also touted a similarly themed story in the New Yorker magazine.

"[Gephardt] said he thinks this is where the whole thing is headed," said one source who was in the room.

Now this should be very revealing even to the most casual observer. Anyone who puts intellectual stock in the most partisan columnist that the New York Times employs should be taken out and horsewhipped into good sense.

The American people know when all this nonsense began. Gephardt is merely believing his own propaganda. That is always fatal in politics.

Gephardt is trying to tie this to Harken Energy. He's really trying to use that? God, one would hope so. Indeed, this dog ain't even hunting. What we really need are for the Rats to go bonkers, come about September, and start criticizing Bush for his handling of the war.

Be Seeing You,

[hchutch]

Nice guys finish last. We need to be a bit more aggressive - but we have to pick our fights carefully. Find where we have an advantage, and then attack.

[Dan from Michigan]

Granholm has to face Bonior and Blanchard.

And she isn't THAT good. The media loves her, but when she's exposed outside the cameras, she has no substance.

[Dan from Michigan]

BTW - GO BLANCHARD

(until August)

[EternalVigilance]

Nice guys finish last. We need to be a bit more aggressive - but we have to pick our fights carefully. Find where we have an advantage, and then attack.

Totally agree.

[3AngelaD]

Guys, guys. You have to consider the source. Roll Call is a left-wing, badly edited gossip rag read only by political junkies on Capitol Hill. I am sure that at some point, Roll Call printed a story about the sun rising in the west. All this is wishful thinking on the part of the Dems and their fellow-traveling/useful idiot writer at Roll Call. That said, the Republicans aren't playing their cards right. Hope someone wakes up.