Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Should we expect a new war in the Balkans? Spoiler: more likely yes than no.
The situation between Kosovo and Serbia continues to remain unstable. And although little media attention is now being paid to this topic, non-public intelligence sources talk about the threat of a new war in the Balkans. There is also a shadow of the Kremlin in this whole story, which, however, is not surprising.
“Russia benefits from destabilizing the situation in the Balkans. Europe will be forced to look away from Ukraine and focus on other problems. In the context of 2024, the mess in Kosovo will be very useful for the Kremlin,” explains an independent expert on the Balkan issue, who wished to remain anonymous. Interlocutors at the Foreign Intelligence Service are not very talkative about this, but make it clear that active work is underway in Europe. Including in the Balkans. But officially, Russia, of course, “is not conducting any operations and is certainly not shaking the situation.”
Sources in the foreign diplomatic corps hint that the threat of war in the Balkans is one of the main challenges for the European continent in the near future. After the war between Russia and Ukraine, of course. Closed reports say that in case of failures on the Ukrainian fronts, the Kremlin may throw wood on the Balkan fire. And this could happen as early as March-April.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3331
In the first Cold War, Russia started 80% of all conflicts, now in Cold War 2.0 it is more than that.
“Russia and China have “completely gotten rid of third-country currencies in mutual transactions”
…meaning nearly everything is in yuan. No more hard currency for Russian oil.
In a recent visit to China, Russian deputy prime minister Andrei Belusov stated that, in 2023, the use of the Russian ruble and China's yuan in trade between the two countries reached 95%. From January to October this year, 68% of Russian trade was made using the respective national currencies of the two countries, according to Russia's Minister of Economic Development, Maksim Reshetnikov.
Russia has used the yuan in trade transactions with Mongolia, the Philippines, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Japan, Tajikistan and Singapore.
Currently, imports from Asia, particularly from continental China and Hong Kong, are 40% of all Russia's imports. About 60% of the country's sovereign wealth fund is in RMB (Renminbi, the official currency of China) assets, and 40% of its foreign exchange reserves are also in RMB assets.
No one wants rubles, but the Chinese currency is not convertible, but better that the rubbles.
It will be exciting when the Chinese real estate bubble bursts.
“We found Alexei Navalny,” Kira Yarmysh said on 25 December, adding that he was now in northern Russia. His team had had no contact with him since 6 December, after he was moved from a previous prison. Mr Navalny, considered one of Vladimir Putin's leading opponents, has been imprisoned since 2021.
“His lawyer saw him today. Alexei is fine,” Ms Yarmysh wrote on the Telegram messaging app. She said he had been moved to the IK-3 penal colony in Kharp in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, in northern Russia. The new prison, nicknamed the “Polar Wolf” colony, is considered one of the toughest in Russia. Most detainees held there have been convicted of serious crimes.
Shoigu asked Putin to cancel the task of taking Avdeevka before the New Year.
According to two of our sources in the Ministry of Defense, the minister made such a request to the president, reporting to him about the liberation of Marinka in the DPR by our troops. “Vladimir Vladimirovich, I consider the capture of Maryinka a great military success. At the same time , taking Avdeevka before the New Year (Putin's corresponding order was recently received by the military - ed.) is extremely difficult,” Shoigu said. He justified his request by “serious losses of personnel and equipment, as well as fierce enemy resistance.”
Putin responded (not on camera) by calling the liberation of Marinka a success, but “not so serious that one could be very proud of it.” “Well done with Maryinka. But I wouldn't be too happy about taking an almost completely destroyed city. I praise you, but all military personnel must understand: we need more serious victories,” the president said.
Vladimir Vladimirovich did not cancel his order regarding Avdeevka, but promised to return to this issue in a few days, sources say. Not one of them understood (just as Shoigu did not understand) whether Putin would demand victory in Avdievka before the New Year or would accept it if there was no such victory within the specified time frame.
Is “Russia's friend and partner” helping Ukraine bomb Crimea? The military told us what would happen next
A few days ago we wrote: Erdogan (whom many of us still consider “Russia's friend and partner”) again demanded that Crimea be transferred to Turkey's control. Otherwise, he threatened that the attacks on the peninsula will continue, and “there will be no living place left there.” And he hinted that he would help guide Ukrainian missiles and drones to Crimea. The strike, as a result of which we lost the Novocherkassk landing ship, is confirmation that Turkey has begun to implement its threats, many of our military interlocutors believe. “The enemy missiles were aimed at Feodosia very professionally. So they bypassed our air defense and hit the most vulnerable places. This definitely could not have happened without outside help,” our source at the Black Sea Fleet said about this.
