I’ve explained this a lot but people still say things making it clear they don’t understand.
First, 1000 LVs in 3 states will divide, approx 333 per state. That is a huge MOE. Sample size determines MOE and that 1000 number isn’t big. For example, 600 samples is 4.5% MOE.
Trump is not really Republican, as party stalwarts would envision. He is populist, and the establishment is terrified of this. The rank and file, no concerns about it. They like it. And if Republican, even more pleased.
We do not know Trafalgar’s turnout model.
And maybe this can best make things clear. Ask yourselves this: The polls are quoting several % gain for Harris since replacing Biden. Do you think this gain is from minds that changed?
Think about this.
The answer is no. Essentially no minds changed. The pollsters decided to change their turnout models. Theirs was the minds that changed. Now the expect more blacks to turnout. Now they expect more women to turnout.
Where would they come from? From those who otherwise would have stayed home.
And that thinking fails because there no longer need be any enthusiasm elevated to get people to drive to the polls. They Don’t Have To Leave Home. Enthusiasm is not going to elevate turnout above what it already was to be.
You know Owen if you look at the internal of The NY Times polls that came out yesterday with Harris +4 they are actually good news for Trump. One of my favorite things I look at in any poll is who did you vote in the previous election. In order to generate a Harris +4 they had a voter sample that was 47-41 in favor of Biden to begin with.
She as Nate Cohen pointed out just a generic democrat. As in that same poll it had Casey over McCormick in PA senate race by 16 points! I of course don’t believe that but even in their own poll Trump is over performing the GOP senate candidate by 12 points.
In other words Trump has an excellent chance of winning this despite the media falling all over the wanna be Prom Queen