Posted on 06/22/2022 10:29:22 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
He’s not doomed, for the simple reason that no Republican is doomed in a year like this one unless they’re running in a D+15 jurisdiction. Pennsylvania is considerably redder than that. Oz will have a fighting chance all the way to Election Day.
And there’s something else working for him, the John Fetterman health crisis. It may be that complications from his stroke will leave Fetterman unable to campaign in earnest this summer and fall, either forcing Dems to replace him on the ballot with someone less popular or asking Pennsylvania swing voters to gamble that he’ll be able to do the job of a senator if they elect him. As I write this, Fetterman still has yet to return to the trail despite having had his heart scare more than a month ago. Maybe doubts about his fitness will tip the scales to Oz in the end.
But as things stand today, there’s no way to absorb this AARP poll and not come away thinking the GOP is at dire risk of losing this seat in a national environment in which they shouldn’t be losing anywhere that’s remotely competitive. Ask yourself where you’d expect a generic Republican candidate to be polling in Pennsylvania knowing that Biden’s job approval there looks like this:
My eyes glazed over at that split among independents. Pitted against a generic Democrat, I’d expect a generic Republican to be leading 54/46 or thereabouts with an anchor as heavy as Biden around Team Blue’s ankles. Against a good candidate like Fetterman, maybe I’d make it 52/48.
But Oz isn’t a generic Republican. Oz is … this guy:
He’s down double digits in net favorability in every demographic except Republicans and he’s not lighting up the scoreboard with them either. Somehow, despite months of rising inflation and soaring gas prices, Oz’s favorable rating is worse than Biden’s approval rating. Fetterman, meanwhile, pulls a 46/36 overall favorability and is +80 net within his own party in contrast to Oz’s +15 among Republicans.
Put it all together and Fetterman leads, 50/44. Again, that’s not doom — especially when we remember how pollsters lowballed Republican support in 2020 — but even a strong Democratic candidate has no business leading (let alone reaching 50 percent) in a swing-state Senate race in the year of a Republican tsunami. Oz is just a bad, unpopular candidate, likely too centrist for MAGA fans, too Trumpy for Democrats, too sketchy from his years of new-age TV doctoring for undecideds, and too much of a carpetbagger for everyone.
You can’t console yourself with the idea that the AARP data is an outlier either. It isn’t. Last week a Suffolk poll showed Fetterman leading Oz, 46/37, broadly in line with today’s results. There too Oz was fantastically unpopular, rating 28/50 in favorability compared to Fetterman’s 45/27. Maybe Oz’s numbers will improve as lingering hard feelings from Dave McCormick and Kathy Barnette voters soften over time, bringing some Republicans back into the fold following a tough primary.
But I wouldn’t bet heavily on it:
Touting party unity, Mehmet Oz said in two Fox appearances that "all" of his former primary rivals have endorsed him…which prompted third-place Kathy Barnette, who got more than 330,000 votes, to say this:
https://t.co/AdIykBy5Hy pic.twitter.com/RBqO3B09zi— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) June 22, 2022
The worse inflation and fuel prices get, the better Oz’s chances get. He absolutely could win this election despite rocking a 30/63 favorable rating thanks to the national Biden malaise. But if Fetterman recovers physically and convinces voters that he’s fit for service, there’s a nonzero chance that he wins this race comfortably, a near-impossibility approaching a feat of magic in a year like this.
And that’s not the only ominous data in the AARP poll.
I’ve made my feelings clear about Doug Mastriano in earlier posts. He’s a menace to American democracy whose victory in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race would raise the odds considerably of a constitutional crisis in 2024, particularly if Trump is the Republican nominee. He’s so fringy that his Democratic opponent, Josh Shapiro, ran an ad during the Republican primary highlighting Mastriano’s Trumpiness, knowing that would endear him to Republican primary voters. Shapiro wanted to face Mastriano in the general election because he believed he was the easiest Republican candidate to beat — which may be true.
But he forgot that no Republican will be easy to beat in 2022.