Whether it was Turkey who could have corrected the strike, he does not yet know for sure, but he says that it is very similar. It seems our interlocutor did not reveal why, citing the confidentiality of the information. And the General Staff gave a forecast about what could happen next to Crimea. “I could lie and say everything will be fine. But I won't. The enemy will strike. The enemy has learned to penetrate our air defense; apparently, he has a lot of missiles, plus NATO is helping. In this situation, I believe it is necessary to strengthen the air defense of Crimea. To be honest, I would take some of the systems from Moscow - they are already well protected there,” an interlocutor among the generals told us.
Another expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that “all these military officers of ours shout a lot that they abandoned Ukraine, they don't give it weapons, and Western missiles are constantly flying towards us.” “This is war. You need to treat your opponent adequately. We need to tell the truth to the residents of Crimea so that they can protect themselves during enemy attacks. The military must be kept in constant combat readiness. Only in this case will we win,” the source is confident.
Ukrainian attack on Crimean port damages Russian warship, Moscow says
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4205910/posts
Russian blogger:
There were Kalibrs on board the attacked BDK “Novocherkassk”. The large landing ship “Novocherkassk” attacked last night is unlikely to be restored. Most likely, they won’t even try. This was reported by our sources in the navy.
“There was a strong detonation. The landing craft was loaded to capacity,” our interlocutor said. According to him, there were at least 2 Kalibr missiles on board. There were also other high-precision weapons, including KAB-500 aerial bombs - at least 4 pieces, one of which went under water and miraculously did not explode. There were other weapons as well.
Sources in the fleet called the incident a “tragedy and a catastrophe,” because according to updated data, 23 crew members were killed. Most of them, by order of the command, rested on board the ship, and not in barracks and hotels, which led to the tragedy. “Dozens of bodies, some burned alive right in the cabins. Horrible,” an experienced sailor and our longtime friend described the situation.
The command insists that the enemy could have been directed at the ship by one of the local residents or even sailors from other ships. “A thorough check has begun,” the fleet summed up.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3339
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalibr_(missile_family)
perhaps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAB-500KR
or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KAB-500S-E
very good intel prior to the attack
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to portray himself as a gracious Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, while contrasting his apparent attention to the Russian irregular forces’ with the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) incompetence. Putin demonstratively ordered Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on December 25 to promote a Russian volunteer, Senior Lieutenant Alexander Troshin, to the rank of major for his efforts in fighting for Marinka (west of Donetsk City) - allowing Troshin to bypass the rank of captain.[42] Prior to the order, Putin asked Shoigu if he had any suggestions on how to best award Troshin, to which Shoigu responded that the only rank he can offer him is the rank of captain despite the fact that Troshin is a commander of a tank battalion – a role usually occupied by lieutenant colonels. Shoigu stated that although Troshin is a successful fighter and joined the war effort as a volunteer rather than a as an officer, the military command cannot promote him to a higher rank because of a presidential decree that prohibits such a promotion. Putin said that he is aware of the military service regulation on ranks but noted that “this regulation is approved by the presidential decree, so the president has the right to amend this regulation.” Putin notably ignored the regulation rather than amending it, however, suggesting that he sees himself not merely as the lawgiver but also as above the law. Putin concluded this discussion by stating that the Russian military command should support fighters like Troshin who want to become professional servicemen – likely in reference to those who want to become contract servicemen (kontrakniki) within the Russian Armed Forces. Putin's discussion with Shoigu made it seem as though Putin was indirectly blaming Shoigu for failing to change the structure of the Russian Armed Forces to accommodate the new class of Russian servicemen – the volunteers (dobrovoltsy). Russian milbloggers have consistently complained that the Russian command does not award higher ranks to dobrovoltsy despite their combat experience, instead reserving these ranks for Russian professional servicemen.[43] Putin's statement is likely part of an ongoing effort to blame the Russian MoD and the Russian General Staff for failing to address dobrovoltsy's concerns while presenting himself as an involved war-time leader who is actively working on resolving these disparities.[44] Putin's recent focus on defining and interacting with Russian irregular volunteer formations may also be indicative of Russia's formalization efforts and possible integration of dobrovoltsy as a new but separate class of forces within the Russian Armed Forces.
full report https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-26-2023
Our losses in the Kherson region have seriously increased, strange rumors are circulating among the military.
