The war in the Ukraine is about Oil

Based upon interactions here on Free Republic and various other sources, this war is a war over resources: Oil, Natural Gas, Water, Aluminum... as well as strategic buffering and traditional tyrant terrorizing.

To: gleeaikin Look at the Azov Natural Gas Preserves region, and then look at Russia’s Occupation Map. He has captured all the land mass of the preserve and all the access land to the underwater portion of that preserve.

Mariopol happens to be smack dab in the middle of it. All the shoreline of the Azov Sea West to just short of Odessa and then out to sea is the massive Azov Natural Gas Preserve.

119 posted on 3/29/2022, 4:13:40 AM by DoughtyOne (I pledge allegiance to the flag of the U S of A, and to the REPUBLIC for which it stands.)

The map on the right side, tells you all Russia wanted... Note the Southern Ukraine land grab.

Note the overlay from the land grab below. All land above this preserve, all land adjacent to the under sea portion of the Azov Natural Gas preserve...

LINK https://64.media.tumblr.com/b0de897e064daa66864fb2d3f06eef80/tumblr_n5k0yfhJmy1rasnq9o1_1280.png

The Russians weren’t even interested in western Ukraine until oil was found there. Their interest is simply in raping that country. Russia gets 60% of its revenues from oil exports. Europe gets 40% of their oil from Russia.

In 2012 massive oil and gas reserves were found in Crimea. Crimea signed a $10 billion exploration contracts with Shell and Chevron to develop the new found oil and gas fields. These oil and gas products would compete in Europe with Russia’s oil and gas, reducing Russia’s oil revenues, which we recall amount to 60% of their total GDP. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, cancelling the contracts with Shell and Chevron.

But Ukraine still had massive reserves in, you guessed it, Donetsk and Luhansk, and other areas East of the Dnieper River. In 2019, Energy Secretary Rick Perry visited Ukraine, and soon after Ukraine awarded exploration contracts to a consortium of U.S. oil companies. Again, these oil reserves would compete in Europe with Russian oil, so Putin is invading Ukraine to shut down this latest attempt to extract Ukrainian oil and sell it in competition with Russian oil.

This explanation makes more sense to me than the “Putin feels threatened by NATO expansion” excuses for the invasion.

If the Ukes allow some small region in the west to be its own republic, but the OIL belongs to Ukraine, do ya think Pootypoot would allow that? Nope.

--------------------------------------------------------------- https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4005408/posts?page=19#19

Hunter Biden pitched himself as expert in Russian oligarch targeted by FBI: Devine 3/30/2022, 8:43:16 AM · 19 of 19 gleeaikin to bitt; Kevmo I have already commented elsewhere at FR regarding Russia’s seizure of Crimea, and actions to undermine Donbas and other eastern areas of Ukraine. Petroleum and gas deposits were discovered in both those areas in 2012, exploration contracts had been signed with major oil companies, and then in 2014 Putin seized Crimea and made the surrounding offshore areas forbidden to Ukraine. The oil contracts were canceled. This explains why total distruction is being rained on the cities in those areas. Putin doesn’t give a shxx about the cities and the people he is killing. The treasure is underground.

Now we see another part of the resource wars. Until recently the aluminum ore, bauxite, was being imported to Ukraine from Guinea, and then processed into Aluminia. This was then shipped to Russia for manufacture of aluminum objects of general commerce. The link below explains a lot about this business, and also mentions Hunter Biden.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-rusal-guinea/rusals-guinea-bauxite-exports-grind-to-a-halt-amid-ukraine-crisis-idUSL5N2VV3JU

It becomes ever clearer that Putin’s complaint with Ukraine has little to do with mistreated Russian language people in the Ukrainian east, and a whole lot to do with access to and control of important resources.

I don’t think Putin is after a “formidable barrier” against NATO. He’s after the oil & gas.

Look at the Azov Natural Gas Preserves region, and then look at Russia’s Occupation Map. He has captured all the land mass of the preserve and all the access land to the underwater portion of that preserve.

Mariopol happens to be smack dab in the middle of it. All the shoreline of the Azov Sea West to just short of Odessa and then out to sea is the massive Azov Natural Gas Preserve.

Oil and gas reserves were discovered in the 3 places that have gotten the most attention from Russian jack boots. Putin needed a couple of years to organize his takeover of Crimea, and I remember seeing the reports of mercenaries from Russia moving into the Donbass to carry on their warfare back in 2014.

