Black folks move like a school of fish when it comes to politics.
Starting to turn now, reassessing their assumptions.
50%
Starting to figure out they've been lied to their whole lives.
Good for them.
Posted on 06/17/2024 8:23:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Joe Biden has recently appeared to focus many of his policy decisions involving everything from marijuana policy to the war in Gaza based on how he believes it might help him with voters in Michigan, particularly Black voters. But if the results of the latest polling out of the Great Lakes State are anywhere near accurate, Uncle Joe may want to spend a bit more time out among the people and not at glitzy, high-dollar celebrity fundraisers.
A USA Today/Suffolk poll reveals that barely half of Black Michigan likely voters (54%) support Joe Biden currently.
That doesn't automatically translate into huge gains for Donald Trump in this demographic because he was the first choice for 15% of Black respondents. But he is still registering gains while Joe Biden is undeniably losing traction. (Newsweek)
While fewer Black voters in two critical swing states plan to vote for President Joe Biden compared to 2020, former President Donald Trump has seen his support among Black voters jump into the double digits surpassing his 2020 influence, a poll published on Sunday shows.
"Biden is still the first or second choice of the vast majority, while most would avoid Trump," a USA Today/Suffolk University phone survey of 500 registered Black voters in the swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania found.
However, the poll conducted between June 9 and 13 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, also shows that the former president is gaining on his previous polling among Black voters in 2020.
When reviewing polls like these, we should always keep in mind that there is a significant difference between approval, support, and eventual voting patterns. Far fewer people may be willing to say that they approve of Biden's job performance thus far or label themselves as his "supporters," but that doesn't mean they will automatically vote for Donald Trump by any means.
Some of them may hold their nose and vote for Biden anyway, but others could either vote for a third-party option or simply stay home. Neither of those second and third options is good for Joe Biden's chances in Michigan, particularly when it comes to getting out the Black vote.
No credible political analyst believes that Donald Trump will carry a majority of the Black vote in November. But he doesn't need to. He's already doing five points better with that Demographic in Michigan than he did in 2020 and his numbers are going in the right direction. Conversely, if Biden only turns out 70% or less of the Black vote there with the rest going with some other option (he received 92% in 2020), Michigan is probably unwinnable for him.
The same poll focused on Black voters in Pennsylvania and the results were similar. Biden's support has softened considerably since 2020 while Donald Trump is registering some modest gains. Similar to the situation in Michigan, Donald Trump doesn't need to pick up all of the Black voters who are not currently supporting Biden. They will have other options. RFK Jr. is expected to make the ballot in the Keystone State, and Cornel West has been active there, so he will be available as a write-in option at a minimum. Pennsylvania was razor close four years ago, and it would take all that many voters migrating elsewhere for it to slip from Biden's grasp this time.
One Suffolk polling analyst broke down the numbers as an easy-to-grasp ratio. For every 2020 Black Biden voter who pulls the lever for Trump, Biden would need to attract an extra 13 Black voters that didn't turn out last time. That's a fairly steep hill to climb. This particular demographic is of interest to election analysts because Pennsylvania and Michigan have the exact same percentage of Black voters in the population (12.4%). That is a significant amount when a race is as close as this one is expected to be. And those voters are currently drifting away from Biden at nearly the same rate in both states. Obviously we are still too far out from November 5 to draw any firm conclusions or make predictions now, but I would wager that Donald Trump's team is seeing signs of life in quite a few states that barely slipped from his grasp four years ago.
p
They will come around to it.
Black folks move like a school of fish when it comes to politics.
Starting to turn now, reassessing their assumptions.
50%
Starting to figure out they've been lied to their whole lives.
Good for them.
Democrats: “D**n that Supreme Court decision! They escape and we can’t get them back!”
It’s the economy stupid.
Half of black voters are women. They will vote for Biden at about a 95% rate.
Activists in the GOP and party officials need to NOT believe the polls. The “good ones” can produce complacency in the party, making folks think they don’t need to fight like hell down to the wire.
And the checks keep coming.
I think that many whites, blacks, hispanics and many of the elderly are finally realizing that democrats don’t give a damn about them and were just using their votes while they turned America into a sh#thole. People aren’t stupid.
2020 PA Biden +1.2%. Michigan +2.6%.
With Blacks 12.5% of the electorate, a 10% CHANGE, not a move from Biden to Trump, just a change, wins PA. Meaning if 5% of Black voters switch, that is a 10% change. Biden minus and Trump plus. Or if 10% stay home.