Two polls have now confirmed that Mastriano is very much in this race and capable of winning. Suffolk had him down four points to Shapiro, 44/40. Today’s AARP poll has it tighter than that, 49/46. Again, a generic Republican would probably be winning outright: Mastriano’s favorable rating is 37/44 while Shapiro’s is 47/34. But Biden’s catastrophic decline among independents is a heavy weight on Shapiro’s shoulders. Behold:
Mastriano is 18 points ahead of Shapiro among independents. Eighteen farking points. He also polls better on favorability among indies than Shapiro does, breaking even at 38/38 while Shapiro scores 32/41. It may be that Mastriano’s numbers will decline once Shapiro’s team really goes to work on him and begins educating voters about what he believes and what sort of civic threat he represents. But Mastriano has been shrewd about not aiding that education campaign: He’s avoiding national media requests and sticking to social media streaming so far, which deprives journalists of chances to confront him about his insurrectionist crankery and to highlight it in their reports. He may end up running a version of Biden’s basement campaign, believing that in a year when voters nationwide are open to electing any Republican on the ballot, all he has to do is lie low, keep them in the dark, and let political gravity work for him.
It could work. If the election were held today, I might even rate him as the favorite. God help us.
As for Oz, it’s a cinch that the little-known and therefore more generic Republican McCormick would have been more competitive with Fetterman. I’ll leave you with this bit of trivia from Josh Kraushaar. Kathy Barnette may have ended up inadvertently handing this seat to Democrats after all.
One Republican involved in the Senate primary found the same dynamic from their internals — lots of “no Oz” voters that “liked” McCormick but weren’t 100% sold. Barnette won a lot of these voters.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) June 22, 2022
That's fine. Trump and the GOP need to understand it is not about them. It is about the constitution and individual liberty.
If they want to be Democrat Lite, they can do so without my support.
Oz is far better than the democrat, and he can still win if he hits the MAGA issues hard.
Dang! Look at blacks in these polls. They suck, yea I said it.
I understand that sentiment. I don't agree with it, but I understand it. Know this though: John Fetterman will be the most liberal, most thoroughly Marxist Senator any state has ever elected, and he is deceptively clever about both hiding it and selling Marxism to the masses. You sit on your hands and let him walk into office, he will find a way to stick around and spread his ideology. He will become a far bigger problem for the future of the nation than six years of a celebrity (who will probably tire of the job after one term anyway).
The constitution says who can’t be blocked from running for office, it says nothing about what a voter can consider when voting.
If voters won’t vote for someone because of his religion, race or sex, or age or color of eyes, or anything else, that is their constitutional right.
Mccormicks wife is Goldman Sachs and Mcmaster buddy Dina Powell. If you mean safer choice in terms of winning an election...maybe.
safer choice as far as power etc... ...I dont think so.
Unfortunatly Pa is not a state that puts up strong candidates. But as is said Oz is still a much better choice than Fetterman by far. How Oz would be in the Senate, if he wins, is questionable.
His long-time close association with Orca Winfrey should be enough to tell you that. Not sure what possessed Trump to endorse this turd, but it's just one more reason why I ignore "endorsements" regardless of which celebrity, organization, or politician emitted them.
agree...
You can consider anything you like. Politicians don't care whether you "hold your nose" or whatever other euphemism you use to assuage your seared conscience.
A vote for Oz is a vote for Oz (and an endorsement of everything he represents); that is all Oz and his handlers care about. Cast your vote how you see fit, but don't lie to yourself about it.
In my town we are so fortunate to have a great State Rep who is highly active for us and in Washington as well. But generally even local elections could do far better in candidate selection.
I don't think our vote signifies an endorsement of “everything” they represent. Oz is a practicing Sufism Muslim and also practices transcendental mediation. Neither of which I would endorse. His dual citizenship with Turkey as well. So my vote would be to oppose Fetterman. Fettermans clear opposition to most all I hold necessary is far far worse.
“ And that’s not the only ominous data in the AARP poll.
I’ve made my feelings clear about Doug Mastriano in earlier posts. He’s a menace to American democracy whose victory in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race would raise the odds considerably of a constitutional crisis in 2024, particularly if Trump is the Republican nominee.”
Yeah, we know where AARP and this guy stand. Deep in DNC doo doo.
You're just another childish troll on the internet.
Fetterman endorses and supports the Biden/Wolf agenda. If Pennsylvanians are that stupid to elect Fetterman then they deserve what they get.
I’m going to hold my nose and vote for him, trusting that Trump can influence him on the major issues.
Fetterman is a stoner biker, and as liberal, if not mere, than Wolf.
I sure don’t want another Wolf.
Kathy might have won if it weren’t for Hannity’s lies. I voted for her.
On the other hand, A lot of people here complained about TOOMEY voting to impeach Trump, but they don’t care if Fetterman is our senator and would also vote to impeach Trump.
Feterman comes across to me as just a thug.
Mastriano is making this a race.
I wasn’t defending Oz. I was defending Trump. The poster said Trump (not Oz) should fade away.
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