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Posted on 08/11/2024 5:38:32 PM PDT by libh8er
A new survey of likely voters from Trafalgar Group has former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four key swing states.
The poll released Friday shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania 46% to 44%, 1 point in Arizona 48% to 47%, 3 points in Nevada at 48% to 45%, and 4 points in North Carolina 49% to 45%.
The polls come as voters have adjusted to the reality of Harris taking over the top of the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, who announced in July that he was no longer seeking reelection. This week, Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
While Trump has consistently polled well in North Carolina and Nevada this election cycle, Pennsylvania and Arizona have fluctuated greatly. With the electoral map shifting daily, Pennsylvania might be the key to victory for either candidate with Trump winning the state in 2016 and Biden taking it in 2020.
Last week, CNN's Harry Enten said that even if Harris were to lose Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, she could still gain the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the election by winning Pennsylvania.
The Trafalgar Group poll was taken Aug. 6-8 among 1,000 likely voters in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The poll did not cite a sampling error.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
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right now, he is not broke. But if he put up ads now to go toe to toe with Harris matching her dollar for dollar, media outlet for media outlet, would that money be replaced to continue the fight? Harris and the Democrats don’t have that problem - their base continually forks out the cash even for candidates with no chance of winning. they fight to the bitter end...and even after the end even if they get completely trounced and defeated as badly as possible, they continue on just as aggressively as if it never happened. Our side sits back and basks in victory if we win and actually ends up losing ground. It’s been going on ever since I can remember.
I’ve explained this a lot but people still say things making it clear they don’t understand.
First, 1000 LVs in 3 states will divide, approx 333 per state. That is a huge MOE. Sample size determines MOE and that 1000 number isn’t big. For example, 600 samples is 4.5% MOE.
Trump is not really Republican, as party stalwarts would envision. He is populist, and the establishment is terrified of this. The rank and file, no concerns about it. They like it. And if Republican, even more pleased.
We do not know Trafalgar’s turnout model.
And maybe this can best make things clear. Ask yourselves this: The polls are quoting several % gain for Harris since replacing Biden. Do you think this gain is from minds that changed?
Think about this.
The answer is no. Essentially no minds changed. The pollsters decided to change their turnout models. Theirs was the minds that changed. Now the expect more blacks to turnout. Now they expect more women to turnout.
Where would they come from? From those who otherwise would have stayed home.
And that thinking fails because there no longer need be any enthusiasm elevated to get people to drive to the polls. They Don’t Have To Leave Home. Enthusiasm is not going to elevate turnout above what it already was to be.
> YouTube is saturated with her campaign ads begging for money. <
I’ve noticed that too. No mention of her goals or her policies. Just Kamala begging for money.
Now here’s the good news. In the upper right corner of the ad there are three vertical dots. Pause the ad, then tap those dots. A new window will come up.
Pick “Block ad”. It will stop that particular ad from that particular source.
Now the bad news. You still might get ads from the laughing hyena. They’ll just be from a different source. So you’ll have to block ‘em, again.
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to polling until Kamala starts doing serious interviews or at least the first debate.
Right now she’s just “generic” democrat with no platform
Well...unfortunately, some people are. But those who aren’t will react to the messaging they receive. Huge numbers of people will vote between the version of Harris they are seeing in the ads and the version of Trump they are seeing in the ads. That is Kamala Harris - the brilliant, accomplished leader America so desperately needs that is bringing us all together and giving so may people hope...vs. the uncouth Trump who brought and will bring us nothing but chaos and despair. Garbage? Yes...but this is the marketing campaign huge numbers of people will be influenced by, and their level of intelligence doesn’t matter. They are people sitting in their homes watching television who get this messaging and will be influenced by it.
And the only reason he’s stuck is because he’s already been shot once and knows it will happen again. He’s got to be careful. I think that’s why he’s doing TV interviews mostly. There’s a bounty on his head and he knows it. That’s just the way it is right now.
In Nevaduh, the Vegas unions will make the difference. In washoe (reno), transplants will do it.
Successful republican campaigns sometimes label their opponent over the Summer.
People knew KH was a lightweight leftist. I fear Trump is losing that assumption by going off message and with her media onslaught.
People wouldn’t mind the ads if he just kept articulating the core message.
It’s not the Dem base that is funding. It is the fraudulent ActBlue (RICO) scheme harvesting illegal International cash … Arabs, ChiComs, WEF and all their awful ilk.
The transformational effect of social media campaigning, however, has yet to be fully analyzed. Trump has many supporters on X - but other major social media sites are turning into Trump-Free Zones.
Pretty much anyone who's MAGA is at X right now. Meta is a joke. They'll ban you for mentioning Trump. So it's nothing but nonstop liberal propaganda.
Trafalgar was the only poll that predicted a Trump victory in 2016.
Sadly I can write a book about the deficiencies of the republican party.
They arrested an Iranian operative who was here to have Trump killed, the day BEFORE Trump was shot.
And they had lax security on him the next day.
The Republicans are doing very little about this.
I’m sure they want him dead one way or the other.
Our side is really failing to articulate what’s going on.
I’m afraid we are that stupid, and we won’t, but a pessimist by nature!
If these #s are accurate, it’s close enough for the cheat to happen again !
> I wouldn’t pay too much attention to polling until Kamala starts doing serious interviews or at least the first debate. <
If I were Kamala’s senior advisor, I’d insist on two things.
1. Do no serious interviews. The risk is too great. Instead, go on shows like ‘The View’, and take in their endless compliments.
2. Do not debate Trump. Remember, one single debate destroyed Joe Biden. Again, the risk is too great. Say you won’t debate Trump because he’s a felon, or whatever. Half the country would applaud that.
Are Kamala’s advisors smart, or are they arrogant idiots? We shall see.
The only reason I haven’t donated yet is because of the bad taste in my mouth that WinRED gave me in 2020. I donated $500 to Trump in October and then $200 to Stop the Steal in November, both via WinRED. When I looked at my December statement, they’d taken out $1300! Apparently, there was a note in tiny print that by donating I was agreeing to weekly donations. Just didn’t expect such duplicity from a conservative organization.
All Trump and Vance need to do is stay on a tight message right now, so that all reporting on them must refer to that message.
Trump seems incapable of following that simple plan.
Even if he comes out of this coma in the Fall, I’m afraid he isn’t preparing a good plan.
One major concern is he’s listening to his kids. Very nice, but where is his Manafort or even Corey L?
I agree totally. The republicans should have ditched their “vacation” and hammered on the assassination attempt daily! It’s nice to have time off, but when our own current regime in DC wants your candidate dead along with other players from Iran, Russia and China who also want him dead, it’s time for republicans to go into emergency mode-the potential assassins ARE HERE. The border is OPEN!
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