Michigan will require the same change added to Dearborn Muslims staying home and Trump wins that state.
Is Joe willing to discard the Michigan black vote so he can get the Michigan Arab vote?
CC
[Oh no! This is terrible.
Black folks move like a school of fish when it comes to politics.
Starting to turn now, reassessing their assumptions.
50%
Starting to figure out they’ve been lied to their whole lives.
Good for them.]
Although black people are, on average, more socially conservative than white liberals, a significant break among black voters from the Democratic Party should be unlikely, because the Democratic Party treats black people collectively as an interest group it services, and the GOP does not.
Giving stuff to and doing stuff for black people is one of the main things the Democratic Party is about. Central to its messaging is that they do things for black people. That is why Joe Biden promised to nominate a black Supreme Court justice, and Gavin Newsom promised to fill a Senate vacancy with a black appointee.
The Republican Party’s messaging to white people isn’t as explicit, but the subtext is clear. They’re saying that the Democrats want to take stuff from “you,” their prospective voter who is probably white, and give it to “somebody else” who is probably black or an immigrant.
For black voters to switch in large numbers from the party that promises to give stuff to black people to the party that opposes giving stuff to black people, the Democrats have to err spectacularly. Basically, black people have to hate the stuff the Democrats are giving them.
One major thing the Democrats have been giving black people since 2020 is the Black Lives Matter agenda: Less policing, less traffic enforcement, less pretrial detention, less imprisonment, fewer police interactions with black men in areas where a lot of black people live.
It is possible that a lot of black people actually hate the Black Lives Matter agenda. It is possible that they are upset that people are driving sixty miles an hour down the street where their kids play. It is possible they blame Democrats for the rise in crime and disorder.
Black people bear the brunt of rising crime much more than white people do, so when white liberals believe crime is a conservative bogeyman, they think they’re being antiracist, but they’re actually dismissing the concerns of black people who are experiencing rising crime acutely.
The other thing that might be happening is that the GOP message that the Democrats are taking something from “you” and giving it to “somebody else” is appealing to black voters more than it has in previous cycles, because this time, the “somebody else” is migrants.
A lot of black voters live in large cities and a lot of migrants have flowed into those cities in the last couple of years, and black people in those cities are experiencing more negative impact from this than white liberals are.
The school gymnasium or the community center in a black neighborhood may have been turned into a shelter for migrants, or migrants may be congregating in a park in a predominantly black neighborhood. City programs that historically benefited black residents may be cut to defer funds to migrant services.
White liberals experience the migrants as, like, an unlicensed vendor selling cut mango in front of the art museum, and black voters experience the migrants as MS-13 selling fentanyl on their block.
I still have a hard time imagining that a lot of black voters are going to support Donald Trump, who, for better or worse, has successfully been tagged as a racist. But if black people are really fleeing Joe Biden, then it reveals a stunning disconnect, because the Biden administration has been more dedicated to “stuff for black people” than any Democratic administration in my lifetime.
If Biden is losing the support of black voters, then that means that crime and immigration are more important to black people than the BLM agenda, the appointment of black judges and executive branch officials, affirmative action and diversity policies, and student loan forgiveness.
Two things I would add to your analysis.
1 Obama over performed with Black voters and some of this reversion to mean.
2 There has always, to the annoyance of the Democrat race hustlers, been a segment of the black population who looked at the amount of their taxes and had the response of “Wait a sec I’m Whitey”
solution, funnel huge amounts of cash through Baptist churches and leaders, al Sharpton and the plantation owner black caucus to the people and you will get the votes
5+ decades in elected office and POSOTUS became a multi-millionaire. President Trump earned his money by working.
If you get out of the echo chamber, that’s not what I’m hearing. They still buy the Medicare/ Obamacare laws.
Trump himself has denied a used making the “Affordable CareAct” better.
Of course he also wants to pay people to have babies… he did not say taxpayers or citizens. After his big pharma blank checks… he truly believes more money will make it all better. Ignoring the real problem.
A USA Today/Suffolk poll reveals that barely half of Black Michigan likely voters (54%) support Joe Biden currently.
The Economist says Trump’s chances of winning are at 72%.
Iowa poll puts Trump up 18 points and means he probably wins Wisconsin and Minnesota as they have similar demographics.
Surrender Monkeys might want to put some ice on it and just stay in bed today.
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