... because of their vulnerability to Ukrainian drone strikes.
Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Putin confessed and took communion. The president's enemies immediately became more active. According to our sources surrounded by Vladimir Vladimirovich, he confessed and took communion in one of the churches in Moscow. Everything happened in secret, “so as not to create unnecessary excitement.”
The president's confession and communion are associated with the approach of great holidays, including Easter. At the same time, a number of Putin's internal enemies, as far as we know, became more active after this event. Rumors are now actively spreading in the Kremlin that the president is seriously ill, is in poor psychological condition, has doubts about the results of the SVO [invasion of Ukraine], and in general is almost going to die soon. Additional “arguments” for the gossipers were given by the fact that Putin's confession and communion took place the day after the detention of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov .
“We want to tell all ill-wishers: you can't wait! Vladimir Vladimirovich is healthy and simply fulfilled his Christian duty,” assured one of our interlocutors.
At the same time, it must be said that rumors about terrible diseases and other troubles of the president are actively spreading not only in the Presidential Administration, but also in the government, as well as among a number of high-ranking military personnel.
In this regard, we would like to appeal to Putin's enemies. What are you doing? Are personal ambitions more important to you than the future of the country? Stop before it's too late!
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4004
Recent Russian efforts to increase control over migrants in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack appear to be straining relations between Russia and Tajikistan. The Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) warned Tajik citizens on April 27 to temporarily refrain from traveling to Russia on all modes of transportation “unless absolutely necessary.”[25] Tajik news outlet Asia-Plus reported on April 25 that Russian authorities had stopped almost 200 cars with Tajik license plates from entering Russia at a checkpoint on the Russian-Kazakh border as of April 22.[26] Russian authorities reportedly questioned Tajik citizens and looked through the contents of their phones but allowed children under 14 and people over 60 to enter Russia without questioning. The Tajik MFA reported on April 28 that Russian authorities detained almost 1,000 Tajik citizens at Vnukovo Airport in Moscow and dozens of Tajik citizens in Zhukovsky, Domodedovo, and Sheremetyevo airports in Moscow and held them in poor sanitary conditions.[27]
The Tajik MFA stated that Russian authorities allowed 322 Tajik citizens to enter Russia and added 306 others to an “expulsion list.” Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on April 27 that Russian authorities are taking measures to resolve issues at border checkpoints but defended temporary ”thorough checks” of foreign citizens as ”intensified measures to prevent terrorism.”[28] Tajikistan's Deputy Minister of Labor, Migration, and Employment Shakhnoza Nodiri stated on March 30 that Tajikistan observed an outflow of Tajik migrants from Russia following the Crocus attack and that many Tajik migrants are calling the Tajik government stating that they want to leave Russia out of fear and panic.[29] Russian authorities increased crackdowns against Central Asian migrants entering and living in Russia, particularly Tajiks, after the Crocus City Hall attack since the majority of people arrested in connection with the attack were Tajik citizens.[30]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-28-2024
Four news have appeared about a new tax that will be introduced in Russia.
A special group, which includes representatives of the government, the Central Bank and the Federal Tax Service, has developed a concept for introducing a new tax on childlessness in Russia. We have studied the document that will be presented to Vladimir Putin for consideration and are talking about its main points.
First, the new tax will likely be introduced in August. There are options for postponing it to the fall, but the base date for now is August.
Secondly, the tax rate will be 9% of income. This is practically a settled issue.
Thirdly, childless citizens aged 24 to 52 will most likely pay the tax. This issue is still being discussed; the age of those who will pay for their childlessness may be changed.
Fourthly, according to a number of experts, the new tax will increase the birth rate in Russia by at least 20% over the next two to three years.
Final decisions on the childlessness tax will be made after the president gets acquainted with the concept.
Will Shoigu “come to an end” in May?
