Pennsylvania Ping!
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Posted on 10/09/2024 11:47:37 AM PDT by willk
PENNSYLVANIA: Harris 49%, Trump 46%, other candidates 2%
MICHIGAN: Trump 50%, Harris 47%, other candidates 2%
WISCONSIN: Trump 48%, Harris 46%, other candidates 2%
(Excerpt) Read more at poll.qu.edu ...
I wouldn’t trust my life with a Quinnipiac Poll.
How accurate were they in ‘16 and in ‘20?
Would love to see Trump win EVERY swing state AND Nevada.
Not for one second do I believe Harris is leading PA, let alone by 3 points
Its impossible to believe that Trump is winning Michigan and Wisconsin but is supposedly down in PA, its NOT possible..and if Trump wins Wisconsin and Michigan the race is over anyway
Pennsylvania Ping!
Please ping me with articles of interest.
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They’re factoring in the machine in The City of Cream Cheese.
Exactly
I think we can take PA...it means getting out the vote to overcome the heavy Dem areas. Look at the 2020 map. I’ll find it.
I think it’s fair to subtract 3-5 points from the Democrat for any poll conducted by Q.
Quinnipiac was way off in Oct 2020:
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3803
With less than two weeks until Election Day, likely voters support former Vice President Joe Biden over President Donald Trump 51 - 41 percent in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University national poll. This is the third national survey among likely voters since September that shows Biden with a 10-point lead, as Biden led Trump 52 - 42 percent on both September 2nd and September 23rd.
Quinnipiac should close down their operation. What an embarrassment!
It’s not about what happens in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Georgia; it’s what happens in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Atlanta. Are they willing to do it again for Kamala? She is pretty awful, but the polls will remain tight in order to give it some degree of plausibility just in case.
How heavy did they oversample Dims?
If Trump is tied or up in a Q poll this race is heading into landslide territory
A summary of the accuracy of the mainstream polling firms, from the final pages of the Atlas Intel September 14, 2024 poll report:
Paraphrased by me...
Average error of national and state-level polls in the 2020 US Presidential Election
[polls released in the final week before election day]
Polling Group Error Rate Atlas Intel 2.01 Wick 2.45 Trafalgar Group 2.45 Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage 3.00 Harris Insights & Analytics 3.01 Rasmussen Reports 3.32 RMG Research 3.64 Emerson College 3.93 Data for Progress 4.28 Marist College 4.63 Gravis Marketing 4.63 Change Research 4.70 Swayable 4.74 Morning Consult 4.83 Ipsos 4.87 Research Co. 4.96 SurveyMonkey 5.21 Siena College/New York Times 5.26 YouGov 5.27 Monmouth University 5.41 Civiqs 6.02 ABC News/WaPo 6.30 Public Policy Polling 6.40 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 6.49 USC Dornsife/LA Times 6.71 CNN/SSRS 7.05 Quinnipiac University 8.45
-PJ
None of the public polls come close to what some of the private ones do. They are accurately measuring the party distributions and they determine who is likely to vote with much more accuracy.
The polls that the campaigns have already told them who is going to win this election. It is interesting to watch the “energy” of the campaigns going into the last week.
They had Clinton beating Trump by 5 in Pennsylvania in 2016. She lost PA.
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