Our sources in the Dnepr group of troops spoke about the situation in the Kherson region, including in the Krynok region. And they ask to make this information public, since the command does not respond to their constant non-public signals. We understand that the information is complex, but we could not refuse the military's request . Here's what they told us: Firstly, over the past few days, losses on this section of the front have increased sharply. After the enemy shot down three Su-34s at once , our fighters in the Krynok area and other sectors of the front on the left bank of the Dnieper were left with almost no air support.
The Aerospace Forces admit that until it became clear what the Ukrainians received for the new air defense, “a decision was made to save the planes and pilots.” Moreover, under the appeal of the pilots themselves (we remind you that they are asking to reduce the number of combat sorties until their aircraft are sufficiently protected from enemy attacks), more than 25 signatures have already been collected to the command. Some pilots fly combat missions and are persuaded by threats and persuasion. But this air support for our troops in the Kherson region is not enough. As a result of such events, sources note, in recent days, on the left bank of the Dnieper, from 30 to 60 (there was one day with such losses) of our soldiers are dying every day.
Secondly, the deterioration of the situation led to strange rumors among the military. “They say that the enemy has received several dozen F-16 aircraft. That they brought him air defense that would cover at least half of Crimea. At the same time, they say that Vladimir Vladimirovich [Putin] first decided to release part of the military from the front , and now allegedly changed his mind. In general, they say anything,” noted one of our interlocutors.
The General Staff categorically denied all these rumors. And they promised us to respond to requests from the military who are in the Kherson region. “But there is no need to be dramatic. This is war, and, unfortunately, there are losses. Just like stupid rumors. Yes, it's hard, but we will win,” one of the General Staff generals said about this.
The Russian state-owned Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) found that Russians are increasingly less trusting of Russian state TV and are turning to social media and the internet for news.[39] VCIOM conducted a study in December, which found that Russian public trust in state TV channels had declined from 46 percent to 26 percent in a span of seven years. VCIOM concluded that the TV audience in Russia has also shrunk from 42 percent to 40 percent since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. VCIOM observed that the Russian audience that reportedly trusts the internet as its primary source of information constituted 44 percent of respondents and exceeded the number of Russians who relied on state TV for the first time. VCIOM specified that of Russians who prefer the internet as their primary source 19 percent rely on news sites, 14 percent get their news from social media networks, and 11 percent prefer instant messaging platforms including Telegram. The study found that over the past two years Russians’ use of instant messaging platforms as their primary source of information increased almost threefold – likely reflecting the growing popularity of Russian milbloggers on Telegram over the nearly two years of Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. VCIOM also observed an increase in the number of Russians who do not trust any media or social networks from three percent prior to the full-scale invasion to eight percent in December 2023. These Russians reported preferring “kitchen conversations” for their information, which the Russian outlet The Moscow Times compared to information learning practices in the Soviet Union.
