Ballots win elections, not voters. There will be more ballots counted for Harris than will be counted for Trump. I’m not optimistic at all.
Or, do they get the SS snipers out and blame her death on Trump?
2vdays of wishfull thinking is starting to meet reality.
they got the slopjar blues...
the hordes of leftist/fascist zombies who identify as “liberal”, would even vote for a Mannequin dressed up in swastikas, as long as CNN and NPR steered their minds that way
The problem is pollsters and Democrats expect overnight instant gratification changes. I bet most people don’t know what to think of this, the coronation effort by Democrat leaders conflicts with the poor reputation Harris has earned. I bet most don’t care about how she was selected as she was Biden’t vice president. Despite media hyper-promotion, I don’t think Harris will get a bump in the polls as she is Biden’s DEI pick and has no merit to be a presidential candidate.
There’s always a bump for the candidate after the convention. Once it levels out after that, the polls will get closer.
Joe and Jill Biden deeply resent the public disrespect and intense pressure generated by Obama, Pelosi, and Schumer and their allies for Biden not to seek reelection due to his deteriorating health and poor cognitive abilities. Secretly, their preferred choice in place of Biden was Sen. Mark Kelley of Arizona. With polling in hand showing that Kamala Harris would do no better than Joe Biden, he nevertheless endorsed Harris.
Why? Given the internal politics of the Democratic Party, Biden's endorsement makes Harris the inevitable and irresistible nominee in place of Biden. When Harris loses to Trump, as she almost certainly will, Joe and Jill Biden will have a full measure of payback against their tormentors in the Democratic Party. Joe Biden will then be able to say, "I beat Trump, and no other Democrat could -- not Hillary, not Kamala."
That will make Joe Biden the most credible and honored figure in Democratic politics after the beat down that Trump and the GOP seem certain to deliver this November. Even Obama will be eclipsed because Trump beat Hillary, the candidate Obama preferred in 2000 over Biden, his own VP. Indeed, Biden believes that, if Obama had endorsed him in 2000, he would have beaten Trump.
If I am correct, my analysis here will be validated by events and by post-election reporting and score-settling memoirs.
The key factor in the accuracy of these election polls is predicting turnout. The pollsters factor in how many voters from each party they think are actually going to go to the polls. This is the big wildcard, it’s an educated guess. It doesn’t matter what voters tell the pollsters, it’s whether or not they show up to vote.
CNN released a survey yesterday, 7/24, that showed 73% of Dem voters did not want Kamala to be the Dem nominee. That is just a crazy number. The Dem convention is only a couple of weeks away, Republican enthusiasm is way up, and the vast majority of Dems don’t even want Kamala to be the nominee?
My guess is a lot of the pollsters are using turnout percentages from 2020 & 2016 when Dems were excited about voting for Hillary and Biden. This can’t be the case for 2024 when nearly 3/4 of Dems don’t even want Kamala to be the nominee.
And more trouble for Dems. The Miami Herald ran a story yesterday 7/24 about Dems trouble with Hispanic voters. Trump and Kamala are dead even with Hispanic voters, and this was nationwide, not just in FL. Unheard of in past elections where Dems polled 20 or 30 points ahead of Republicans with Hispanics. Hispanics have been trending away from Dems, and they really, really don’t like Kamala. Not good news for Dems who depend on minority voters.
If “Calamity Harris” is the answer, America has been asking ALL the wrong questions.
Even a dead cat bounces once.
This article is right on the money, I noticed everything mentioned here myself.
From the article: “Has the Kamala Harris Anointment reset the presidential race?”
Every one seems to be assuming that Biden was pushed out because of bad polling and consequently think that Harris was selected because she has a better chance of winning.
But what if that assumption is faulty. What if Biden’s polling was the cause of his withdrawall but what if the real cause was his ‘medical emergency’? That would explain why there has been little movement in the polls.
People don’t know who she is yet and most don’t know her policy positions which are clear as she stated them when she ran in 2020. She will likely gain black voters, but as a trade off it’s likely she’ll lose rural blue collar workers, esp. in the rust belt.
Isn’t Ms. Twinkie heading down to the border to help register those thousands of new RAT voters headed this way in their fall blitzkrieg of the U.S. Border and the Great America Gringo Piñata.
“history has shown us — specifically from 2019 — that Harris doesn’t gain support as she gains visibility but sheds it.”
That’s what a lot of people tend to forget. She is simply cringe. They are going to try to kill Trump again. The first try was better timed, but they are getting even more desperate. The cheating is a given, regardless. Keep in mind that Biden “winning” in 2020 without even campaigning isn’t really any more ridiculous than another clown “winning” this time.