This opinion was expressed in conversations with us by several military men close to General Mikhail Teplinsky. They believe that Vladimir Putin will not forgive Sergei Shoigu for the “deeds” of his arrested deputy Timur Ivanov and will replace the Minister of Defense after his inauguration on May 7. “We are confident that Vladimir Vladimirovich will dismiss Shoigu. This issue has long been overdue, and now such events are happening that it is impossible to make such a decision... I think that Shoigu will come to an end as a minister,” said one of our interlocutors.
Sources in the Kremlin note that Shoigu’s resignation is possible, but the situation on this issue is ambiguous. On the one hand, our successes at the front, which are recognized even in Ukraine, speak in favor of Sergei Kuzhugetovich. Plus, Shoigu promises the president advances in new sectors of the front (although, as we wrote , there may be problems there).
On the other hand, Shoigu’s problems are not limited to the fact that a person close to the Minister of Defense turned out to be a thief and, possibly, a traitor. “We are making progress at the front, which is good. But we have many problems. The enemy is shooting at Crimea as they wants, and we still can't begin to properly shoot down the missiles that fly there. Their drones fly as they please throughout Russia. We are awaiting the inauguration of Vladimir Vladimirovich and Victory Day with great anxiety. And we don't know where the Kiev regime will strike these days. Our Crimean Bridge is under threat. And Sergei Kuzhugetovich has no answer to the question of how to protect it,” the [Presidential Administration's] interlocutor listed the problems.
He doesn't know whether Putin will fire Shoigu. But he claims that the president has already been presented (“just in case”) with a list of those who could become the new defense minister. We suggested that there might be the name of General Teplinsky, who, as is known, has long been a supporter of Shoigu’s resignation. But the interlocutor refused to name names. And he emphasized that “the existence of such a list does not mean that Sergei Kuzhugetovich will lose his post.”
GRU Unit 29155, Russia's assassination and sabotage squad, blew up ammunition warehouses in Czechia. It had help from Elena and Nikolai Šapošnikov, a family of deep-cover spies working as arms dealers.
Today, the Czech Intelligence Center for Counter-Terrorism and Organized Crime has released the findings of a years-long investigation into Unit 29155’s role in destroying two Czech government-run weapons and ammunition depots in 2014 in Vrbětice, a small town in the south Moravian region of Czechia. These attacks, which resulted in Prague's expulsion of 18 Russian intelligence officers operating in the country under diplomatic cover, were conducted with explosive devices emplaced by Unit 29155’s most recognizable operatives: Alexander Mishkin, 44, and Anatoly Chepiga, 45. Both would gain international notoriety for trying to murder Sergei Skripal, a GRU officer turned British double agent, along with his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury, England in 2018, with the military-grade nerve agent Novichok.
The Šapošnikovs not only arranged for Mishkin and Chepiga to gain access to two different warehouses in Vrbětice, but they also communicated directly with Gen. Andrei Averyanov, 58, the founding commander of Unit 29155, who tasked them with facilitating violence against their adoptive nation.
The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory. Financial Times (FT) reported on April 29 that Baltic ministers are warning that Russia is behind recent cases of GPS jamming that have interfered with commercial navigation signals and forced two Finnair flights to turn back in the middle of flights from Helsinki to Tartu in the past week.[20] FT estimated that GPS jamming has affected “tens of thousands” of civilian flights in recent months. UK outlet the Sun also reported on April 23 that suspected Russian GPS jamming impacted over three thousand UK civilian flights over the Baltic region, and British officials also believe that Russia jammed the satellite signal of a Royal Air Force jet that was transporting British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland in March.[21] Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna told FT that Estonia considers recent GPS jamming instances “part of Russia's hostile activities” and a “hybrid attack.”[22]
FT noted that there are three suspected sources — Russian electronic warfare (EW) assets in Kaliningrad; another source in Russia causing GPS disturbances in Estonia and Finland; and a third source that is active farther north and impacting the northern parts of Norway and Finland.[23] An open-source intelligence account focusing on GPS jamming in the Baltic region assessed that the GPS jammer affecting the Estonian flights is in Russia roughly halfway between St. Petersburg and Narva, Estonia.[24] ISW has observed widespread GPS disruptions across Poland and the Baltics since late December 2023.[25]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-29-2024
The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia. This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.
https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1785045420185473079
GPS jamming map
Too many people who know nothing have suddenly decided that they need to talk about what’s going on in Ukraine.
