Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Russian authorities recently arrested the former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud charges. Popov was largely responsible for Russian defenses against the Ukrainian Summer 2023 counteroffensive in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[16] The 235th Garrison Military Court reported that authorities arrested Popov on May 17 for large-scale fraud and will hold Popov in detention for two months.[17] Popov’s lawyer stated that authorities investigated the case for eight months before arresting Popov.[18] A prominent Russian milblogger, who alleged that they knew about Popov’s arrest before it was officially announced, claimed that authorities charged Popov with fraud worth 100 million rubles (about $1.1 million) after Popov was involved in the sale of 2,000 tons of metal products intended for the construction of fortifications in the 58th CAA’s area of responsibility in the Zaporizhia direction.[19] The milblogger claimed that an unspecified entrepreneur from Krasnodar Krai and an unspecified high-ranking Southern Military District commander are also defendants in the case. A Russian insider source claimed that the Russian military command summoned Popov to Moscow from Syria at an unspecified date and threateningly urged him to resign but Popov refused.[20]
A Kremlin-awarded milblogger claimed that when they tried to clarify information last year about Popov’s removal, unspecified sources did not mention any corruption charges but only discussed Popov’s “military mistakes.”[21] Select Russian milbloggers responded to the news of Popov’s arrest by praising Popov as a competent and respected military commander and expressing hope that authorities would forgive him and allow him to return to military service.[22] Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov fired Popov in July 2023 after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid the Ukrainian Summer 2023 counteroffensive.[23] Popov claimed in leaked audio that former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dismissed him for expressing persistent grievances about problems in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[24]
The Kremlin is likely using the pattern of recent arrests of high-ranking officials on corruption charges in the Russian MoD to conceal the real reasons for Popov’s punishment almost 10 months after his conflict with the Russian military command and subsequent dismissal from his command position. Russian authorities likely did not want to publicly punish Popov in July 2023 out of fear of a rush of public support for the competent commander. The Kremlin also likely did not want to draw attention to issues in the Russian military command in the aftermath of the June 2023 Wagner Group's rebellion.[25] Popov’s arrest comes after multiple recent high-profile arrests of MoD officials reportedly close to Shoigu on corruption charges.[26] The Kremlin likely hopes that arresting Popov in the middle of this alleged wide-scale anti-corruption campaign will minimize attention to Popov’s previous insubordination. Popov’s arrest, however, sends a clear signal to Russian military commanders that insubordinate senior officers will face serious punishments eventually and that Russian President Vladimir Putin values loyalty over competence.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-21-2024
The military asks to release General Popov and send him to the front.
This appeal was made by General Mikhail Teplinsky and more than ten other high-ranking military personnel. The request “to facilitate the release of Major General Ivan Popov , to stop the persecution of the military and allow them to smash the enemy, and not sit behind bars” was transferred to the Ministry of Defense.
“General Popov has proven his effectiveness, including in repelling the so-called counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army. We ask you to allow him to atone for his guilt with blood at this difficult and responsible moment. If this guilt exists, of course. After all, nothing has been proven yet, and we suspect that Ivan Ivanovich could have suffered for his statements . It is not right to keep one of the heroes of our time behind bars,” the appeal says, in part.
According to General Teplinsky, Popov could seriously strengthen our army in the Zaporozhye direction of the front or help liberate Krynki from the enemy. His experience in planning serious operations in the area of the Northern Military District would also be useful.
By the way, Teplinsky has not yet received a response from Andrei Belousov to his appeal. “The situation at the front is changeable, so Mikhail Yuryevich is really looking forward to the minister's response. We need to act quickly,” a source close to Teplinsky told us.
The arrests of generals continue: who is next? We learned three names.
Detentions and arrests of high-ranking generals, which intensified after Andrei Belousov became Minister of Defense, continue. And the arrested Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Vadim Shamarin, is far from the last high-ranking military man in this row.
According to our sources in the Ministry of Defense and the Kremlin, the activities of many generals (and not only in the ministry itself and in the General Staff) are now under close scrutiny, and non-public investigative actions are being conducted.
