Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
“Baroness Thatcher, speaking shortly after the Kursk submarine disaster in Russia in August 2000: “I looked at the pictures of Mr. Putin trying to look for a trace of humanity. I should ... have known better”....’
My Ukranian wife always cites the Kursk incident when the lack of empathy Putin demonstrates for his own people comes up. Both his “It sank” brush off of reporter questions when asked what happened and his ill treatment of the relatives of the sailors who wanted information show who Putin is. Konstantin Samoilov, the Russian blogger out of Uzbekistan constantly cites Putin lack of humanity regarding Russian and Ukrainian casualties.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2, 2024
Russian authorities arrested the former deputy rear commander of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) Colonel Dmitry Peshkov on August 2. Russian state newswire TASS reported on August 2 that Russian law enforcement arrested and charged Peshkov for the embezzlement of food rations for Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, to which he pleaded not guilty.[11] Peshkov’s arrest is likely part of a concerted Kremlin effort to remove high-ranking Russian officials from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), potentially to indirectly punish commanders for the failures of their troops or to maintain a cadre of loyal and compliant officers within the highest ranks of the Russian military.[12] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division have reportedly been conducting offensive operations in the Terny-Nevske area of Luhansk Oblast with limited success and have recently lost some territory to limited Ukrainian counterattacks in this area.[13]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-2-2024
Belousov called Gerasimov about the latest shelling
Defense Minister Andrei Belousov is unhappy with how our Armed Forces are coping with enemy attacks deep in Russia. On Saturday morning (after another massive attack ), he urgently called the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The participants in the conversation discussed mechanisms that can increase the effectiveness of our air defense and generally protect critical facilities from drone raids and missile attacks.
Belousov emphasized that he is concerned not only about attacks on military facilities, but also on oil refineries , which Ukraine has begun to bomb over the past few months. Gerasimov noted in the conversation that the number of air defense launchers is limited, which does not allow closing all the necessary facilities.
A source close to Belousov hinted that he is unhappy with Gerasimov’s response and recently discussed the possibility of replacing him at the post . It is difficult to assess the seriousness of such conversations yet, because any such reshuffles must be agreed upon and approved by the president.
Gerasimov has a grudge against Belousov, because the latter, being a civilian, used the FSB to carry out purges in the ranks of the generals. This has heated up the situation in the military leadership. Everyone understands that they can come for them, our sources say.
It is worth noting that in July, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to attack our facilities in the rear more often. Mainly with the help of drones, but not only. Despite the assurances of the authorities in the regions, not all air objects are shot down.
The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making. CNN reported on August 2 that US officials and other sources familiar with the matter stated that Russia was preparing to deliver unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in late July 2024 but backed down from the plan following US and Saudi diplomatic outreach.[13] US officials reportedly stated that they are unsure if Saudi protests were the determining factor for ending the planned transfer, however.[14] CNN's sources stated that at least three Russian military officials traveled to Yemen in late July 2024 to advise the Houthis and possibly assist the Houthis with live fire exercises, which the Houthis later cancelled.[15] US officials reportedly stated that Russia viewed arming and advising the Houthis as a retaliatory measure for lifting some US restrictions on Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons for strikes within Russia.[16] Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on June 6 that Russia would provide long-range strike capabilities to unspecified actors for strikes against the West as a “symmetrical response” to the lifting of some of these restrictions.[17] Russia's reported plans to support the Houthis in order to indirectly confront the West and threaten further escalation cohere with several Russia information and hybrid operations that aim to encourage the West to self-deter from supporting Ukraine over fears of confrontation with Russia.[18]
Putin's willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia's increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.[19] Russia's deepening partnership with Iran will likely encourage Russia to consider supporting other Iranian proxies and leveraging these groups in other indirect attempts to threaten the West with escalation. Increased Russian willingness to use Iran and its proxies to indirectly confront the West will disrupt Russian attempts to portray Russian foreign policy in the Middle East as balanced and may further complicate Russian relations with countries concerned about Russian-Iranian cooperation.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-3-2024
16 sailors died in Sevastopol. Will Belousov hear us after this?
We decided not to comment on the enemy's rumor that our submarine Rostov-on-Don was sunk in Sevastopol. But to avoid insinuations, we must report sad information. As a result of the enemy's recent missile strike, 16 sailors died in Sevastopol . Two of them were officers. We will not disclose where exactly the missiles hit.
We did not report this news for a number of reasons. Firstly, the truth about this emergency, we repeat, will help avoid further speculation.
Secondly, we hope that Andrei Belousov will hear our numerous requests this time. And he will strengthen the air defense of Crimea and Sevastopol. The situation, as we can see, is critical. We advise the enemy not to rejoice. Our military will definitely take revenge on you.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4464
Ukraine’s military said on Aug. 3 that a Ukrainian missile strike the day before sunk a Russian Black Sea Fleet submarine and damaged a S-400 air defense system in Russian-occupied Crimea. The Kilo-class submarine Rostov-on-Don is the submarine that it says sunk in the port of Sevastopol. “As a result of the hit, the boat sank on the spot,” the General Staff said in the statement.
