Posted on 07/24/2024 9:11:09 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Has the Kamala Harris Anointment reset the presidential race? Has it even reset voter assessment of Harris? Pollsters have rushed into the gap to answer those questions, perhaps a bit too soon to avoid a predicted honeymoon effect of finally burying Joe Biden.
Actually, scratch that. At least in the first-blush polls, nothing much has changed at all -- not in the Trump-Biden head-to-head, and not in the Trump-Harris H2H polling either. Yet, anyway.
Yesterday, the big news came from a Reuters-Ipsos poll that showed Harris up by two points, albeit among registered voters. The numbers on that seemed a bit low as well, with Harris up only 44/42 in the two-candidate mode. However, a look at the Reuters/Ipsos series shows that their results have generally favored Biden in the past compared to other pollsters; their last Trump-Biden result was 43/41 for a +2 in a week when other pollsters had Trump up by five or six points.
CNN came out today with a poll that it claimed to show movement, but ... it wasn't much:
The likely 2024 presidential election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump begins with no clear leader, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection.
Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide to Harris’ 46%, a finding within the poll’s margin of sampling error. That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump. ...
The poll, conducted online July 22 and 23, surveyed registered voters who had previously participated in CNN surveys in April or June, both of which found Trump leading Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup.
That's not a game-changer, especially when the candidate is fresh and untouched yet by competitive campaign focus. CNN's last iteration did have Trump up six points, but it also got taken in the three days after the presidential debate. Biden's support sagged significantly in those days, which is why Democrats ginned up the Dump Biden movement and eventually pushed him out of the nomination. Harris was supposed to solve that problem, but there's no evidence that the replacement strategy is working yet.
The same holds true in a new NPR/Marist poll:
Former President Donald Trump edges Vice President Kamala Harris by one point among registered voters in a potential head-to-head matchup in the race for the White House, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll.
Trump leads Harris 46% to 45% in the poll results, with 9% undecided.
When third-party candidates are added to the field, Trump and Harris are tied with 42% each. Independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. receives 7% support, independent Cornel West and the Green Party's Jill Stein 1% each, and Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver less than 1%.
That certainly looks like Harris makes it close, except for one thing. The previous NPR/Marist iteration actually had Biden ahead by two points, not Trump. The movement in this series with Harris as the opponent was in Trump's favor, although that could just be coincidental. It was the only poll in July that showed Biden with a polling lead.
The actual data among polling aggregated by RCP doesn't show much movement at all. Trump has a narrow 1.7-point lead in the average, 47.6/45.9 over a dozen or more polls taken in the past three weeks. Pollsters had begun testing this matchup ever since the debate, and the difference between these two match-ups have been minimal at best. Some of the cross-tabs in these polls indicate more openness to Harris than Biden, but that's hardly surprising given the newness of her candidacy. And at least so far, it's not converting to any significant increase in support, not even on first blush.
Again, these are early days, if not early hours. Harris could still get a rally effect in other polling, but it hasn't shown up now in multiple polling series despite the rush to unite the party elite behind Harris. Polling previous to Biden's withdrawal didn't suggest that a wave of enthusiasm would greet Harris as his replacement either. And history has shown us -- specifically from 2019 -- that Harris doesn't gain support as she gains visibility but sheds it. Perhaps that won't be the case at this time, but Harris probably needs a big enthusiasm wave at the start in anticipation of the inevitable erosion to come.
All of this prompts the question: If Harris' polling doesn't improve right out of the gate -- or starts trending downward later in the week -- do Democrats suddenly embrace an "open process" at the convention instead of the Anointment?
Ballots win elections, not voters. There will be more ballots counted for Harris than will be counted for Trump. I’m not optimistic at all.
Or, do they get the SS snipers out and blame her death on Trump?
2vdays of wishfull thinking is starting to meet reality.
they got the slopjar blues...
the hordes of leftist/fascist zombies who identify as “liberal”, would even vote for a Mannequin dressed up in swastikas, as long as CNN and NPR steered their minds that way
The problem is pollsters and Democrats expect overnight instant gratification changes. I bet most people don’t know what to think of this, the coronation effort by Democrat leaders conflicts with the poor reputation Harris has earned. I bet most don’t care about how she was selected as she was Biden’t vice president. Despite media hyper-promotion, I don’t think Harris will get a bump in the polls as she is Biden’s DEI pick and has no merit to be a presidential candidate.
