Posted on 10/17/2022 8:29:11 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Link only Bloomberg article that may explain why the chip embargo basically went into place overnight. It's very possible that Xi Jinping will move on Taiwan in the next two years. And that is presumably why Biden has given 3 warnings to China, and Xi is downplaying any new policy on Taiwan. The big game we've been waiting for in the Western Pacific? It's coming. Anyone invested in equities should prepare to assume the position. What position? BOHICA.
As long as our industry has shop in China, we aren’t going to war with them.
Russia was Ukraine's biggest trading partner when they went to war. Germany was one of the US's biggest trading partners when WWII started. Japan was another.
Norman Angell argued before WWI that trade had made war impossible between the Great Powers. He will likely always be wrong. As long as territorial gain remains a way for political leaders to gain long-lasting personal fame and glory, war will continue to be a part of human existence.
Value of Imports from Ten Chief Suppliers First Eight Months, 1929 and 1930
Country and rank in 1930 1929 1930 Per cent decline in value (Value in thousands of dollars) 1. Canada 335,874 11.2 279,012 12.8 -16.9 2. Japan 270,872 9.0 178,461 8.2 -34.1 3. United Kingdom 223,498 7.4 148,460 6.8 -33.6 4. Germany 171,557 5.7 122,775 5.7 -28.4 5. British Malaya 171,115 5.7 109,354 5.0 -36.1 6. Brazil 142,121 4.7 87,840 4.1 -38.1 7. China 121,141 4.0 80,978 3.7 -33 1 8. Cuba 155,402 5.2 79,728 3.7 -48.7 9. British India 108,869 3.6 78,720 3.6 -27.7 10. France 109,295 3.6 75,744 3.5 30.7 Other countries 1,198,910 39.9 933,766 43.9 -22.1 Totals 3,008,714 100.0 2,174,838 100.0 27.7
Value of Exports to Ten Chief Markets First Eight Months, 1929 and 1930
1929 1930 Per cent change in value (Value in thousands of dollars) 1. Canada 659,071 19.3 480,505 18.2 -27.1 2. United Kingdom. 517,435 15.2 433,311 16.4 -16.2 3. Germany 231,375 6.8 169,967 6.4 -26.5 4. France 155,471 4.6 138,980 5.3 -10.6 5. Japan 153,110 4.5 113,340 4.3 26.0 6. Argentina 145,944 4.8 92,185 3.5 -36.8 7. Soviet Russia 47,373 1.4 86,845 3.3 +83.3 8. Mexico 83,788 2.4 82,744 3.1 -1.2 9. Cuba 88,226 2.6 69,057 2.6 -21.7 10. Italy 94,523 2.8 67,196 2.5 -28.9 Other countries 1,230,197 36.1 907,016 34.4 -26.3 Total 3,406,513 100.0 2,641,146 100.0 -22.5
I think it is reasonable to believe China could act decisively within the next two years. They could wait longer until the BRICS bloc consolidates, but by then America may have a President again.
Xina anticipates a regime change here by January 2025.
Gotta strike while Dementia Xoe is sniffing hair.
I’m not talking trading partners. The last year should have taught us we don’t make enough here to sustain ourselves. That’s how China owns us and we are not going to war with them. Also, if anyone thinks Russia has problems rounding up troops to go to Ukraine, wait till our gov tries to get people to go to Taiwan.
[You really believe anything this retromingent jackass says?]
Squirrel 🐿.
Don’t worry about the economy November 8th.
“As long as our industry has shop in China, we aren’t going to war with them”.
I agree. In many ways the Chinese have us over a barrel, and they know it.
80% or more of our medicine is manufactured in China and India. We are totally reliant on them for most of our critical medicine, including antibiotics. It is inexcusable.
As much as I would like to totally agree, the problem with
a guy like Biden, is you never know what the heck he’s about
to do.
One day he may look weak, and the next he may over compensate
the other direction so he won’t look weak.
We all think Biden is on China’s payroll though, so maybe
Xi has already gotten the green light, if he can actually
trust Joe anymore than we can.
Might as well give the Neocons CREDIT for quickly escalating this conflict too. The only thing that I’m surprised about was that Taiwan played along with them...probably some SERIOUS threats by the Neocons if they didn’t.
Suppose the 2024 election controls cheating enough to allow Trump to be sworn in in Jan 2025. It takes time to rebuild our energy sector and military. It still takes fossil fuel to power our surface fleets. Our nuclear subs might save Taiwan but I am not certain.
This is why the kiddie sniffer lost $84 billion in materiel in Afghanistan and is depleting many remaining items in the Ukraine, in addition to depleting the strategic petroleum reserves, as well as starting a trade war with China when (thanks to the treason of most in DC) the US is no longer self-sufficient in oil — let alone in most other items including antibiotics.
Pretty much nothing that was left behind in Afghanistan or is being used in any numbers in Ukraine is at all relevant in a naval war vs China.
Think about it.
The principal issue in a war in East Asia is about controlling the air and sea. If the US and allies lose that, ultimately Taiwan is lost.
Ground combat on Taiwan is moot.
Taiwanese absolutely dont want to be ruled by the PRC.
Uh-huh.
Ever think we might want to replace that $84 billion worth of stuff?
And that it might, like, have to be paid for?
And that money will come out of the budget for other things?
It will take more than our subs > IMO.
I’m not fully convinced we should come to Taiwan’s rescue.
We do have some sort of agreement with them from years back,
but we haven’t really addressed them as Taiwan in
international circles, so I’m kind of iffy on this.
I do not like the idea of China taking it over though.
Didn’t like China getting its mittens on Hong Kong either.
“As long as territorial gain remains a way for political leaders to gain long-lasting personal fame and glory, war will continue to be a part of human existence.”
Lebow has analysed a lot of wars and classifies the instigation of the wars into 5 primary motives and combos there of.. Material ( territitory, resourcs etc) is one reason. Others being, standing (Prestige), security, revenge and domestic politics. A classic example of a war that was not driven by territorial aquisition is GW2 in 2003.
Kind of recall Biden scoffing at the suggestion that China was a danger.
Nearly all that stuff had been given to the Afghan Army (over 20 years), and the US wasnt getting it back anyway.
And it was almost all equipment specific to counterinsurgency. The US has been giving that stuff away, like the MRAPs from Iraq.
A Taiwan war will go fast. It will be fought with weapons in service and in stock. No “arsenal of democracy” stuff here. And soon, apparently. If anything is not here, now, its irrelevant.
Taiwan is critical. If China has it, it controls the Eurasian shipping lanes to Japan and Korea. Thats going to give China leverage over everyone there. Instant Chinese empire.
The way I see it—China must act before Biden is forced out of office and is replaced by Trump or a MAGA type GOPer. I would think next Spring—It will be quick and dirty. Islands first then “Civic Unrest” in Taiwan the Chinese troops to establish order. Civil Rights guaranteed—Like Hong Kong—for a while.
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