We don't want to please the enemy (in Kyiv they are happy after every high-profile arrest in our country), but we must note that we know the names of those military leaders who may become next. There are quite a lot of them. But the most serious questions have accumulated for the former commander-in-chief of the Navy, Admiral Nikolai Evmenov, generals Alexander Lapin and Andrei Kuzmenko. According to one of the interlocutors, they are guilty of “especially grave sins.”
There are also many questions for the generals and the command of the Special Forces. It turned out that the elite fighters were guarding not only Shoigu’s deputy Timur Ivanov (our sources, unfortunately, confirmed this data), but also many other generals. As well as their housing and especially valuable property.
By the way, the information about the MTR reached Vladimir Putin; Alexey Dyumin personally reported it to him. Alexey Gennadievich was extremely outraged by the fact that elite fighters were being used for such purposes and asked the president for a tough reaction to this blatant fact.
What's sad is that, against the backdrop of anti-corruption arrests of generals, the settling of scores with unwanted military leaders will most likely continue. Many sources in the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff fear that the case of General Ivan Popov is only the first sign in this unpleasant process.
Sorry MTR => Special Operations Forces of the Russian Federation
The complaints of Russian soldiers describing the composition of their explosives reminds me of an incident from almost 60 years ago. A housemate of mine had returned from a trip to Russia. She was complaining about the lousy toothpaste she bought there. She showed it to me. The paste came out in hard and soft lumps and wet patches with coloring. Unpleasant looking stuff which was hard to apply to a toothbrush. It sounds like creating explosive contents has not gotten much better than that toothpase in the past 50 years. Of course, poorly distributed concentrations of gun powder in shells would tend to create unreliability in explosive power and direction of blasts. Thanks for keeping us up to date on things others are no longer able or willing to report.
65 years or so ago a high school classmate visited Russia and wrote letters home.....on their toilet paper.
Purges in the army continue. Belousov now has critics who are worried that we will lose to the [war in Ukraine].
The purges among the generals, which we have written about more than once, continue. Significant in this regard was the rather tough personnel decision regarding General Sukhrab Akhmedov. “In addition to the fight against corruption, we began to fight against military leaders who did not and do not take care of their personnel and equipment. Akhmedov is only the beginning of this process,” a source in the Ministry of Defense close to Andrei Belousov told us.
This position worried a number of our interlocutors in the ministry and the General Staff. “ Firstly, many of us respect Akhmedov, no matter what. Yes, there are different opinions about him, his personality is ambiguous, he has made mistakes. But he played an important role in the Northern Military District. It seems that Mr. Belousov does not quite understand who our army is based on, and this will lead to problems at the front. Secondly, what does it mean to “not protect personnel”? Will we now punish generals and commanders in general for all losses? So they will stop sending people into battle, and this will all end,” worries one of the interlocutors who contacted us and asked to publish this position.
Another, admitting that many military personnel have a bad attitude towards Akhmedov, still condemned such actions against the general.
“Using losses as a cover, you can blame anyone. This will begin the hunt for dissenters. The process may get out of control. If this happens, we will lose to the Northern Military District,” warned a general close to Valery Gerasimov.
We asked people from Belousov’s circle to comment on these opinions, but have not yet received a response.
OK, you want to rumble? ;-) Thirty years ago friends came back from traveling in Russia and staying in various hotels. They gave me and my husband big hugs. Less than 2 weeks later both my husband, I, and our two sons all had a case of scabies. We called them and they apologized profusely, as they also were afflicted. My husband and I got rid of our cases rather quickly, and I also did a lot of very hot laundering. Nevertheless, our boys continued to find an occasional jacket or shirt behind a chair or sofa, or under the bed, or in a toybox, so it took half a year before their cases were cleared. Boy, talk about from Russia with LOVE!