Nov. 2012 was right at the time oil/gas reserves in Crimea, Donbass and Luhansk had been discovered and oil companies were signing contracts to do exploration. No wonder Putin took over Crimea in 2014 and is now trying to take over the other two regions. It also explains why in 2014 he started sending in Mercenaries to east Ukraine to help enable them to defect from Ukraine.

gleeaikin searched for a Google page on this oiltopic. There are a lot of interesting articles to read here. I have not read them yet, but it appears there is probably a lot of petroleum to enable Europe to buy much of their needs from Ukraine rather than Russia.

At the very least, Putin has caused enough destruction in Ukraine, that any oil profits would have to go into rebuilding cities, rather than doing the kind of development that could make Ukraine an important modern European country. What a damn shame!!

https://www.google.com/search?q=Findings+of+oil+and+gas+in+Crimea+and+Donbass+region+around+2012&rlz=1CAJCUZ_enUS847&oq=Findings+of+oil+and+gas+in+Crimea+and+Donbass+region+around+2012&aqs=chrome..69i57.31411j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

What is most astonishing is the fact that so little has been mentioned about the whole Ukraine has petroleum reserves issue, and the places where they are constitute the precise main target of Putin’s massive attacks. He does not care about preserving the cities which he would if he was doing it for the poor ethnic Russians who are being treated so meanly by those nasty Ukrainians. Of course he does not care, what he wants is safely stored under ground. The heck with Ukrainian human beings. And this lack of humanity is reflected in so many consistently pro Putin posts. And their support of the Butcher of Moscow an insult to patriotic FReepers and Putin’s helpless Ukrainian victims.

This Feb. 2019 Forbes article clearly defines the great loss to Ukraine caused by Putin’s 2014 seizure of Crimea. Even if a plebecite should prove the people of Crimea prefer a totalitarian corruption ridden Russia to a corruption ridden Ukraine, at the very least the large “exclusion zone” shown in this article’s map should be reopened to Ukriane’s use and control regarding resources. An excellent sanction against Putin’s greed and cruelty.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/02/28/as-russia-closes-in-on-crimeas-energy-resources-what-is-next-for-ukraine/?sh=6aa8dbc529cd

Mum on Ukraine’s Security Wish List, Putin Instead Sends a Warlord to Mariupol 3/30/2022, 8:57:26 AM · 34 of 44 https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4050884/posts?page=34#34 gleeaikin to NorseViking; Kevmo; SoCal Pubbie; Williams; BiglyCommentary; rrrod; Meet the New Boss; All If Putin loves the people of the Ukraine south and east so much why is he flattening their cities. Oh, I guess it is because he is after the petroleum and gas reserves underground so he could care less about anything living or dead above ground. In 2012 reserved were found in the south and east, and exploration contracts signed with major oil companies. Then in 2014 Putin seized Crimea and began to destablize the Donbas area. Now he just wants to destroy all Ukraine life above those deposits. Thousands are being bussed out of the area. Who knows how many really want to go to Russia, and how many are faking it to just get away from being bombed.?

Another possibility might be providing a travel corrider between Crimea and west Russia. Something like the Danzig Corridor, or the Panama Canal Zone. In addition Ukraine must have its rights to drill for oil in the Black Sea restored. The oil is why Puting really wanted Crimea.

Thanks for the plug

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4051027/posts?page=109#109

Retired 4-star US army general Jack Keane says Ukraine can win war
4/1/2022, 4:42:19 AM · 109 of 109
gleeaikin to Arcadian Empire; Anti-Bubba182; Kevmo; BiglyCommentary; McGavin999; Vermont Lt; Apparatchik; ...
It is sad to see so-called Freepers rooting for Putin or passing sly inuendos about Ukraine and its leaders. Glad to see more Freepers taking up the fight against totalitarianism and invasion, Recently I was informed about how the discovery of oil and gas around Crimea and under Donbass in 2012 resulted in exploration contracts with oil majors. Then in 2014 Putin took Crimea and began inserting Russian mercenaries into East Ukraine to foment rebellion and discord. The oil companys left. Freeoer Kevmo has taken some comments I wrote, and some from other freepers and posted the excellent and informative link below about the Oil in Ukraine Issue and the War. It is about a lot more than Nord Stream, and completely explains Putin’s cruel decisions.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4050958/posts

Post Reply | Private Reply | To 85 | View Replies

I liked your response on another thread where this subject came up, so I’m copying it here.

https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4053478/posts?page=80#80

To: Kevmo
TRUE Putin knows about the Major Natural Resources Of Ukraine:
The natural resources of Ukraine can be divided into three main groups; energy resource, metal ores, and non-metal ores.