It is not easy to jam GPS. The receive antennas will generally look upward and will not be receiving much signal at all horizontal or downwards. So if you’re going to jam you’ll need to be probably in an airplane. Airplanes do not have huge amounts of power for radio transmitters.
Let’s go a step past that and recognize that GPS is more or less ancient. China has its own GPS equivalent system, the EU has its own GPS equivalent system, Russia does, and Japan and India both have systems that are somewhat regional. Ditto India. So jamming GPS doesn’t deny satellite navigation. All you have to do is have another receiver aboard.
And then of course there is INS which is not jammable.
Too many people who know nothing are talking too much.
Airlines report GPS signal jamming: Russia gets the blame
Jamming is considered to be very easy to do because it only takes a very, very weak signal to make a GPS receptor go dark, and tools capable of jamming signals can be bought online.
Another hack called spoofing displays a false position of the aircraft. “Spoofing is a bit harder than jamming,” but with the right tools “a reasonably competent hobbyist can do it. We have recently seen spoofed aircraft almost accidentally fly into Iranian airspace without clearance,” which “could have resulted in a shoot down,” Goward said.
“Typical regions where GPS interference has been reported include the Baltic and Kaliningrad area, around the Black Sea, Caspian Sea as well as eastern Mediterranean,” said Jenni Kiiski, spokesperson for Finnair, one of the airlines most affected by GPS jamming. Many of its flights go south from Helsinki over the Baltic Sea and pass near Kaliningrad, she said.
Latvia’s airBaltic has reported similar problems. “It must be admitted that airBaltic’s routes to individual destinations have been also affected by this phenomenon,” said Janis Kristops, safety manager with the carrier.
When GPS interference disrupts airBaltic flights, “the route taken and the location shown on the small cabin screens visible to passengers, as well as possibly on the website Flightradar24, may in exceptional cases differ from the actual route,” Kristops said.
It’s not just a civilian aircraft problem. In mid-March, a military plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps was hit by GPS jamming on its way back from Poland.
https://www.politico.eu/article/airlines-flying-baltic-region-report-gps-signal-russia-gets-blame/
We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?
Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin expressed outrage over Russian authorities’ treatment of Central Asian migrants, particularly Tajik citizens, indicating that increased Russian efforts to control migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack are continuing to strain Tajik-Russian relations. Muhriddin stated in an April 30 phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Russian authorities are violating Tajik citizens’ rights and freedoms in Russia and noted that such treatment of Tajik citizens in Russia does not comply with the Tajik-Russian Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Relations and Allied Cooperation treaties.[15] Muhriddin called Lavrov’s claim that Russia has not taken measures against specific ethnicities or religious minorities following the Crocus City Hall attack false and stated that Russian authorities have had an “exclusively“ negative reaction to Tajik citizens. ISW observed increased crackdowns against Russian indigenous and migrant Muslim communities after the Crocus City Hall attack, including crackdowns against Tajik migrants.[16]
The BBC News Russian Service reported on March 27 that Russian authorities have initiated a significantly increased number of criminal cases for migration law violations since the Crocus attack, particularly against Tajik citizens.[17] The Russian MFA claimed that Lavrov explained to Muhriddin that Russian authorities are temporarily increasing checks on foreigners attempting to enter Russia in an effort to prevent terrorism following the Crocus City Hall attack.[18] The Russian MFA notably did not report Muhriddin’s criticisms of Russian authorities’ treatment of Tajik citizens in Russia, indicating that Russia is likely attempting to downplay the current rift in Tajik-Russian relations but has no intention of scaling back crackdowns.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30-2024
The ashes of the great commander Suvorov were urgently brought to Moscow.
