Posted on 08/07/2024 7:12:29 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
A week after the killing of a top Hamas leader in Tehran and a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Lebanon, the Middle East is on edge. Fears of a broader regional war have been mounting amid vows of revenge from Iranian leaders that have left Israel in a state of deep uncertainty.
Why is an Iranian attack expected? Iran has vowed to avenge the death of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader who was killed in Tehran after he and other leaders of Iranian-backed militant groups attended the inauguration of the new Iranian president. Israeli leaders would not confirm or deny whether their country was behind the breach of Iran’s defenses, but Iranian leaders and Hamas officials immediately blamed Israel and vowed retaliation. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and an architect of the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, was selected as Mr. Haniyeh’s replacement.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the order.
And Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaan, said on Monday that “Tehran is not interested in escalating the regional conflicts, but it is necessary to punish” Israel.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
The ONLY question at this point is..
Does Iran have nukes?
“Does Iran have nukes?”
It has the ability and the material to make several nukes.
I believe it has missiles able to reach Israel carrying a nuke.
However, Israel has about 350 nukes I believe, and Israel is quite likely to be able to stop Iranian nuclear tipped missiles from reaching a major Israeli city.
If I’ve learned anything since 9/11, I expect the attack will come to America rather than Israel.
But Iran can lob more missiles, drones, and artillery shells at Israel than Israel's Iron Dome system can shoot down.
Expect another April Iran attack, but with more missiles and less deliberate forewarning.
April's Iran missile attack was a face-saving operation and they telegraphed as much of it as they could so that the actual effect was to make Israel expend a lot of counter-missiles at them.
This time the purpose will be to hit Israel, so there will be more security around the launches.
interesting take
It amazes me that NYT readers need to understand “why” Iran will strike Israel. The real question is “when” and “how.”
Or what if Iran simply does not attack?
Strong in a regional sense.
I sort of suspect Russia, China and whoever is running the Whitehouse have pressed the Iranians to refrain from significant actions until after November.
Quite interesting how all this is happening just prior to our election....as well Dems have learned well there’s nothing to stop their shenanigans...they can set up any trap of their choosing to carry out their plans - using anything and anyone. They love, covet and create the chaos.
Yes, she gives away for free to what Trumps usually has to pay for.... He stands above her but she is on her knees worshiping power.
Opps how did that post here in 13
Iran doesn’t want to escalate - it will be strategic pinprick strike just to say they defend their honor.
it does not have to be a missile...
And they don’t have to have the ability to produce “in house”
Have they sourced something from the Norks? Bought a “lost” one from someplace?
Fishing boat in a major port? At the border with something in the back?
No need to think BIG and missile. Or even a massive explosion.
Does not take a lot of imagination that they use as sourced nuke, detonate and then anounce they are a nuke state.
WIKI
the US’s W47 of the UGM-27 Polaris weighed only 330 kilograms (730 lb). This meant that much smaller rockets could carry these new warheads to the same range, greatly reducing the cost of the missile, making them far cheaper than bombers or any other delivery system. When Nikita Khrushchev angrily boasted that the Soviet Union was producing new missiles “like sausages”, the US responded by building more ICBMs of their own, rather than attempting to defend against them with Zeus.
Safeguard was a two-layer defense system. The long-range Spartan missile would attempt interception outside the Earth’s atmosphere. The missile’s long range allowed protection of a large geographic area. If the Spartan failed to intercept the incoming offensive missile, the high performance and high speed but short ranged Sprint missile would attempt an interception within the atmosphere. Both missiles used nuclear warheads, and they relied on destroying or damaging the incoming warhead with radiation rather than heat or blast. The Spartan carried a weapon with a 5 megatons of TNT (21 PJ) yield; the Sprint in the 1 kiloton of TNT (4.2 TJ) range.
Remote Sprint Launchers were established around the MSR main complex in order to place missile launchers closer to their intended targets, and thus reduce the flight range to the targets. Four sites were completed, and they still remain there, 10 to 20 miles (16 to 32 km) around the MSR complex in Nekoma, North Dakota.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_Program
That isn’t the only concern. If they’re just waiting for their partners including Lebanon and Syria to get prepared it will still be messy. The Iron Done success rate is 85-90 percent. If they send a ton of missiles at the same time it’ll still be horrible.
Very good post.
Israel could be hurt badly by Iran if it was limited to conventional drones and missiles but would survive as long as other Arab armies stayed out of it, imo.
“they don’t have to have the ability to produce”
They have produced many kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
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