Posted on 11/23/2020 4:08:17 PM PST by Conserv
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
I have no particular allegiance to the GOP, but someone needs to explain to me what’s to be gained by voting third party when the Democrats are stuffing ballots for their candidates.
Republicans are all talk and no show. Until Trump forced them they didn't do a damn thing they campaigned on.
They are UNIPARTY Swamp Dweller every one.
The next big question for us 80 million Trump voters is, if this goes down, what do we DO about it, having lost the last bastion of a democratic Constitutional Republic (legitimate elections)?
Fine. Wonderful. Quit. But quit everything, including bitching endlessly about it on internet massage forums.
Nothing the GOP says can be trusted, because when it comes down to it, even when they get power they never actually intend to use it to do much of anything. And the one time that someone (Trump) is elected who has the backbone to stand up for America, they do everything they can behind the scenes to undermine him.
I’m done with empty promises. If they want to remain relevant at all, the GOP must prove they are willing to take action NOW, and the best way to prove that is to immediately pull out all the stops in defending Trump’s rightful claim to his election victory. If they don’t do that, then they should just shut up and go away.
Those days are over after the way we’ve been treated by the GOP refusing to stand with us for our President!
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The only way forward for us is the establishment of a new party IMO. A real party that actually stands for something and fights for us.
The GOP has mostly been silent and passive in the face of this massive vote stealing and fraud. If it wasn’t clear before now that they don’t care about us, it certainly is now.
If the Democrats are allowed to steal the 2020 election, you can forget about 2022.There will not be a 2022.
I ain’t voting for them after what these cowardly creatures did and are doing to Trump. It would be a sin to support this perversion. Let the chips fall where they may.
What good is a new party if we have illegitimate “elections” controlled by the ruling party?
Taking your ball and going home skippy?
Unless of course the SAME VOTING system is used once again.
Riddle me this. If thats the case, then how, against all expectations, did the Republicans gain House seats in 2020?
If the current cheating is allowed to stand you can forget about ever taking the house again.
The good news is that we still have all the guns. Overthrowing the old communist government and re-establishing a republic is never more than one violent revolution away. The communists know 2A is a powder keg, which is why they’re desperate to get rid of it.
That’s exactly how the Deep State wants you to feel.
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Exactly. Oh look, your winning! Oh no you’re loosing, send us money! Meanwhile the exclusive club of elites does what they please; shipping jobs overseas for cheap labor, making deals among their friends, and feeding at the public trough.
This headline is a joke.
Elections are meaningless. The big government globalists who count the vote, determine who wins.
Screw them and the horse they road in on
Under normal circumstances, I’d agree.
The Democrat fraud infrastructure will be stronger and more established in 2022.
The GOP’s reluctance to support Trump generally and more specifically in the post election day wars will alienate enough of their constituency to make a difference.
I expect the Democrats to gain on every front in 2022 and 2024. I see no rational reason to expect otherwise.
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