Posted on 08/11/2024 5:38:32 PM PDT by libh8er
A new survey of likely voters from Trafalgar Group has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four key swing states.
The poll released Friday shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania 46% to 44%, 1 point in Arizona 48% to 47%, 3 points in Nevada at 48% to 45%, and 4 points in North Carolina 49% to 45%.
The polls come as voters have adjusted to the reality of Harris taking over the top of the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, who announced in July that he was no longer seeking reelection. This week, Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
While Trump has consistently polled well in North Carolina and Nevada this election cycle, Pennsylvania and Arizona have fluctuated greatly. With the electoral map shifting daily, Pennsylvania might be the key to victory for either candidate with Trump winning the state in 2016 and Biden taking it in 2020.
Last week, CNN's Harry Enten said that even if Harris were to lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, she could still gain the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election by winning Pennsylvania.
The Trafalgar Group poll was taken Aug. 6-8 among 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The poll did not cite a sampling error.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Honest question
Which poll was the most accurate last few cycles ?
Also what I watch for is momentum
We will see who is coming on strong last 2-3 weeks
Also remember American la have a 2 weeks memory span
Polls mean nothing right now. Lets talk after the first debate. I have a feeling Kamala will fold during it worse then Joe did. Dems will be looking to switch again..lol
Trump needs more than this to offset the coming cheat.
Trafalgar is not a bad poll. It is one of the more accurate ones out there. It is rated B+ by Nate Silver, which is a high rating. Most polls are rated C or lower by him.
Trafalgar is considered top of the heap.
I hope so thank you.
“Trump has many supporters on X - but other major social media sites are turning into Trump-Free Zones.”
Not exactly true. My son is on Tik Tok and says there are many pro-Trump pages and accounts, with millions of views/followers. He says there are surprisingly many blacks who post positive videos in support of Trump.
Given the last 4 years, Trump should be up by 15.
I received, but didn’t answer a call that identified as “Political Polling” on my phone. The caller ID tells you who They are.
Me too. Enough Kamala ads. They are a waste of our time and fortunately her money
They have to show him just barely leading so when they declare ineligible K, they can just shrug their shoulders.
Trafalgar was very inaccurate in 2020 and 2022.
Dont know how reliable Trafalgar is, but first time I heard of them is when they had Trump winning PA in 2016. About the only one that did. Living in PA at the time, didnt have PA for Trump myself, but seeing WI going Trump, PA was icing on the cake (and MI too), with 90% of the vote in, it was impossible for hitlery to win. Of course, I recall them having T up in PA in 2020 too.
You know Owen if you look at the internal of The NY Times polls that came out yesterday with Harris +4 they are actually good news for Trump. One of my favorite things I look at in any poll is who did you vote in the previous election. In order to generate a Harris +4 they had a voter sample that was 47-41 in favor of Biden to begin with.
She as Nate Cohen pointed out just a generic democrat. As in that same poll it had Casey over McCormick in PA senate race by 16 points! I of course don’t believe that but even in their own poll Trump is over performing the GOP senate candidate by 12 points.
In other words Trump has an excellent chance of winning this despite the media falling all over the wanna be Prom Queen
You know what’s funny Ruth Bader Ginsburg believed Roe was a bad law too. He needs to hammer home when does she consider it a baby and does that baby have any protections? Does she agree with Ralph Northam? If he goes on offense he can easily neutralize her as she is lousy debater too just ask Tulsi Gabbard
Nothing was normal about 2020. Massive mail-in votes that kept trickling in for days plus state election laws that were changed on the fly allowed the steal to happen.
It’s apparently not her base that keeps her campaign afloat. It’s all the foreign and dark money that’s being laundered via ActBlue using middle class Democrat voters as a conduit, many of whom have no idea that’s being done.
Republicans didn’t arrest anyone. That was the FBI. They should be the target of your enmity. The RNC isn’t in charge of Trump’s security either. That’s the job of the Secret Service. Maybe you can email them with your concerns.
Nothing was normal about 2020 and 2022.
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