🚨BREAKING: Nate Silver just added three points to Trump’s winning probability.
Officially passing Kamala Harris in his model.
pic.twitter.com/By7rWE2tUz— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 17, 2024
Posted on 10/18/2024 7:26:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Republicans should keep the champagne on ice until the election results are official and act like we’re trailing due to the institutional goliaths we’re facing this election cycle—but one thing cannot be denied: we’re in good shape to win the election. It’s not over, but Joe Biden had a seven-point advantage over Trump in 2024. There’s no pandemic. And Kamala Harris is irritating everyone. Even the most ardent Trump-hater cannot deny that the former president is polling better than ever. While it’s a tight race, Trump has reclaimed the advantage in Nate Silver’s Electoral College projection:
🚨BREAKING: Nate Silver just added three points to Trump’s winning probability.
Officially passing Kamala Harris in his model.
pic.twitter.com/By7rWE2tUz— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 17, 2024
The Electoral College race remains as close to 50/50 as it gets. But with some good polls for Trump entering our database today, like a 2-point lead in a high-quality national poll and a big lead in Georgia (though he trails in North Carolina in the same Quinnipiac poll), if you squint at the probabilities, you’ll see Trump 50.2%, Harris 49.5%. (There’s an 0.3% chance of a 269-269 tie).
That’s not much different from yesterday’s forecast of Harris 50.3%, Trump 49.4%. But however nominal, it’s Trump’s first lead in our model since Sept. 19. There’s a good chance that the lead will continue to shift back and forth, akin to a 110-109 basketball game late in the fourth quarter.
Kamala Harris’ stock has only gone down since her media blitz. She lost five points in a month to Trump in NBC News’ latest poll. Her favorability also took a near-10-point dip. She’s massively underwater among core Democratic voter groups. It’s not looking good, and we’re thankful that Harris is an abysmal candidate who could never answer basic questions, like how she’d be different than Joe Biden.
Silver’s explanation about whether Trump has momentum is couched in elliptical language, as he’s covering all the bases. However, he did not know that the blue wall is where Trump is no longer an underdog. That has to make Democrats nervous:
That’s not much different from Trump’s 49.4 percent chances yesterday: the difference is that he wins the Electoral College an additional 1 time out of 125. But Trump is past the 50-yard line — and above Harris’s chances, which are 49.5 percent1 — for the first time since Sept. 19. (Harris remains a clear but not overwhelming favorite in the popular vote, but that’s not how American elections are decided.)
[…]
I’ve already used the “m-word” twice — momentum — without formally defining it, and the formal definition is important. Does the fact that Trump’s chances have increased from 42 percent to 50 percent imply that they’ll continue to increase? Hold that thought, though, because I think I owe you a rundown of where Trump’s odds have improved. There are some pretty consistent patterns at the state level:
It’s basically the Blue Wall states. Trump has gone from being almost a 2:1 underdog in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania at his nadir to close to 50/50 now. Outside of the Blue Wall (and Florida) the changes are incremental. But the Blue Wall states have a combined 61 percent chance of being the tipping-point state, so they really take a bite out of Harris’s Electoral College chances. The closest thing to a bright spot for Harris is North Carolina, which has surpassed Wisconsin in tipping-point odds and could give Harris an out if she loses one of the Blue Wall states (but probably not more than one of them).
Democrats thought Kamala would be trouncing Trump—she isn’t. The Blue Wall is starting to look vulnerable, with reports of a shambolic operation in Pennsylvania. It’s why Joe Biden and Barack Obama seemed so despondent at Ethel Kennedy’s funeral this week. Both men know this isn’t an ideal position. The only question is whether Trump can close the deal and whether there will be any shenanigans when the ballots are counted.
Trump is supposed to be happy he will get 264 electoral votes? Did the author read the article he is writing?
Those predicted electoral votes do not look good.
How can Trump have a higher probability of an electoral college victory when Harris has a higher number of predicted electoral votes? What am I missing?
How the hell could the race be this close? She is an absolute embarrassment....
How the hell could the race be this close? She is an absolute embarrassment....
Propaganda from our corporate media and our education system.
Does Nate Silver factor vote fraud into his calculations?
That could easily turn the tide, just as it did in 2020.
It doesn’t make sense.
The first column shows Trump with a 50.2% chance of getting an electoral college victory...then three columns over, it shows Heels up Harris with an electoral college victory of 273.
WTH?
A badly-skewed EV. If he runs sims, some of the scenarios has Kamala corn-stomping. Most of them don’t. Therefore, his mean occurs to the left of his median and the results look weird.
It’s a result of the math of his model. His model assigns a probability to each possible result of the election in terms of EC votes for each candidate. The 50.3% chance is the total probability of all scenarios where Trump gets 270 or more. The 273 is Kamala’s average EC vote total in the model.
This is not inconsistent by any means. Consider as an example a simpler model where Kamala gets either 360 EC votes with a probability of 40% or she gets 260 with a probability of 60%. This model would give her a 40% chance of winning but an average EC vote total of 0.4x360 + 0.6x260 = 300. Both of these are mathematically correct statements about this model.
In like fashion, a win probability of 49.7% and an average EC vote total of 273 is not indicative that Silver’s model is flawed. Of course, it may be flawed, but this apparent inconsistency is not proof of that.
The Probability in the first column accounts for the 3rd party. The Predicted outcome in the third column excludes the irrelevant 3rd party as it won’t be awarded any EVs.
Good explanation.
3 generations lost to education system, hollywood and msm.
The voters’ opinions about Trump are largely set in stone. The voters opinions about Harris are not yet totally set in stone. Her numbers could drop if the voters begin to see beyond the protective facade that the media have constructed for her.
But I do think that now a lot of people who don’t necessarily like Trump, or even think he’s a jerk, respect his perseverance and believe that’s a good trait to have as a leader.
LOL, if voter fraud and cheating are in the numbers, then you can wipe your butt will the Silver Bulletin.
This is an installation not an election.
And immigration and very different demographics since Magnus era
And immigration and very different demographics since Magnus era
Driven by the propaganda that labels anyone opposing it as ‘racist’ and ‘xenophobic’.
It’s a bit bizarre.
Who cares what an algorithm says if it is polling dependent. Just look at the poll. There is no added information from the algorithm.
We all know that you are voting for Harris, now piss off, Trump hater.
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