If you don’t understand the distinction, you are not qualified to be president.
She wasn't around much the past four years. Biden made Harris speak out on the border issue. She didn't do well on that. And we haven't heard from her since then.
There’s always a bump for the candidate after the convention. Once it levels out after that, the polls will get closer.
Joe and Jill Biden deeply resent the public disrespect and intense pressure generated by Obama, Pelosi, and Schumer and their allies for Biden not to seek reelection due to his deteriorating health and poor cognitive abilities. Secretly, their preferred choice in place of Biden was Sen. Mark Kelley of Arizona. With polling in hand showing that Kamala Harris would do no better than Joe Biden, he nevertheless endorsed Harris.
Why? Given the internal politics of the Democratic Party, Biden's endorsement makes Harris the inevitable and irresistible nominee in place of Biden. When Harris loses to Trump, as she almost certainly will, Joe and Jill Biden will have a full measure of payback against their tormentors in the Democratic Party. Joe Biden will then be able to say, "I beat Trump, and no other Democrat could -- not Hillary, not Kamala."
That will make Joe Biden the most credible and honored figure in Democratic politics after the beat down that Trump and the GOP seem certain to deliver this November. Even Obama will be eclipsed because Trump beat Hillary, the candidate Obama preferred in 2000 over Biden, his own VP. Indeed, Biden believes that, if Obama had endorsed him in 2000, he would have beaten Trump.
If I am correct, my analysis here will be validated by events and by post-election reporting and score-settling memoirs.
The key factor in the accuracy of these election polls is predicting turnout. The pollsters factor in how many voters from each party they think are actually going to go to the polls. This is the big wildcard, it’s an educated guess. It doesn’t matter what voters tell the pollsters, it’s whether or not they show up to vote.
CNN released a survey yesterday, 7/24, that showed 73% of Dem voters did not want Kamala to be the Dem nominee. That is just a crazy number. The Dem convention is only a couple of weeks away, Republican enthusiasm is way up, and the vast majority of Dems don’t even want Kamala to be the nominee?
My guess is a lot of the pollsters are using turnout percentages from 2020 & 2016 when Dems were excited about voting for Hillary and Biden. This can’t be the case for 2024 when nearly 3/4 of Dems don’t even want Kamala to be the nominee.
And more trouble for Dems. The Miami Herald ran a story yesterday 7/24 about Dems trouble with Hispanic voters. Trump and Kamala are dead even with Hispanic voters, and this was nationwide, not just in FL. Unheard of in past elections where Dems polled 20 or 30 points ahead of Republicans with Hispanics. Hispanics have been trending away from Dems, and they really, really don’t like Kamala. Not good news for Dems who depend on minority voters.
If “Calamity Harris” is the answer, America has been asking ALL the wrong questions.
“The key factor in the accuracy of these election polls is predicting turnout.”
I think you are ignoring the “... he who counts the votes ...” factor. Unless vote-by-mail, drop boxes, RCV, endless vote counting days, etc are curtailed it will matter not how many actually show up at the polls.
Even a dead cat bounces once.
This article is right on the money, I noticed everything mentioned here myself.
Looks like Crooks won’t be voting Harris.....
From the article: “Has the Kamala Harris Anointment reset the presidential race?”
Every one seems to be assuming that Biden was pushed out because of bad polling and consequently think that Harris was selected because she has a better chance of winning.
But what if that assumption is faulty. What if Biden’s polling was the cause of his withdrawall but what if the real cause was his ‘medical emergency’? That would explain why there has been little movement in the polls.
People don’t know who she is yet and most don’t know her policy positions which are clear as she stated them when she ran in 2020. She will likely gain black voters, but as a trade off it’s likely she’ll lose rural blue collar workers, esp. in the rust belt.
Isn’t Ms. Twinkie heading down to the border to help register those thousands of new RAT voters headed this way in their fall blitzkrieg of the U.S. Border and the Great America Gringo Piñata.
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