Fox News Poll: National Race Between Donald Trump, Kamala Harris a Tossup

Breitbart ^ | 09/18/2024 | Paul Bois

[ChicagoConservative27]

A new Fox News poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just two points and within the margin of error.

Surveying 1,102 registered voters between September 13-16 with a margin of error +/- 3 percent, the poll showed that Kamala Harris improved her standing by three points since August, during which the two had the first presidential debate and there was a second assassination attempt on Trump’s life.

“Trump had a 1-point advantage last month, while Harris is ahead by 2 points today: 50 percent to 48 percent,” Fox News noted. “For reference, in July, Trump was ahead by 1 point over President Biden. Each of those differences falls within the margin of error.”

[Steven W.]

it’s absurd to be using registered voter polls at all really but this close to election it’s obviously all they have left.

[suasponte137]

That is a good question. I know everybody knows a registered. Voter pole is not as accurate as a likely voter. Why would they choose that option?

[Openurmind]

“The MSM polls must be fraudulently (as required) fabricated as close as needed to pull off the steal.”

Yep, bingo. It lowers the shock factor that is coming.

[dp0622]

Let’s not take that for granted. I got some old folks in the fmaily that can’t get to the polls but are set up with absentee....I’m not thrilled with absentee but if the other side is gonna use it...then we should.

There is one poll that the dolt at 538 says should be taken seriously...and it has Trump up by 3....an outlier on the list but he said don’t treat it was an outlier...it’s a poll that’s the real deal.

We shall see.

[BroJoeK]

"Means Trump is ahead."

Exactly, for several reasons:

1. Fox uses a left-leaning pollster estimated to skew their numbers by Harris +2%, meaning +2% Harris equates to a likely tied popular vote.

2. More conservative polls -- Atlas Intel, Rasmussen and Trafalgar -- still give Trump a small lead nationally and/or in "swing states", as does the left-leaning NY Times/Sienna poll.

3. Current electoral college math means a popular vote of roughly Harris +3% equates to electoral college tie -- Harris needs more than 3% popular to win the electoral college.

4. In September of 2020, iirc, Biden was ahead nationally in RCP by circa +7%, and in September 2016 Clinton lead by +5%, so Harris is trailing both Biden and Clinton.

5. Conservative polls in "swing states" (i.e., PA, GA, MI, WI, AZ, NV) show narrow Trump leads, and most of those same polls slightly overestimated Biden's percentages in 2020, and Hillary's in 2016.

Are they doing it again in 2024?
Nobody knows, but the most accurate 2020 polls were all more conservative and those show Trump today with a razor thin lead in the popular vote and in most swing states (MI & NV being still dubious).

[HamiltonJay]

This poll is garbage.

They are claiming a 20 point swing in independents and 18 point swing in Hispanics

No one can look at that and believe it for a second.

The internals of this thing have to be abysmal to make such outrageous claims

[grumpygresh]

I like many others are moving out of stocks into cash. If Harris wins, the markets will probably crash. .
But one thing is certain, the political instability will increase over the next 2-3 months.

[SunkenCiv]

• Fox News Poll: Harris tops Trump by two points The latest Fox News national survey finds 3-point shift since August [09/18/2024]

[1Old Pro]

If Trump wins PA he wins it all. Kamala against fracking and dissing shapiro might be a blunder.

[Vaduz]

Yes next Fox will have Arizona results in this Friday.