Although it accounts for only 0.4% and 0.8% of the Earth’s land surface and world’s population respectively, the country has approximately 5% of the WORLD’S mineral resources. Over 20,000 deposits of 194 known minerals can be found in Ukraine. Of these deposits discovered, 7,800 deposits of over 90 hold important industrial minerals.

Ukraine has one of the leading reserves and extraction of MANGANESE, iron, and non-metallic raw material.
The country also has the LARGEST URANIUM deposit in Europe and accounts for 1.8% of the world’s uranium deposit. The proven reserves contain estimated 45,600 tons of uranium. Ukraine has 300 deposits of graphite, containing more than 1 billion tons or 20% of the world’s graphite. Only China has more graphite reserves (26% of the total world’s graphite reserve).

Putin wants the mines!
The mineral wealth of the area remains the same strategic prize that Adolf Hitler recognized during WWII.
1-Particularly Donbas, leads Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores, ranking seventh in the world overall. It ranks second in titanium ore reserves in Europe, second worldwide in explored reserves of manganese ores, and second in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves.
[Natural uranium and low-enriched uranium can be used as fuel for power generation nuclear reactors, research reactors, military plutonium production, and naval propulsion reactors. Highly enriched uranium can power naval propulsion, military plutonium and tritium production reactors, and act as feedstock for nuclear weapons production.]

2-Titanium alloys are some of the most common metals used in military applications for everything from aircraft parts to missile housings, armor plating, naval ship and spacecraft construction. Many more civil applications contribute to demand as well.

3-Manganese ores are vital to steel production, corrosion-resistant aluminum and copper alloys, battery cathodes, and nutritional supplements. Mercury ores are valuable in applications including munition fuzes, missile and space guidance system gyroscopes, infrared detection and lighting.

PUTIN ASSUMING FULL CONTROL OF THESE ASSETS is an obvious shortcut to exploit Ukraine infrastructure in the Donets Coal Basin won’t be the work of a moment for Russia. But assuming full control of these assets is an obvious start.

PLUS, He wants to keep Crimea.

Other major resources include mercury (2% of the world, 30,000 tons, ranking it 5th after Spain, China, Algeria, and Kyrgyzstan), potash salt, gold, building material, ornamental stones, and hydropower resources.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-are-the-major-natural-resources-of-ukraine.html

OFFSHORE
“Just prior to the collapse of the Yanukovych government [PUTIN’S PUPPET], Ukraine was very close to signing a $735 million production-sharing agreement with ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell.

The deal would have seen two wells drilled off the southwest coast of Crimea in the Skifska area. The operators were optimistic that even though no drilling had taken place in this block, a recent natural gas discovery in the Romanian part of the Black Sea could be a harbinger of economic reserves in the Skifska licence.

Going back further, in 2012, the two companies along with Romania’s OMV Petrom and Ukraine’s state-owned Nadra Ukrainy were picked to spend between $10 and $12 billion to develop the Skifska field which is projected to have reserves of between 7 and 8.8 Tcf and would have produced about 175 Bcf per year over a 50 year production sharing deal, REDUCING UKRAINE’S VERY HEAVY DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTED GAS FROM THECLUTCHES RUSSIA.

Not surprisingly, the deal was contested by Russia’s Lukoil.
SO, ExxonMobil announced in early March 2014 that further activity on its Skifska license were on hold until the illegitimate annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine was resolved.”

80 posted on 4/8/2022, 10:02:00 PM by UMCRevMom@aol.com

Zelensky Says He’s ‘No Longer Interested’ In NATO’s Diplomacy
4/13/2022, 12:57:48 PM · 108 of 112
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4054356/posts?page=108#108

Hamiltonian to Kevmo
The Kremlin didn’t need their attention drawn to Ukraine’s hydrocarbon resources this year, Moscow controlled the oil and gas exploration there until 1992, and more recent work is public domain, for example:
By the USGS

Keeping the potential production off the market might be a better explanation contributing to what we’ve seen.

From a couple of years ago

There are nine so-called “blocks” of natural gas available for licensing in Ukraine’s Black Sea, the potential of which ranges from 92 billion cubic meters (bcm) to over 500 bcm, according to an April 2018 survey conducted by Deloitte. While this is a paltry amount compared to 635 bcm Russia produces annually, grabbing new supply and denying gas to Ukraine is an enticing ‘two birds’ opportunity for Moscow.

