Four Regions Across China Are Under ‘Wartime’ Mode Following COVID-19 Outbreaks

New outbreaks were reported throughout China as locals complained about strict lockdown policies.

China’s National Health Commission—the country’s top health agency—announced that new COVID-19 patients were diagnosed in the northeastern-most province of Heilongjiang and in southwestern Sichuan province on Dec. 13.

Meanwhile, the Xinjiang region announced new asymptomatic carriers (Chinese authorities count them in a separate category from people who test positive and exhibit symptoms), and the southern island province of Hainan quarantined at least 43 people to prevent possible spreading of COVID-19.

The province announced new infections on Sunday, including a patient living in Tahe city.

Tahe became the latest city to enter wartime mode, after Suifenhe and Dongning were placed under lockdown on Dec. 10.

It’s unclear what is the true scale of the outbreak; authorities have previously underreported data and covered up information.

On Saturday, the Suifenhe and Dongning city governments launched more strict quarantine policies.

Suifenhe ruled that all residents must stay at home, with only one member of each household allowed to go out shopping, once every three days. The family member must return home within two hours.

In addition, weddings were banned, while funerals were limited to no more than five participants.

All hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies were instructed by authorities to record and report all who purchased medicines to treat fever, cough, and virus infection—common symptoms of COVID-19.

The Dongning government allowed only one member of each household to go outside and shop once every two days, and up to eight people to participate in funerals. Weddings were also banned.

Sichuan health authorities announced dozens of new COVID-19 infections since entering wartime mode on Dec. 8, with the entire province under lockdown.

On Dec. 12, a netizen in Chengdu, the capital, shared a video on social media, in which a woman could be seen trying to leave a sealed-off residential compound by crossing the fence that was temporarily set up. She told the people standing nearby that she was not infected with COVID-19, so she should be allowed to leave her compound.

But security officers on the other side of the fence subdued her immediately after she climbed the fence. Later, she is taken away by an ambulance.

China’s Xinjiang region in the northwest announced new COVID-19 cases on Sunday.

The regional government announced that a man who lives in Gaochang district of Turpan city was diagnosed as a COVID-19 asymptomatic carrier on Saturday. Then, his wife, mother, and one co-worker tested positive.

On Hainan island, authorities announced on Sunday that all 29 members of a tourist group and 14 other people were quarantined at hotels in Sanya city, saying they were close contacts of asymptomatic carriers.

Five townships in northern China’s Inner Mongolia were still listed as “medium-risk” areas for COVID-19 spread as of Sunday.

Areas of Inner Mongolia have been under lockdown since infections were discovered in Manzhouli city on Nov. 21.

Heilongjiang, Sichuan, and Xinjiang have not yet announced where the latest outbreaks originated from.

[And there won’t be. They aren’t going to have accurate data on Chinese state TV either. What’s important for them is not how many have died. What’s important for them is what numbers can be reported which minimize the damage to the Party and keep everyone in line. Numbers too low and nobody believes them and start asking a bunch of questions. Numbers too high and everyone loses confidence in the Party’s ability to effectively manage the country. So the Party will report the number that they determine puts them in the best possible light.

That’s all you’ll hear out of China.]

China has always been a seething mass of individual ambition. Elite struggles for power have been part and parcel of historical chronicles outside of China. What’s unique about China, IMHO, is that the ambition goes all the way down to the lowliest peasant. 2200 years ago, a jumped-up peasant joined a mass revolt, vaulted to the top by (1) playing a secondary role in defeating the ancien regime and (2) wiping out the players who played the primary role, then established a regime that lasted 400 years (with an interruption caused by an ambitious courtier who revolted and set himself up as emperor), thanks to his precaution of either forcibly retiring or killing the military commanders (each of whom had their own agendas, much like term-limited Roman consuls) who had brought him to power.

While the commanders were themselves were not themselves necessarily superstitious, their followers, who risked their lives on the battlefield, were always on the alert for signs and portents. And one of the key signs of imminent regime collapse was some natural disaster. Something like a pandemic has traditionally fit the bill. Adventurers, within and without the regime have traditionally seized on these fig leaves as an opportunity to seize the throne for themselves.

In the wake of catastrophes, charismatic men possessed of organizational skills have repeatedly rallied large numbers to their banners and either established new regimes, or come within striking distance, doing great damage, and paving the way for the next challenger to finish the job. That is why Xi Jinping is trying to keep any damaging information from coming out. His very life could depend on it.

There has not been accurate data on how many people actually died from Covid-19 in China.

...but we can estimate.

Per Worldometers, China's count of 3 fatalities per 1MM (FPM) is lower than 84% of all countries on the planet.

Ok, stop laughing.

If China was just at the median (Indonesia, at 68 FPM), there would be 95,200 fatalities. Now we are getting somewhere.

If much-maligned Sweden's FPM of 742 was applied to PRC, we'd get 1,038,800 fatalities. Now we are REALLY getting somewhere.

Apply the US' 923 FPM to China's 1.4bn people - you get 1,304,800 fatalities. Belgium's globally-leading 1,546 FPM - you get 2,164,400 fatalities.

Now, it is entirely possible that China has a FPM that is higher than that in Belgium. What evidence have we of that? Well, perhaps the ONLY possible corroborative evidence came from data published by China’s three largest cell phone carriers, showing that subscriptions dropped a total of 20.65 million in January and February, with China Mobile Ltd. reporting a drop of nearly 7.25 million subscribers in the two-month period.

Now, the AP cried FAKE NEWS here, quoting the firm that "It was mainly due to reduced business and social activities resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak...Many customers in China have multiple SIM cards and it is common that they use their non-primary SIM cards to do these activities.”

Frankly, I was skeptical that this cellphone data was prima facie evidence of the acutal PRC COVID19 death toll. But then, I was informed that life in China requires a cell phone and a QR Code. So, you can't just eliminate your cell in China. Maybe, however, you don't need two if times are tough. Thus, let's see how these numbers play out over time.

So, if you go to China Mobil's Investor Relations site, where they publish monthly mobil phone data, you'll see their business was growing strongly in 2018 and 2019 (even in December 2019). But starting in January 2020, there was a net loss of 862,000 customers - the first monthly net loss of customers in at least two years. Then came the avalanche of 7.254MM lost customers in February.

There was a curious rebound in March of 4.134MM net new customers - maybe that's all the people who aren't quite dead yet turning back on their second phone. For the rest of 2020, it's been a series of puts and takes.

At the end of October, China Mobile was down a net 3.9MM customers for the year.

Now, China's economy is allegedly surging (yeh, right). So, logically, if there are no more "reduced business and social activities resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak" then we'd see a massive (instead of the March partial) return in net new customers. But we ain't seein' that.

Further, if China Mobile was 1/3 of the total loss in those early months, and if we assume the other two firms moved in tandem (someone with more free time and patience than me can check that out), then China has seen a net decline of about 12 million mobile phone customers in 2020...in a country where you must have a phone and QR codes.

If ALL of these lost customers are COVID19 fatalities, that'd give the PRC a FPM value of 8,571 - 5.5x higher than Belgium! Even if it's just half or 6MM dead people in China from the virus, that would STILL make it the world leader in FPM and be disruptive to the WHO etc narrative of China being a good global citizen.

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