The military said that the submarine, capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles, had sustained “significant damage” in an earlier September Ukrainian missile attack but it had been repaired. The estimated value of the submarine is $300 million, according to the military.
On 13 September 2023, B-237 Rostov-on-Don was severely damaged by a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike while it was drydocked in Sevastopol. ] According to satellite images taken in June 2024, the submarine was moved to a lesser used dry dock within the port. Camouflage nets were thrown up to disguise its presence and to make observation more challenging. According to reports, the submarine is under repair.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine
F-16 flying over Odesa, Ukraine
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1820092883392684396
short video
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 4, 2024
Russian milbloggers responded to the arrival of F-16s by trying to downplay their potential battlefield effects—directly undermining Russian information operations intended to frame the delivery of F-16s and other Western weapons systems as an uncrossable “red line.” Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Western and Ukrainian media are “overhyping” the arrival of F-16s in order to distract from battlefield failures, and many milbloggers turned to immediately discussing how Russian forces will begin targeting and destroying the aircraft.[10] Russian information space commentators and officials have frequently claimed that the delivery of Western weaponry to Ukraine constitutes a red line, that if crossed, will force Russia into an escalatory response.[11] Russia has repeatedly proven, however, that the invocation of supposed “red lines” is a reflexive control technique intended to force the West into self-deterring against providing Ukraine with additional military aid.[12] Western and Ukrainian policies have crossed Russia’s self-defined “red lines” multiple times since the beginning of the war without drawing a significant Russian reaction, which Russian milblogger comments suggest will prove to be the case with Russia’s response to F-16s.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-4-2024
Troops at the front have had their daily ammunition rations cut
Sources in the SVO zone report that since August 1, troops have received orders to reduce the use of artillery shells in several areas of the front. According to various sources, we are talking about cutting from 15 to 25% of the daily ration.
The interlocutors associate such steps with a possible deficit that may arise in the future. At the same time, the generals are convinced that there are currently enough resources to carry out combat missions. The interlocutors note that only in some areas of the front (in particular, near Toretsk and Pokrovsk ) have such restrictions been introduced. At least for now.
One of our interlocutors suggested that the latest attempts to find shells abroad have not yielded results. And relations with the DPRK could have cracked due to the story of Kim Jong-un’s broken cars, which were personally given to him by Vladimir Putin. Another ally of Russia, Iran, could now go to war with Israel, which also does not contribute to replenishing our reserves of drones and missiles.
Shoigu in Iran received several angry calls from generals
On Monday, August 5, the Investigative Committee officially announced the arrest of the director of the Russian Armed Forces Patriot Park Vyacheslav Akhmedov and the deputy head of the Main Directorate for Innovative Development of the Ministry of Defense, Major General Vladimir Shesterov.
They are considered close to former Defense Minister Shoigu. Incidentally, he is currently in Iran, where the situation with Israel has escalated. According to our information, several generals called Shoigu and expressed their dissatisfaction with what was happening.
The generals consider these arrests to be a continuation of Belousov’s purges . At the same time, high-ranking military personnel see risks that the arrests may spread to them as well. The situation is aggravated by Belousov’s attempts to change the leadership of the General Staff. We wrote about the idea of replacing Valery Gerasimov with Mikhail Teplinsky earlier.
Shoigu, by the way, tried to calm the generals down, but was not convincing, sources say.
Purges in the Ministry of Defense as of 08/05/2024:✍️
1. Minister of Defense General of the Army Sergei Shoigu - removed from office;
2. First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov - removed from office;
3. Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov (construction) - arrested ;
4. Deputy Minister of Defense Colonel General Yuri Sadovenko (Department of Defense apparatus) - removed from office;
5. Deputy Minister of Defense Tatyana Shevtsova (financial support) - removed from office;
6. Deputy Minister of Defense General of the Army (retired) Nikolai Pankov (State Secretary) - removed from office;
7. Deputy Minister of Defense General of the Army Pavel Popov (innovative research) - removed from office;
8. Former Deputy Minister of Defense General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov (logistics) - arrested;
9. Chief of the Main Personnel Directorate Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov - arrested ;
10. Chief of the Main Communications Directorate Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin - arrested ;
11. Head of the Department for Providing State Defense Orders Vladimir Verteletsky - arrested ;
12. Press Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Rossiyana Markovskaya - removed from her post;
13. Assistant to the Minister of Defense, Lieutenant General Alexander Burachenok - removed from her post;
14. General Director of the Military Construction Company Andrei Belkov - arrested;
15. Director of the Department of Property Relations Mikhail Sapunov - removed from her post;
16. General Director of Voentorg Vladimir Pavlov - arrested;
17. Director of the Patriot Park Vyacheslav Akhmedov - arrested;
18. Deputy Head of the Main Directorate for Innovative Development, Major General Vladimir Shesterov - arrested .
You can't be deceived forever. Constant discrepancies between the expected (based on your own stereotypes ) and the actual (which doesn't fit into the stereotypes even under pressure) lead a person to a crisis similar to neurosis: a state of unbearable anxiety, continuous frustration, constant emotional tension, all of which is expressed in the accumulation of anger and aggression, which are difficult to contain.
