Posted on 11/30/2022 9:14:53 AM PST by omegatoo
Hi all,
I think that saying that a Democrat might win the speakership is purely a scare tactic.
From what I am reading, the speaker must win a simple majority of total votes cast, so 218 if all vote. If the dissenting Republicans vote for anyone other than McCarthy there is no way McCarthy can reach majority unless democrats vote for him. Representatives can vote for anyone. They are not limited to choosing between the nominees.
As long as Republicans don’t vote for the Democrat nominee, the Democrat can’t reach majority either. As much as I detest the Rinos, I don’t think they would vote for a democrat.
Even though the dissenting Republicans won’t have enough votes to elect anyone else, they can spoil the speaker election indefinitely.
The worst that would happen if the dissenters stand firm is that there will be no speaker for an indefinite period of time.
Would the Democrats cross over and vote for McCarthy? If so McCarthy still wins speakership, but he wins it having to live with being elected by his opposition.
The outcome wouldn’t change, but at least we would have had some Republicans demonstrate that they actually have backbones.
Best case is that the opposition in the Republican party holds or even grows and they stall the process so long that McCarthy has to withdraw.
What happens after that is anybody’s guess.
I would appreciate it if somebody with more knowledge of the process could jump in here to let me know if this is actually the case.
Love, O2
I thought Trump endorsed McCarthy. That should be the end of it, right?
McCarthy will win outright because most if not all Rep holdouts are not doing it on principle. They are keeping open their ability to horse trade for perks, goodies and other nice things...otherwise known as bribes.
Yes, all members of The House vote on Speaker. Given the perpetual division in the Republican ranks, they could pick McCarthy or even Pelosi. Or even Jeffries.
Maybe we will get a fighter? We sure don’t have one in McCarthy.
But there might be enough that would vote for Liz Cheney along with all the Dems.
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Sorry about the double.
Damn DTs, again.
Damn DTs, again.
A good, stiff drink can help that.
The Republicans will have 222 Votes. If the Five who vowed not to vote for him stay that way, he comes up with 217. I predict that at least one or two will be “Bribed” into voting for him. Stay tuned. January 3d is still over a month away and there will be a lot of “Jaw Boning” between now and then.
Pelosi stays.
McCarthy messed up in the post-election. He could have had the backing of the base if he would have demanded a new election in Maricopa County or Ronna be ousted.
The Speaker requires a majority of the House present and voting. Majority. Not enough to be top vote-getter.
Tpper’s lock-box...among other things.
😉
My suspicion is that McCarthy will negotiate (buy) Democrat votes for Speakership. Heaven knows what price he’ll be willing to pay for them.
As much as I detest the Rinos, I don’t think they would vote for a democrat.
= = =
This may be the flaw in your presentation.
Liz Cheney isn’t around anymore, but would vote for a democrat.
How many like her are left?
We saw 12 rinos cross over in the senate for the ‘marriage’ bill.
It would only take how many, 3 or 4? Final numbers aren’t in yet, I think.
And a larger question. Can the House call for a vote for a new speaker at any time? During the term?
My guess is that Democrats will extract the embarrassment of that and then throw a few votes to put him over the top. The alternative is that McCarthy and his leadership team drop out before/after the first vote, let the party put up a new candidate. I say that whatever it takes, they should stop McCarthy and his team from assuming leadership.
There’s about thirty who didn’t want him based on an early ballot. He’s short less than that number based on another article. There’s no strong opposition. We could be better off with someone else. And it’s not the other guy running so we suck it up and thrown in with Kevin after making him squirm by trading for committees or agenda items or things in the rules.
The SOH does not have to be a representative. So just about anyone could be elected as Speaker. All the Constitution says is the House will pick it's own officers.
My secret wish is Trump is elected Speaker. Just the photo of Nancy(who hates his guts) having to hand the gavel over to her nemesis would be a picture for the ages.
McCarthy would have to horse-trade: either agree to put someone on a specific committee in exchange for his vote, or agree to bring a pet bill/amendment to the floor in exchange for their vote, etc.
-PJ
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