Posted on 10/25/2022 5:38:38 AM PDT by cotton1706
Democrats could be at risk of losing the U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire as recent polls show Republican Donald Bolduc making significant gains against incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan.
While Hassan still leads Bolduc in the latest Emerson College Polling/WHDH 7 News survey, that lead has shrunk from 11 points last month to just 3 points as of last week.
A Republican victory in New Hampshire would be a significant upset and the race has not been as closely watched as other key races, such as the ones in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
The Emerson College Polling survey found that Hassan led Bolduc 48 percent to 45 percent. That's a notable change in the same survey conducted from September 14 to 15, which showed Hassan with 51 percent support to Bolduc's 40 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
I am not arguing that the Establishment wants its Uniparty, I am just saying anyone from day one should have considered NH in play as a GOP pickup.. regardless of all the other things.
NH is NOT a deep blue state.. it’s elected far more R’s than D’s to the senate over the last 50 years... Why anyone would think in a midyear election with a very very unpopular D administration that a sitting D first term Senator in NH would not be considered “in play” from the start is beyond me.
This was one of the states I considered a possible pick up from the start... I don’t understand why anyone whos job is to analyze elections and politics would have ever thought this election was ever going to be an easy hold for the D’s.
Exactly... its not some deep blue bastion... and has elected far more R senators that D’s over the last 5 decades.. why a professional political analyst would EVER have considered NH “Safe” for the D in this race out of the gate is just beyond my comprehension. This should have always been considered a potential pick up for the GOP by any competent handicapper.
I’m not here to argue any of that.. The Uniparty is the Uniparty... what I am saying is, to look at the Senate races out there in a mid term election with a VERY VERY unpopular (illegitimate) D administration in the white house.... Even the most basic handicapper should have considered NH as being on the short list for a GOP pickup at the start of this cycle.
Why anyone who claims this is what they do for a living, and didn’t tag this race as a possible flip from the start (before candidates were even chosen) probably is in the wrong business.
This should have always been considered a potential GOP pick up, IMHO.
John Fredricks on Bannon's show said VT (Sanders) and CT (Bumenthal) are in play.
Let that sink in, and if we run the table that would be 57 R Senators.
I have been on a screed, and no one sees it, but I think the Governor's race in MA is not out of the question. Imagine a MAGA Governor Geoff Diehl in MA...
Bannon was right, this will be a 100 yr shift / crushing of the DNC. He said that over a yr ago. They have unmasked themselves with going after our kids, and that isn't even mentioning inflation, crime, energy etc etc etc.
The Normals have had enough....
mAsshole infiltration has ruined it.
Mitch is dismayed.
“I am not arguing that the Establishment wants its Uniparty, I am just saying anyone from day one should have considered NH in play as a GOP pickup.. regardless of all the other things.”
Right, I know. But they see New Hampshire as a solid blue state now, because it’s gone blue in so many presidential elections since Clinton. And they use it to launch Democrat-type Republicans in presidential years. And they just LOVE Charlie Baker and Sununu types so ONLY if a Sununu type was nominated would they think a Senate seat would be in contention (but as we have seen, those types lose - Sununu, Ayotte and Brown). Because a conservative was nominated, they see it as an easy Democrat win.
But that’s not the reality. That’s THEIR reality. But often, with behind-closed-door vote-counting, they make THEIR reality the actual reality.
“VT (Sanders)”
It’s Leahy’s seat that’s up this year. But you’re right. There is a possibility of taking that this year, if all those who vote for the incumbent Republican governor also vote for Malloy.
Thanks Cotton, brain fart on my part, they are = as bad!
I hate to be the grammar police, but affect is a verb and effect a noun. I only bring it up because it was one of my have to look ups every time I use one. I literally learned this mnemonic device last week.
RAVEN: it stands for Remember: affect verb, effect noun.
I’m picking up what your puttin down.
It is just the constant Ads on TV, internet, Social Media, print media are all heavily in favor of the Dems.