United Kingdom (UK) Defense Minister Grant Shapps stated on May 22 that US and UK intelligence have evidence that the People's Republic of China (PRC) “is now or will be” providing lethal military assistance to Russia, a statement that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan questioned.[18] Shapps stated that this evidence is a “significant development” as the PRC has previously presented itself as a “moderating influence” but did not provide further information about the supposed intelligence. Sullivan stated during a press conference that he has previously warned that the PRC may supply Russia with lethal military assistance but that the US has “not seen that to date.”[19] Sullivan stated that he will speak with his British counterparts to ensure that the US and UK have a “common operating picture” and to clarify Shapps’ comment.
Western officials warned that Russian intelligence services intend to increase sabotage activities and other hybrid operations against NATO member countries. Norway's Police Security Service (PST) and the Norwegian Intelligence Service (NIS) warned on May 22 that there is an increased threat of Russian sabotage against Norwegian arms supplies and other Norwegian organizations involved in the delivery of military materiel to Ukraine.[20] PST Counterintelligence Head Inger Haugland stated that the PST has warned Norwegian arms suppliers to be on high alert and previously warned that Russian actors were planning acts of sabotage in western Norway, where Norwegian naval bases and oil and gas infrastructure are located.[21] Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on May 20 that Polish authorities have recently arrested and charged nine suspects for engaging in acts of sabotage in Poland on behalf of Russian security services.[22] Haugland stated that Russian security services have used non-Russian nationals to conduct sabotage in Poland, Germany, and the United Kingdom in order to have deniability.[23]
Tusk also warned on May 21 that Russian actors plan to illegally smuggle thousands of migrants from Africa to Europe and that more than 90 percent of those recently apprehended illegally entering Poland have had Russian visas in their passports.[24] Russian officials recently attempted to create an artificial migrant crisis on the Finnish border in late 2023 in an effort to destabilize NATO and the European Union (EU).[25] Russian security services are likely intensifying sabotage operations in European countries to disrupt the arrival of resumed US security assistance to Ukraine and will likely continue hybrid operations aimed at fomenting discord in Europe ahead of European Parliament elections scheduled for early June 2024.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2024
Re Russian operations in NATO countries see
“Summer will be hot.” https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6329#6329
Sarcoptes scabei
https://dailyparasite.blogspot.com/2010/03/march-25-sarcoptes-scabei.html
Can't top that one!
The West will most likely give the Kiev regime permission to use its weapons on Russian territories that it does not consider Ukraine (let us recall that now NATO weapons, in particular American ones, are shelling Crimea and new regions of our country). Such prospects seriously worry many in Moscow. “Masha Zakharova, you remember, shouted that we were ready to shoot at British military targets, including outside Ukraine.
In reality, everything is not so smooth. Many military personnel, including Gerasimov, are categorically against hitting any NATO military targets. Let me clarify and I won't hide it: we are preparing for such attacks. But the military says that Moscow is not yet ready for the large-scale shelling with which they can respond to us. And they believe that it is better not to start a conflict with NATO, let's say, at present. So there are fears that Western missiles will come to us from Ukraine. But it's difficult to answer right now,” a high-ranking source in the Kremlin admitted to us.
A general from Gerasimov’s entourage confirmed these fears and expressed the hope that “the escalation will not yet go beyond the boundaries of [the old borders of Ukraine].” He refused to talk about the war with NATO. But he noticed that the head of the General Staff, against the backdrop of all the threats, is concerned about the imbalance of the army in connection with the arrests of generals .
At the same time, against the background of the growing threat of an escalation of the conflict with NATO, talk about a possible temporary transfer of the capital from Moscow has become more frequent. Let us remember that such a transfer was discussed back in 2022. Then Sergei Shoigu proposed to strike Ukraine with nuclear weapons; a serious response from the West was possible.
Discussions about moving the capital began with renewed vigor in May of this year, when our relations with the British and other NATO countries worsened. And now concern about what will happen to Moscow is growing.
“I would move the capital. There are options, but I won't reveal them to you so that the enemies don't find out. I expressed all my thoughts on this matter to Vladimir Vladimirovich, he promised to think about it. By the way, I would move the Ministry of Defense to Sevastopol. Let them know how to work in war conditions. I also conveyed this position to the president,” a Kremlin source close to Vladimir Putin told us.