Whatever the Russians grabbed in 2014 has disputed oil and gas rights until Ukraine relinquishes their claims, a hindrance to investment. But just maintaining the status quo can inhibit development by Ukraine, preventing Kiev from shipping that gas through the old USSR pipelines for hard currency instead of Russian gas.

Post Reply | Private Reply | To 107 | View Replies

grabbing new supply and denying gas to Ukraine is an enticing ‘two birds’ opportunity for Moscow.
***That kind of sums it up.

Good article from 2014

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4058338/posts?page=27#27

https://euobserver.com/opinion/123496

Why does Putin want Crimea anyway?

Perhaps a $70 billion or a $100 billion price tag is quite cheap (Photo: wipr.com.ua)
By MARTIN NUNN AND MARTIN FOLEY

KIEV, 17. MAR 2014, 09:30
Why is a world leader prepared to risk international opprobrium and, possibly, crippling economic sanctions for an obscure piece of land?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already burnt the $54 billion he spent on Russia’s image in the Sochi Winter Olympics.

His aggression has caused the Russian stock market and the ruble to nosedive, forcing his central bank to spend another $12 billion to prop up the currency.

The total cost for his Crimean adventure could end up being more than $70 billion - way more if the West imposes tough sanctions.

If Putin is to be believed, his campaign in Crimea, and potentially other parts of Ukraine, is to protect ethnic Russians from far-right elements in the new government in Kiev.

It sounds laudable, until you look at how he treats Russian people at home.

Russia has serious social problems - drug and alcohol abuse, HIV rates - but the state does almost nothing to help. Ethnic minorities are treated with disdain. Gay Russians are being forced underground. People close to Putin enjoy vast wealth, but 20 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.

Clearly, ordinary Russians are not his top priority.

Meanwhile, Russia’s far-right party, the LDPR, has more seats in the Russian parliament than there are far-right politicians in Ukraine’s assembly.

So what is Putin’s real interest in Crimea - a sort of island, part desert, part mountains, half the size of Belgium, known to some Europeans for its WWII history and sweet wines?

What is his potential interest in agricultural south Ukraine? Or east Ukraine, home to former Soviet mining, coal, and steel industries, which need massive investment?

Putin has also spoken of Crimea’s historic links to Russia and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

But propaganda aside, perhaps the answer is more simple: oil and gas.

By annexing Ukrainian land on the Black Sea coast, Putin also annexes the rights to any hydrocarbons found in its maritime zones.

There are signs the Black Sea contains a lot of wealth.

Energy firms such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Repsol, and Petrochina have begun to show real interest in working with Kiev to explore the area. Energy companies have already found interesting deposits in Russia’s Black Sea zone, near Novorossiysk, and in Romanian zones. Trans Euro Energy has even found commercially viable gas reserves under the Crimean mainland.

At the same time, reserves of cheaply-accessible gas in Siberia are running low.

But even if Putin never extracts a drop of gas from his new territories, the land grab will ensure that Gazprom, his energy champion, will be in charge of how, when, and by whom this might be done.

It will mean that no matter who rules Ukraine, it can never challenge Putin’s monopoly on energy exports from the region.

Oil and gas also shed light on Putin’s interest in the Crimean port of Sevastopol.

It is a good spot from which the Black Sea Fleet can set sail for the Mediterranean. But it is also a deep water port capable of servicing the kind of massive undersea drilling operation that is needed to explore Ukraine’s offshore fields.

On top of this, Crimea hosts three huge solar power plants.

The shopping list in east and south Ukraine is even longer. These regions are said to contain 45 trillion cubic metres of gas out of Ukraine’s estimated reserves of 49 trillion.

They also contain: export terminals in port of Odessa; military ship building yards in Nikolayev; an oil refinery; chemical plants; grain export silos; hydro-electric plants; two of the largest nuclear power stations in Europe; lots of magnesium, coal, and iron ore.

We can add that Putin would save $20 billion by building his South Stream gas pipeline overland through Crimea instead of under the Black Sea to Bulgaria.

According to some Kremlin insiders, the Crimea operation has been six years in the planning.

It is hard to put a dollar amount on the existing and potential assets in these regions, let alone on their strategic and ideological value.

But perhaps a $70 billion or a $100 billion price tag is quite cheap, especially since America and Europe have such short memories.

When the dust settles, even if people on both sides get killed and some of Putin’s friends end up on EU and US blacklists, he will have achieved his aims.

Then he can spend a few billion dollars more on a new charm offensive to reset relations with the West.

The writers are British journalists who have set up a PR firm, Whites Communication, in Kiev

DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in this opinion piece are the author’s, not those of EUobserver.

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