Posted on 09/18/2024 8:01:06 PM PDT by thegagline
Vice President Kamala Harris edges former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as more voters see Harris as the candidate who will help the middle class, and Hispanics and independents swing in her direction.
The new Fox News national survey finds a 3 percentage-point shift among registered voters in the 2024 presidential contest since mid-August. Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50%-48%. For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.
This marks the first time Harris has hit 50% support, and the trial ballot result is identical among both registered and likely voters. That’s unsurprising given most Americans who are willing to spend time answering a political survey are also probably going to vote.
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The biggest change since last month is that independents and Hispanics have swung Harris’ way. Hispanics favored Trump by 6 points in August, but they go for Harris by 12 points today. Independents went for Trump by 8 points last month, but now prefer Harris by 12. It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here.***
Harris’ strongest backing comes from Black voters, urban voters, those under age 30, voters 65 and over, college graduates and women. She’s narrowly ahead in union households, a group that Biden won by low double-digits. Her numbers also still trail his 2020 pre-election numbers a bit among Blacks and young voters. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Fox is as reliable a news source as ABC is
there are dozens and dozens of so called "respectable" polling agencies. 90% of them are significantly wrong. They have become "news" for media companies that no longer employ investigative journalists and need this stuff to fill air time to sell ads, very lazy and seriously incompetent.
Fox polling always leans heavily left. Heavily.
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Anyone know why? Sampling method? Leftists deleting Republican data points?
They are, much more stupid than you can imagine.
If Kam and Tim defeat Trump America will become a third World Country with the loss of World Reserve Dollar, rampant inflation, worthless dollar, loss of most Social Security programs, destruction of law and order and worst of all starvation for many.
Fox News Poll
Like most polls they have nothing to do with reality if a issue it’s more of a persuasion tool to go the route their pimping think of a massive TV ad list.
later
I’m seeing far more Trump yard signs in my middle class (perhaps upper middle class) Boston suburb than I saw in ‘16 or ‘20. Of course I see more Kommie yard signs but the balance is much more in DJT’s favor this year.
There is no such thing as left leaning or right leaning.
There will be turnout models that differ. They may differ to result in varied results, but they are all making a call about turnout.
Some may use the Census to define D/R/I party mix in turnout, and they make their 1000+ phone calls and toss out respondents if they already have enough D or R or I. The Census defined that, not the pollster, and the Census is 2021, quite old now. But other pollsters may use a different source of D/R/I. Maybe actual checking of Secy of State sites for states — and of course that will run into problems with the several states who do not register by party.
When pollsters hire spokespeople from both sides, you will get interpretation text that is slanted, but the data itself derives from turnout model. If they expect extra black turnout because of Harris, if they expect extra women turnout because of Harris, these are not unreasonable expectations. They may be wrong, but not unreasonable.
Which is why these polls are pretty tightly clustered. None are coming in with 15 point leads in both directions. They are almost all within MOE.
Oh and btw, national results vs battlegrounds.
Calif and NY have huge leads with huge populations. The big Trump population states of TX and FL do not have huge leads. Huge as in 20+%. NY and Calif will show that while TX and FL do not.
This does mean that 2-3% national lead likely points to a battleground Trump victory. There are claims, just a few floating around out that, that Trump’s improvement in CA and NY lessen this effect and one cannot rely on 2-3% being an Electoral College win.
My own personal examination of the latest CA and NY results does not support this presumption of Trump improvement in those states. They do not look different from 2020’s numbers, at least not outside MOE. But note there are few NY or CA polls. Nobody has put money into that.
There are also more 3rd party people in those states this year vs 2020. To my surprise the actual 2020 Wiki results for NY say only about 1% of the vote went anywhere other than Biden or Trump. That means nobody else was on the ballot.
Bennie Johnson damn liar!
It will be like the Arizona gubernatorial election in ‘22. Same strategy, same result.
“Harris is dominating and controlling the air war / living room campaign. A repeat of 2020. Harris ads on many media outlets with zero presence from Trump - again.”
When it comes to the various ads I’m seeing on my phone and online, they are 100% Harris. I have not gotten a single Trump ad.
100%. Oodles of bucks flowing down the chute to beguile the low info meme worshippers. The dark and distorted pictures of Donald are textbook manipulative psych-warfare, and well executed.
Some of Trump’s ads are awful. Who the heck thought the Boarder Czar beach party footage was a good ad?
Siena poll has Trump down only 13 points in NY, which is a 10 point improvement from 2020.
Unfortunately there is very little improvement in the actual battleground states where it counts.
Exactly.
I call Bea Ess on this.
Has Faux called AZ for the Kackler, yet?
Siena poll has Trump down only 13 points in NY, which is a 10 point improvement from 2020.
Unfortunately there is very little improvement in the actual battleground states where it counts.
Siena poll is run by a known Democrat, grain of salt.
More gloom and doom.
You may return to your bunker now—and don’t forget the anti-depression meds.
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