The decrease in Russian trust and reliance on state TV is likely partially reflected in changing technology and generational shifts, as well as public disillusionment with Russian TV propaganda since the start of the full-scale invasion. ISW previously reported on statistics that showed that the number of Russian bloggers on Telegram increased by 58 percent and that Telegram saw the highest percent increase of daily published content in the first eight months of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[40] ISW assessed on November 20, 2022, that this increase of Telegram use for information purposes likely highlighted growing Russian distrust of Kremlin media.[41] The Kremlin, however, continues to support the expansion of the Russian ultranationalist online community and is attempting to lure key voices in the Russian information space to amplify state narratives to the growing internet-based audience.[42]
full report; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-27-2023
Russian lady tells everything like there’s no tomorrow
4 min video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_LMdoCuSRM
The Russian MoD announced on December 28 that Russia has over 640,000 contract servicemen (kontrakniki) - the first-ever official Russian announcement about the number of kontrakniki in the Russian Armed Forces since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.[82] Russian President Vladimir Putin recently announced that over 480,000 individuals signed military contracts with the Russian MoD in 2023, and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev similarly stated on December 28 that 500,000 kontrakniki have joined the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces since January 1, 2023.[83] The Russian MoD also claimed that over 40,000 people fought as members of BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) units since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine and that over 7,000 personnel operating within BARS units are currently on the battlefield.[84] The Russian MoD also noted that BARS includes Cossack units and that BARS has had the highest number of recruits from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast, totaling 6,500 recruits. Russian officials may be counting all military personnel such as mobilized troops, actual kontrakniki, and volunteers (dobrovoltsy) as part of the presented 640,000 kontrakniki number in an effort to exaggerate the proportion of Russia's mixed forces that seem to be professionals. The Kremlin significantly lowered qualifications for kontrakniki in early 2023, prioritizing generating a high number of recruits over recruiting a smaller cadre of more experienced men to preserve the kontrakniki service class as the backbone of Russia's professional military force.[85]
Russian opposition outlet SOTA reported that the Russian MoD may be planning to increase Russia's expeditionary force in Ukraine by redeploying active military personnel in Russia to Ukraine.[86] SOTA observed that Russian officials prepared amendments for the law “On determining the procedure and conditions for sending military personnel of the Russian Armed Forces.” The amendments, if passed, will allow the Russian command to deploy previously uncommitted military personnel to assist the military command, formations, and military units directly involved “in the performance of tasks relating to resolving crisis situations and localizing armed conflicts in peacetime” for a period of more than 30 days but no more than one year. SOTA observed that previously the law did not provide grounds for the deployment of military personnel to localized armed conflicts in peacetime.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian leadership is trying to train more junior lieutenants in a compressed timeframe to offset high personnel losses among junior officers.[87] The GUR noted that Russian servicemen who pass accelerated training and are promoted to the lowest officer ranks immediately deploy to the frontlines. ISW previously observed that Russian Airborne (VDV) Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky alluded to a similar phenomenon in which VDV command schools deployed recent graduates to the frontlines in Ukraine skipping periods of either advanced training or service with units not in combat.[88]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2023
“Quantity has a quality all its own.” ― Joseph Stalin
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/795954-quantity-has-a-quality-all-its-own
Russia's only advantage is mass. The surest way to undermine Russian mass is to destroy Russian hq’s, logistics, and artillery. Long-range precision strike capability that can reach every corner of Russian-occupied Ukraine will make that possible.
https://twitter.com/general_ben/status/1740313065508532575
off the books...
1. expired and removed from TACOM as far as usable due to age.
2 dud rate of the sub munitions are over 1% meaning that they can not be used... even in combat.
3 they have been replaced by newer ATACMS and are not in any contingency plan, and the new ATACMs are now being replaced by PSRM rockets.
4 they are being held in storage only due to it being too expensive to demil right now and DLA is trying to find out the best way to scrap them....
5 no one wants them due to the dud rate and so they cant be sold.. BUT they CAN be transferred free of charge under the excess defense articles act.
that's what I mean by off the books
https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1738933929506201642
Although the general rule prohibits the transfer of munitions with a dud rate that exceeds the 1% threshold, The Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (as amended through December 2022) provides an exception to the rule. According to Sec. 614 of the Act, the “President may authorize the furnishing of assistance” to a foreign government “without regard to” other relevant provisions of U.S. law—including appropriations legislation—when the President determines “that to do so is important to the security interests of the United States.” https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/COMPS-1071/pdf/COMPS-1071.pdf#page=202
It was done with cluster munition https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-biden-was-justified-to-send-cluster-munitions-to-ukraine
Shoigu brought Putin a strange gift.
Defense Minister Shoigu recently came to the Kremlin with an extremely unexpected gift for the president. It was a plaster figurine of Vladimir Vladimirovich in the image of the ruler of the planet. Shoigu thought such a gesture was appropriate, but both Putin himself and his close circle perceived the gift with caution.
The fact is that on April 2, the famous military correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky was killed in a St. Petersburg cafe . They brought him a plaster figurine with explosives inside. They noticed something was wrong with this gift to the president, although the FSO checked the box with the gift at the entrance.
Honestly, some of Shoigu’s actions recently raise so many questions. If you remember, we told you that not long ago the head of the Ministry of Defense got drunk and in a narrow circle let slip about his desire to become president . Moreover, at one of the meetings Shoigu completely doubted the correctness of the country's course. This became the reason for his conflict with the head of the AP Vaino .
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3351
Anton Vaino, head of the Presidential Administration. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anton_Vaino
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.