This happened a few days after the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov. Suvorov’s remains were brought at the personal request of Sergei Shoigu.
“Sergei Kuzhugetovich is having difficult times now . That's why he wanted to pray near the ashes of Alexander Vasilyevich and think about important things. Now Sergei Kuzhugetovich is sure: everything will be fine!” - a source close to Shoigu told us.
According to him, Suvorov’s ashes have already been returned to the front. He is located “somewhere in the Ocheretino area” and “helps our fighters advance.” “We are advancing with serious losses. Therefore, we expect that Alexander Vasilyevich will help, and fewer of our guys will die. Both in the DPR and in other sectors of the front,” the military man explained.
In addition, the ashes of Prince Grigory Potemkin-Tavrichesky will soon be sent to Crimea. Why Shoigu wants to send the remains of the prince there, [See below]
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4018
Shoigu ordered to strengthen Crimea with the help of the ashes of Grand Duke Potemkin.
The remains of Prince Grigory Potemkin-Tavrichesky, which were taken out of Kherson in 2022, will be transported across Crimea to strengthen morale and protect our military. This decision was made by Sergei Shoigu. “The situation in Crimea now is difficult, military personnel are dying, we are suffering losses - let's remember the same Dzhankoy and the recent tragic events there. Crimea needs the intercession of great figures of Russian history. Prince Potemkin is just such a person,” one of the deputy defense ministers told us. According to him, it will be especially important to take the remains of the Grand Duke to air defense units, which in Crimea “now does not always work as it should.” Another source in the ministry noted: Shoigu recognized the successful actions with the ashes of commander Alexander Suvorov , who continue to be carried along the front line. “Sergei Kuzhugetovich is confident that the ashes of Alexander Vasilyevich strengthened the morale of our military, and we are now moving forward at the front. Prince Potemkin can become the heavenly protector of Crimea, for which he did a lot during his lifetime,” our interlocutor is sure.
We have decided not to express our opinion on this initiative. Let us only note that among the military there are more and more supporters that the ashes of Suvorov (who was damaged as a result of one of the shelling) be returned to the grave. According to our data, Shoigu is not yet considering this option. As for Potemkin's ashes, according to some sources, now he “is constantly next to Sergei Kuzhugetovich.” Shoigu prays next to him before making important decisions.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3969
The Russians are regressing to magical thinking. They are heading for the intellectual end.
The United Nations (UN) and Western organizations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People's Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia's war effort. Reuters reported on April 29 that the UN North Korean sanctions monitoring panel issued a report to the UN Security Council (UNSC) confirming that Russian forces used a North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missile in a strike on Kharkiv City on January 2, 2024.[24] The panel reportedly noted that Russia's use of North Korean missiles violated the 2006 UN arms embargo on North Korea. Russia vetoed an annual UNSC resolution extending the monitoring panel on March 28, and the panel's mandate expired on April 30.[25]
The Economist reported on April 29 that the PRC is providing Russia with semiconductors, navigation equipment, jet parts, ball bearings, computer numerical controlled tools, and other dual-use equipment supporting Russian arms production.[26] The Economist, citing data from the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), reported that Russia often imports goods through a complex system of shell companies, many of which can be traced back to the PRC. The Economist noted that Russian imports of goods from the PRC appeared to surge following Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with PRC President Xi Jinping in Moscow in March 2023. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on May 1 that Russian imports of dual-use items from the PRC have helped Russia significantly increase its defense industrial production and that 70 percent of Russia's machine tools and 90 percent of its microelectronics come from the PRC.[27] ISW previously reported about the recent uptick in public meetings between Russian, PRC, North Korean, Iranian, and Belarussian officials that underscores these countries’ deepening mutual partnership aimed at confronting the West.[28]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-1-2024
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