Let us note that new rumors about the possible transfer of the capital appeared among representatives of our elites several weeks ago. This fact was confirmed to us by several sources. Moreover, they name both plausible versions of the temporary capital (Kazan, Yaroslavl), and strange versions that we personally find difficult to believe. For example, that the capital of Russia will be moved to Vladivostok.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4143
Yes, move it to 符拉迪沃斯托克 / Vladivostok ;-)
or with the Chinese name 海參崴 and not just a transliteration.
The Kremlin is pursuing a concerted effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and has likely expanded this effort to senior officers commanding Russian combat operations in Ukraine. The Russian Investigative Committee announced on May 23 the arrests of Russian Deputy Chief of the General Staff and Head of its Main Communications Directorate Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin and Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Department for State Procurement, Vladimir Verteletsky.[1] Shamarin is accused of accepting a bribe of at least 36 million rubles (about $392,000), and two defendants in the Russian telecommunications industry have agreed to testify against him.[2] Verteletsky is accused of corruption and accepting a large bribe with total damages of 70 million rubles (about $763,000).[3] Five senior Russian MoD officials and former military commanders have been arrested on corruption charges since the arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on April 24, and a Russian insider source previously claimed that six more MoD officials plan to resign following former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s removal from the MoD.[4] The Kremlin is likely using the guise of corruption charges as an excuse to hide the real reasons for ousting specific individuals from the MoD who have fallen from favor, as ISW has recently assessed.[5]
Official Kremlin statements and milblogger speculation about the arrests and command changes signal that more senior officers could face removal. Russian state newswire TASS cited Russian law enforcement on May 23 as saying there will be continued investigations in connection with Shamarin’s arrest.[9] Some Russian milbloggers and insider sources have alleged that some of the arrested officials have ties to Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov but have largely not gone so far as to claim that Gerasimov himself will be removed.[10] Peskov oddly stated on May 13 that “no changes are foreseen yet” when specifically asked about Gerasimov’s position, however, suggesting that Gerasimov’s tenure over the longer term is not assured.[11] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably denied on May 23 that there is a “campaign” against Russian MoD officials, instead asserting that the MoD arrests are part of a consistent fight against corruption.[12] Peskov has previously deflected reporters’ questions about the Russian MoD, and his decision to answer questions about the MoD’s command changes and arrests indicates that the Kremlin may want its support of these purges.[13] Peskov’s claim that the removals are part of a consistent effort are difficult to square with the sudden flurry of dismissals and arrests at an anomalous rate and with high publicity.
Russian milbloggers largely celebrated the arrests of Russian MoD officials they have claimed were inept and speculated about possible additional removals of senior commanders and officials. Russian ultranationalist milbloggers celebrated the arrests of Shamarin and Verteletsky and the alleged removal of Akhmedov and have offered criticisms of MoD officials and military officers more vocally than they had been doing before the start of the arrests in late April.[14] The milbloggers began speculating about which officials and commanders could be removed or charged next. Some named a deputy defense minister as likely next to face investigation and pointed to supposed connections between arrested or dismissed individuals and remaining MoD and military officials, presumably to indicate future possible targets.[15] Many milbloggers vaguely claimed that Russian authorities are not done with their investigations and detentions of these officials and celebrated the arrests as the start of an effort to bring corrupt officials to justice under new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.[16] The Kremlin is likely allowing these criticisms because they are specifically directed against individuals the MoD is targeting, thereby supporting Belousov’s image as the one who will solve issues within the MoD in a way that Shoigu has not. The Kremlin also benefits from allowing the milbloggers to emphasize that no Russian defense or military official is safe from the consequences of falling from Putin's favor. The Kremlin is likely attempting to secure the loyalty of the milbloggers who have long argued for significant changes in the Russian MoD and military command by allowing them to criticize the ousted individuals after months of active censorship and self-censorship as long as the criticism advances larger Kremlin objectives.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-23-2024
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