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2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates
Business insider ^ | 08/03/2024 | William Edwards

Posted on 08/03/2024 6:22:35 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27

The US economy may have just entered a recession.

According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June and from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023.

The increase officially triggered the Sahm Rule — a recession indicator developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm — which says that the US economy is in a downturn when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5% from its 12-month low.

The gauge has a perfect track record through at least the last nine recessions.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bidendestroyseconomy; bidenrecession; bidensfault; captainobvious; downturn; indicators; jillsfault; kamalasfault; lyinkamala; maganomics; obamasfault; recession; us; williamedwards; yeahmayhave
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This will be Trump's fault somehow
1 posted on 08/03/2024 6:22:35 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
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To: ChicagoConservative27

I think Harris has already said exactly that.


2 posted on 08/03/2024 6:24:14 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy (I think women should get out of women's sports before they get hurt.)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Stock futures are down bigly. Another 1,000 drop Monday?


3 posted on 08/03/2024 6:33:47 PM PDT by Ge0ffrey
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To: ChicagoConservative27

How many recessions has it predicted that didn’t come true?


4 posted on 08/03/2024 6:37:43 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Ge0ffrey

I just checked and Monday’s futures are not even trading right now, it’s either Saturday or Sunday in most places, no markets open.


5 posted on 08/03/2024 6:39:55 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: ChicagoConservative27

We have been heading toward a recession for sometime now, so no big surprise except to those who don’t follow things. The Political pressure for a rate cut regardless of where inflation is will probably happen in September or October at the latest. The question is how much of cut, 100 basis points, 50, or 25? I lean toward 50 basis points but 25 would not surprise me.


6 posted on 08/03/2024 6:43:00 PM PDT by Captain Peter Blood
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To: Ge0ffrey

Yet Kamala has a tremendous shot at becoming the 47th president! God help us …how stupid and naïve the American people are. I guess the black community forgot all about the illegal immigrants getting a $13,000 food stamp card with a debit card of $5000 in cash MONTHLY!!!! Wrap your freaking brain around that! I hate these POS DC BASTARDS!! I hate them with a passion. And what’s going on in the UK can easily turn into a fire storm here in America as well. They have had it with the immigrants who are given the luxury of being first citizens and the hell with the British people! And don’t give me they voted for this crap because you and I know they did but not everybody voted for the government they got. EFFING CORRUPT GOVERNMENT HERE AND THERE!!!!


7 posted on 08/03/2024 6:49:15 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Rate cuts? A purely political move,…..our goose is fully cooked, $35 trillion in unpayable debt means just one thing- default. Matters not how the stock market is doing, what rates are, how much more inflation is upon us, etc.

Default is a mathematical certainty.


8 posted on 08/03/2024 6:54:03 PM PDT by delta7
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To: Captain Peter Blood

Don’t despair. I’m on a lot of sites that post comments. People don’t like Kameltoe. Even on articles from Politico, Axios, and Mediaite, people don’t want kamala.
The negative comments do not ad up with the Pretorian Guard Media that’s propping her up.


9 posted on 08/03/2024 7:05:23 PM PDT by lucky american (Had enough yet?)
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To: ChicagoConservative27
We've been in a Biden and Harris recession for 3-1/2 hours, but the last several months have been clear and will be clearer soon. Prices haven't gone down, still more illegals coming in to drive up housing and costs, unemployment is up, its been doing this since June or longer but some of the cover of fake job posts has finally caught up and even they are disappearing. People have less savings, can do less, and we're all closer to insolvency.

Living in Reno, I see first hand the growing number of homeless people, especially mentally ill and drugged, but also the people packed and trying to escape California. It's brutal and sad. People living in broken down cars and RVs, the homeless camps popping up everywhere cannot be ignored.

10 posted on 08/03/2024 7:14:36 PM PDT by Reno89519 (Biden's Given His Farewell Address, So When Is He Leaving?)
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To: Raycpa

2022 Q1 & Q2 Two consecutive quarters of negative growth usually means a recession. But no one called it. What if we have a (another) recession and no one knows? The gaslighting is phenomenal


11 posted on 08/03/2024 7:15:52 PM PDT by griswold3 ( Robespierre and Pol Pot were “unburdened by what has been” Harris the "Year Zero" candidate)
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To: Reno89519

Years, NOT hours!!!


12 posted on 08/03/2024 7:20:22 PM PDT by Reno89519 (Biden's Given His Farewell Address, So When Is He Leaving?)
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To: delta7

“$35 trillion in unpayable debt means just one thing- default”

If default means getting rid of 2 million fed employees I’m all for it.


13 posted on 08/03/2024 7:22:05 PM PDT by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute. )
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To: Captain Peter Blood

Futures trading close at 5:30PM EST (I think) on Fridays and reopen at 6PM EST on Sundays per my Etrade account...though I don’t trade futures. Options sure, but futures I’m not ready for.


14 posted on 08/03/2024 7:34:54 PM PDT by reed13k
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Biden administration will change the rules, downturn and recession means their plan is working because the economy is so good.


15 posted on 08/03/2024 7:35:56 PM PDT by maddog55 (The only thing systemic in America is the left's hatred of it!)
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Business Insider = Globalist Liberal propaganda cloaked as finance/investment news.


16 posted on 08/03/2024 7:37:33 PM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: ChicagoConservative27

Democrats will spin this downturn...

they’ll say the economy was due for a downturn because the economy was too hot to continue in that path, and that only great economies suffer downturns. Wait... did I just give democrats a great talking point? We’ll be hearing this in tomorrow’s Sunday talk shows.


17 posted on 08/03/2024 7:42:17 PM PDT by adorno (CCH)
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To: Eccl 10:2
Business Insider = Globalist Liberal propaganda cloaked as finance/investment news.

Much like The Economist of today. 40 years ago "The Economist" was a great publication. They called it like it was, relative to Economy and Politics. It no longer does and is no longer great.

18 posted on 08/03/2024 7:54:17 PM PDT by cpdiii (cane cutter, deckhand, oilfield roughneck, drilling fluid tech, geologist, pilot, pharmacist ,MAGA)
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To: Reno89519

Remove the federal deficit spending and money printing (digitizing debt) we’ve been in a 3 to 4% recession since covid.


19 posted on 08/03/2024 7:55:16 PM PDT by VTenigma (Conspiracy theory is the new "spoiler alert")
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To: Reno89519
"...Years, NOT hours..." - Wow, I was getting ready to freak!
20 posted on 08/03/2024 8:04:18 PM PDT by budj (Combat vet, second of three generations.)
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