The funny thing is the people even in Boston are complaining about it because their political races are not competitive.
So, all the ad buys are for NH politics where they do not have a horse in the race.
I do not not get a newspaper or have cable TV. I listen to mostly Boston radio stations to and from work. All the radio ads are for the Dems. They started the day after the primary.
There are even ads that show up on channels I am watching Streaming on the internet. These are ads for a woman Dem running for a NH State Senate seat. Her opponent is Gary Daniels, the incumbent Republican. The Dem Chandley’s signs are everywhere in the town I drive through on the way to work in Nashua. So, even in state Senate races the Republicans are getting outspent.
I openly admit I am not on the ground in NH, and I would never declare NH a deep red conservative state from what I haver seen, but it’s not remotely a deep blue state from what I can see either.
In any election context matters. This is a midterm... and its a midterm with an absolute failure of an illegitimate administration at the helm. Given those 2 factors, NH should have always been put in the “in play” column until proven otherwise.
Incumbency does count for a lot, even when you are on the losing side of larger trends, but it’s not a miracle cure all. I would not have handicapped NH as high of a likelihood to flip its senate seat as other states, but it should have always been on the short list of possible flips. Not the MOST likely to, but certainly should not have been considered “SAFE” for the democrats to hold.
2 weeks to go...
“...RAVEN: it stands for Remember: affect verb, effect noun.”
Nifty Jet! Thank you. You are a nice grammar cop.
I understand, I’m stuck in PA.. where mostly outside money is trying to buy the Senate Seat for one of two giant turds... while that race is not lopsided... the Governors race here spending is hugely lopsided.. only been seeing ads for the R maybe in the last week or two with any frequency.
I understand R’s are being outspent, but the reality in my mind is that political advertising is just bigger and bigger black holes of cash, with smaller and smaller returns generally speaking.
I am not saying they have zero impact on a race, but like here in PA, when its all said and done the 2 turds and various pacs will have spent in the range of 150-200 Million combined to try to buy the Senate seat for “their” guy.. the vast majority of that money is from out of state.... Does anyone really think either of these buffoons is going to represent PA and her people if they win? Or that that kind of money is being spent to give us a candidate with integrity? Be serious.
Swamp at its finest... 2 folks who shouldn’t be allowed to run for dog catcher and one of them is going to be a Senator when its all said and done.. and completely owned by the 100’s of millions that bought him the seat.
We’re working within their worldview, and battling against it.
In their minds, only Democrats or moderate Republicans have a chance of winning anywhere. That’s why they’re continually shocked.
That’s why nominating conservatives was so important this year. In a wave year, they have more of a chance of winning but would likely win anyway. With conservative wins, their “only moderates can win” paradigm will crumble.
As you said, two weeks to go!
If I see a Poster misusing the words ‘lose’ & ‘loose’ no matter what, I cease reading right there. I cannot take such a person seriously. To a lesser extent I am the same with affect & effect. Somehow, that faux pas is more understandable, but lose & loose, is simply too much for me.
Believe me I know... PA missed its chance to truly have a conservative on the Ballot for the first time in my nearly 4 decades living here.... Establishment attacked the true conservative more vile and viciously than they had any Dem in history when she became a real threat.
Effect can be a verb: To effect a change.
Affect can be a noun (in psychiatry): The patient has a depressed affect.
I did have a few moments of thought before posting, in fact, but just went with it. (It’s kind of nice to know there are other grammar policemen/women on this board. Greetings!)
I fail to see the perception that NH is solid blue.
At the state level, all the branches of government are red. The governor, the senate, the house/assembly, and the executive council.
I’m aware of the exceptions, but most times that RAVEN works. I rarely correct grammar if the point is understandable. But I was excited to find that mnemonic device because I won’t have to look it up again.
One grammar mistake that is growing in popularity, both spoken and written, is have went. That just grates in my ear. Cheers from one grammar cop to another.
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