Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
Then why are you here? Get on with your life, take your ball and go home.
Well this is why we need actual conservatives or at least nationalists in the GOP. When they win, they tend to do nothing but their business version of globalism.
They never take action to kick out illegals, etc. We need primaries against the RINOs.
Easy- they concentrated on the big one- and if they get by with it, they are certain to fix the rest.
Republicans are not taking a DAMNED THING until we get rid of the damned voting machines and mail-in ballots and same day registration/voting.
R’s won’t win a DAMNED THING!
Biden promises to open the floodgates for illegal aliens. At least 20 million people, given a Medicaid card, driver’s license, a Section 8 housing voucher, and they will be registered as Democrats within 10 minutes of crossing the border. Little formalities like citizenship won’t matter.
I have to chuckle when I hear hopes about upcoming elections! Do you people seriously think the Dems are going to allow honest elections going forward? Don’t make me laugh!
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It was a “ mistake” that Trump got in. The Dems and GOP will make damn sure the door is nailed shut to stop that sort of uncontrolled event from ever happening in the future.
538 who?
The Democrats in blue cities and counties have perfected fraud.
Unless state legislatures rebuild electoral systems to prevent dirty voter rolls, mail-in ballots, ballot harvesting, late registrations, etc… ITS NOT EVEN WORTH VOTING.
“ As if Dominion will allow that.”
Exactly! If our weak kneed reps don’t help Trump’s Team as well as Sydney Powell’s efforts then it won’t matter. They will be emboldened and will cheat even more since they are allowed to do so with impunity and their media sycophants, especially Fox News now, will cover it up.
“there wont BE a “Republican” party in 2 years.”
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Yes there will be a Republican party....but it will be for show. We’ll hear how the election process is fixed and safe too. Many will fall for it again.
I believe that in Rome the Caesars kept the Senate so that the people believed they still had a Republic....when they did not.
If this election isn’t overturned why would anyone waste their time to vote in 2022 or ever again.
Hard to do if the elections are not honest
This country will not be recognizable in 2022.
biden has said that he will grant amnesty to the great unwashed within his “first 100 days”..’elections’ will be a quaint memory.
Trump was our last hope...that hope is fading fast...
I voted twice in my life..Nixon and Trump...never again will I cast a vote ..
They probably took it back this time.
I believe that in Rome the Caesars kept the Senate so that the people believed they still had a Republic....when they did not.
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Quite true. They even continued to hold elections. Of course it had no meaning. The Senate by then was nothing but a bunch of preening do-nothing elites who wanted the prestige of a title and didn’t give a damn about the country or the people . Hmm. Sounds eerily familiar.
The GOP is dead, they just don’t know it yet.
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They are not dead.....they are complicit. Wake up.
You’re right. Unless there is complete election reform, I won’t bother voting.
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