Posted on 10/09/2024 9:56:52 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin
Wisconsin's Senate race between incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde was reclassified as a "toss-up" by a major election forecaster on Tuesday, less than a month to Election Day.
Baldwin has been viewed as favored in the Badger State, which remains viewed as a toss-up in the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. But the Cook Political Report reclassified it from "Lean Democrat" to a "toss-up" after their latest poll showed her lead shrink to only two points, within the margin of error.
Baldwin and Hovde are facing off in what is expected to be one of the closest Senate races ahead of November 5, when control for the Senate is up for grabs. Republicans are increasingly optimistic about their chances of flipping the Senate due to a spade of strong polls in the Montana race, making it all the more important for Democrats to defend seats they currently hold to have a shot at retaining their slim control.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
In before the “Hovde has no chance” crowd chimes in.
GOP will take the Senate!
It would be great to smash that “blue wall”, but there hasn’t been one single poll — yet — showing Hovde in the lead. Wisconsin isn’t California, where a freakazoid like Tammy Baldwin would be a shoo-in. Wisconsin can’t possibly keep sending this thing back to the Senate time after time; her luck’s gotta run out at some point.
TERM LIMITS
TERM LIMITS
TERM LIMITS
However, closing to -2 in an unfriendly poll with almost a month to go is encouraging. It seems everyone agrees that Hovde is surging and within striking distance. The new circumstances have the right people in panic mode.
I’m very cautious about this, but I think we might see a real Red Wave this November if things go the way they’re looking to go. I think the Dems are intent on stealing NC as that was their alternative steal in 2020 (within 75k vote margin), but they might get beaten outright. 4 more weeks of Kamala flailing might end them and a lot of coattails.
I’m calling GOP +4. WV, MT, 2 of these 4: OH, PA, WI, or NV. No GOP losses.
Hovde still has to beat the margin of fraud even if he does obtain a polling lead, but it is quite encouraging to see the Democrats getting very nervous about this one. They should be nervous about MI and PA Senate races too; not so much AZ and NV which are going down the toilet for the Republicans.
Hopefully they’ll have reason to be more than merely nervous when the MI and PA results come in.
Imagine if the Republicans also pick up a Senate seat in deep, dark blue Maryland (which they won’t, but the Rats still might get a bit of a scare there).
“I’m very cautious about this, but I think we might see a real Red Wave this November if things go the way they’re looking to go. “
This time they don’t have COVID nonsense nor Linsey Graham making abortion pronouncements. COVID blew 2020 and Linsey messed up 2022
Nevada? Not likely at all.
One recent outlier poll has it close there, but it’s almost certainly safe for Resen.
Otherwise, +3 or +4 in the Senate is well within the grasp of the GOP.
But if/when it only turns out to be +2 — which still gives the Republicans numerical (albeit nominal***) control, it will be like 2022 all over again, with people being bitterly disappointed that the “red wave” they desperately wished for never materialized.
*** 51-49 isn’t true “control” of much when the 51 includes Murkowski, Collins & Graham. And many other squishes.
If any Republican Senate candidate has to lose, I hope it is Hogan. IMO he is better than the tax cheat by the slimmest of slim margins.
A lot will hinge on the WOW counties...
Waukesha
Ozaukee
Washington
All three counties suburbs of Milwaukee.
Hovde also needs to do better than expected in the labor-oriented cities like Superior, Eau Claire, Wisconsin Rapids, etc.
He would only be a thorn in Trump’s side if he wins.
all for naught if RINO/CCP mitch mcconnell is not removed and replaced by MAGA majority leader.
I’d be surprised if our side does not take back the seat in Ohio.
Also glad to see no one is relying on hogan in MD anymore.
That doesn’t make any sense - you seriously are arguing the Senate has not operated differently under Schumer than it did under McConnell? Schumer would have gotten those 3 Supreme Court justices through for Trump? Record numbers of Trump nominees confirmed? CRAs through, tax reform through, etc.
You believe Schumer would have done that? That’s insane.
But it especially doesn’t make any sense given he isn’t going to be even running for leadership anymore...he’s not even going to be in the running to be “removed and replaced.”
Ron Johnson is from Wisconsin; it shows the state isn’t completely brain dead.
Under current trends, your prediction seems reasonable.
So there's a margin of fraud in the elelction but not in the polls??
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