Since most people in our society are in a state of such a crisis, “social” ways of dealing with it are extremely difficult - people literally have no one to share their emotions with.
Eventually, something like catharsis occurs: the system of ideas about the world and stereotypes that determine perception is suddenly rebuilt - in such a way that all traumatic inconsistencies disappear. Anger and aggression spill out onto one's own previous ideas about the world and their bearers. “Insight” occurs.
Conditional “patriots” suddenly realize that:
➖Russia as a great power has long been destroyed;
➖Russia has not been sovereign for a long time, it is more like a colony: the ability to decide or produce anything independently has been eliminated;
➖freedom and independence can only be remembered;
➖a great nation does not exist as a single whole - it is divided by countless walls of misunderstanding: property, national, religious, regional and - most importantly - it is perceived by those in power as a serf, without rights;
➖unity and cohesion of the people is impossible because there is no basis for them;
➖the split in the elites paralyzes any possibilities for qualitative change in the system;
➖Russia, in the person of the current government, cannot win in the NWO and does not want to win - those in power only want to agree with the hegemon on a colonial “treaty”, which - against the backdrop of demonstrated weakness - will certainly be worse than the previous one;
➖Russia's victory in the SVO is impossible due to the weakness of the management, which cannot be changed, and defeat is impossible, since it will obviously lead to catastrophic consequences.
The so-called “individualists” suddenly realize that:
➖they are not “masters of the world” in which they only need to settle in well, but slaves of some hostile system in which almost all comfortable places are occupied;
➖democracy, legality and human rights are just words, the phenomena themselves do not occur in nature;
➖a meritocratic society is a utopia or fantasy that does not exist anywhere in the world, including Russia;
➖personal abilities, hard work and creativity will not be useful for personal advancement if there is no “connection” or sufficient skill in demonstrating slavish obedience;
➖a golden ticket to the best places in life - kinship with the powers that be or readiness to do anything for the sake of the owner, regardless of personal ethical and aesthetic convictions;
➖”tightening the screws” is a one-way process that stems from the weakness of power and will never reverse itself;
➖Russia's victory or defeat in the SVO will not change the situation in any way, since the growth of tyrannical and inhumane tendencies is happening everywhere and “individualists” are not needed anywhere.
As the awareness of the bankruptcy of their system of perception of the SVO grows, the majority of the Russian population rapidly falls into depression and apathy, tries to fence themselves off from traumatic information and switches to primitive survival practices. It does not matter what these practices are - leaving their own job, “internal emigration”, drunkenness, switching to everyday and family problems or partying “like it's the last time” - the main thing is not to see, not to hear and not to think about the real state of affairs and those inconsistencies between the imaginary and the real that suddenly appeared and are crawling out of all the cracks.
But under this “lid” of protective practices, anger and aggression accumulate - both against themselves and their mistakes, and against those who are “guilty” of these mistakes. And one day this “cauldron” will explode.
But there is also a minority of the population that, as a result of insight and catharsis, understands that “something needs to be done.” What exactly is not very clear, but they will think hard. And maybe by the time the “boiler explodes,” they will come up with something. Or maybe not.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2024
Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD’s Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.[1] Russian law enforcement told Kremlin newswire TASS that they suspect Akhmedov and Shesterov of embezzling over 40 million rubles (roughly $471,000) during public procurement for the park and warned that there may be additional defendants in the case.[2] Patriot Park was reportedly the personal project of former Russian Defense Minister and current Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, and recently detained former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov reportedly oversaw construction of the park.[3] A Russian milblogger who is particularly critical of the Russian military command praised Akhmedov’s and Shesterov’s arrests and claimed that Akhmedov and Shesterov were part of the “old team” that controlled the Russian MoD under Shoigu’s leadership, suggesting that their arrests are “indicative” of Shoigu’s diminishing influence.[4]
A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD suggested that recently dismissed former Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov, who is reportedly involved with Russia’s National Defense Control Center, could be the next high-ranking MoD official to be arrested.[5] Russian officials have arrested several senior Russian defense officials since April 2024 on similar corruption charges.[6] Russian milbloggers previously theorized that the arrests of Ivanov and other high-ranking defense officials affiliated with Shoigu could be indicative of Shoigu’s declining influence within the Kremlin, as well as the Kremlin’s desire to “clean house” of Shoigu’s old guard affiliates under the Russian MoD’s new leadership.[7]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5-2024
It is easy to find fabricated scapegoats for the disastrous war in Ukraine because everyone is corrupt and engaged in bribery. It will take some time to find the real reason - the Russian political system and Putin.
It appears that in addition to 18 people being removed from their military posts, half were also arrested. Perhaps this will not reach the huge level of removal of Soviet officers just before WW2 by Stalin, but it will be interesting to see how many of these people are still alive in 6 months, and how many more have been displaced. Stalin severely damaged his Army’s military capability with his murderous purges. How effective will Putin be this year as he slices and dices?
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