The key factor in the accuracy of these election polls is predicting turnout. The pollsters factor in how many voters from each party they think are actually going to go to the polls. This is the big wildcard, it’s an educated guess. It doesn’t matter what voters tell the pollsters, it’s whether or not they show up to vote.
CNN released a survey yesterday, 7/24, that showed 73% of Dem voters did not want Kamala to be the Dem nominee. That is just a crazy number. The Dem convention is only a couple of weeks away, Republican enthusiasm is way up, and the vast majority of Dems don’t even want Kamala to be the nominee?
My guess is a lot of the pollsters are using turnout percentages from 2020 & 2016 when Dems were excited about voting for Hillary and Biden. This can’t be the case for 2024 when nearly 3/4 of Dems don’t even want Kamala to be the nominee.
And more trouble for Dems. The Miami Herald ran a story yesterday 7/24 about Dems trouble with Hispanic voters. Trump and Kamala are dead even with Hispanic voters, and this was nationwide, not just in FL. Unheard of in past elections where Dems polled 20 or 30 points ahead of Republicans with Hispanics. Hispanics have been trending away from Dems, and they really, really don’t like Kamala. Not good news for Dems who depend on minority voters.
“The key factor in the accuracy of these election polls is predicting turnout.”
I think you are ignoring the “... he who counts the votes ...” factor. Unless vote-by-mail, drop boxes, RCV, endless vote counting days, etc are curtailed it will matter not how many actually show up at the polls.