Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022

fivethirtyeight.com ^

[Conserv]

Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).

Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.

The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.

If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.

[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]

On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.

[gov_bean_ counter]

This country will not be recognizable in 2022.

[atc23]

LOL - right. Why would I ever vote for a ball-less republican? Refuse to fight this stolen election and you can count on never being in power again

[MarvinStinson]

If the Soros presidential slate gets in now,

there won't be any USA left in 2022.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I WIIL NEVER vote again PERIOD!! I have voted for EVERY election for the last 45 years and I AM DONE SCREW IT!!! Screw the republicans I can tell you one thing they THINK they have this new expanded party well they are going to be astonished at what they really have left!!{ NOTHING!!

[JonPreston]

funny how dominion allowed the republicans to flip a dozen seats in the house.

Kinda like all the 5-4 supreme court decisions with the 5th vote rotating as needed. They give political oafs just enough to think it's on the level.

[JonPreston]

funny how dominion allowed the republicans to flip a dozen seats in the house.

Kinda like all the 5-4 supreme court decisions with the 5th vote rotating as needed. They give political oafs just enough to think it's on the level.

[metmom]

The democrats will never allow it.

You thought the election fraud was bad this year, just wait until next cycle if Trump does not prevail.

[Dr. Ursus]

They took out John James in Michigan. Now, they can direct their fraud on the Senate and House!

[Liz]

The really great thing about redistricting empowering Republicans is that it is a huge slapdown to Obama and Eric Holder.

In Massive Blow To Obama and Holder, Republicans Handily Won Virtually Almost Every House Race
Key To Redistricting for Obama's dream: a permanent Dem majority
Thegatewaypundit.com ^ | November 20 2020 | Mike LaChance / FR Posted by SmokingJoe

.....one aspect of the 2020 race is being overlooked even though it’s huge. Not only did Republicans make considerable gains in the House, that no one expected, they won most of the races that will entail redistricting. This is like a double loss for Democrats Every 10 years, after the census, congressional and state legislature districts are redrawn to account for population changes. This gives whoever is drawing the maps the power to maximize the number of districts that favor their party — a tactic known as gerrymandering. And as we wrote last month, the 2020 election represented the last chance for voters to weigh in on who would draw those maps.

Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans. As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.

How did Republicans pull that off? By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake… (Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...

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latimes.com

CIRCA 2019 Obama and Holder take on partisan gerrymandering with redistricting

SOURCE https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-27/obama-partisan-gerrymandering-redistricting-u-initiative

Aug 27, 2019 — In one of his first public political actions since he left the White House, Obama unveiled Redistricting U on Twitter as an in-person training arm ...All On The Line, launched earlier this year, is a combination of Obama's "Organizing For Action" and former Attorney General Eric Holder's "National Redistricting Action Fund."

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cnn.com

CIRCA 2019 Ex-President Barack Obama announced a new initiative that will help volunteers influence redistricting efforts in states across the country. "Redistricting U," an extension of his "All On The Line" campaign, will send trainers to provide free training and tools to volunteers about their state redistricting process, gather feedback on ways to improve their communities and teach them how to be leaders in the fair map movement, according to the initiative's website.

All On The Line, launched earlier this year, is a combination of "Obama's Organizing For Action" and former Attorney General "Eric Holder's National Redistricting Action Fund."

Obama said he has always believed "training is at the heart of organizing." "It's why I made it a priority in my 2008 campaign and throughout our larger movement for change in the years since," Obama said in a statement on the group's website.

He added, "The movement for fair maps will determine the course of progress on every issue we care about for the next decade. And we can't wait to begin organizing when the redistricting process starts in 2021. We need to build this movement from the ground up -- right now."

This is the latest effort by Obama to push for voting reform and fight against gerrymandering. The Obamas have long pushed for increased voter participation and fought against partisan gerrymandering.

Redistricting map.

[Starboard]

We don’t have elections anymore.

************

Agree. Its an insult to call them elections because they won’t meet the definition of the term. What they are is rigged validation. The same thing banana republics and communist regimes do.

[Texas Eagle]

And do what?

[hinckley buzzard]

It may be too late, And it may not be possible now that ballot stuffing has become institutionalized. But there’s always hope I suppose.

[TeddyRay]

Exactly. If the Biden / Harris presidency happens- it’s done. Say goodnight. Last call for freedom is now....

[mass55th]

Good luck with that. Republicans failed miserably to tackle voter fraud during their Congressional majorities over the past 20 years. You’ll be lucky if you keep the gains you got this time around. I see a Democrat landslide in both Houses because the Democrats will make sure it happens.

[CommieCutter]

Nope. Dems will cheat.

[MHGinTN]

What was it the Everly Brothers sang .... Dreaaaaam, dream dream dream, dreeeaam dream dream dream. With the demon rats controlling hout and off-white house, the republicants will not be allowed to take control of the House.

[dp0622]

Who gives a ####?

I’ve voted for my last republican unless Trump runs again under the R party.

I hope he starts his own party.

But he will have enough grief with EVERYONE coming at him to put him away.

People Dont Get It.

dems are the mafia at this point.

Just like Michael Corleone wasn’t happy with winnning...all his enemies had to die..even his brother.

So it is with the dem party

They will go like hell after Trump

And we should step up to stop it when it happens

[George from New England]

if biden gets into the w.h. there will be no fair elections again.
this is msm b.s.

[hinckley buzzard]

Yes if we can hold the Senate now there is a bright light of hope. If they steal the Senate in Georgia, idk what is left.

[Ingtar]

If they had started investigating the fraud in 2014 or sooner, they would have never lost it. Now, if the Dims get away with it this time, there is not a chance in Hell. Between the cheating and the lack of “broken glass” voters, they’ll be lucky to be elected dog catcher.