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Florida Early Vote update, 11/02/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/02/2020 | self

Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida
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To: Burma Jones

You are correct, sir. The mountain is less high.


161 posted on 11/02/2020 10:16:35 AM PST by Owen
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To: qam1
Those figures are at odds with TargetEarly's modeled party numbers of early votes:

R's with 1,908,550 (49.8%)
D's with 1,645,953 (42.9%)
UNA with 279,348 (7.3%)

Also, in GA you can vote across party lines in a primary so I'm not sure that taking the primary ballot selected is necessarily accurate for determining registered party.
162 posted on 11/02/2020 10:17:06 AM PST by FR33DOM4ME
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To: FR33DOM4ME

I think there is a lot of empirical evidence that the turnout spread Tuesday between Republicans and Democrats will be wider then 2016 due to China virus. But tomorrow we will see.


163 posted on 11/02/2020 10:22:34 AM PST by IVAXMAN
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Interesting thread

https://twitter.com/BillStepien/status/1323329137734397954?s=20


164 posted on 11/02/2020 10:25:35 AM PST by EaglesTTT
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To: All

General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP
Biden 49, Trump 46, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +3


165 posted on 11/02/2020 10:26:30 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Yup, I’m a Nevadan.What Ralston, and everyone else, have no fix on are the crossovers versus 2016. Covid drastically changed Nevada’s economic situation. Is a Hispanic, put out of his casino job by the Covid shutdown, still going to vote D though that is his paty affiliation? Also, I assume Rs know this is a do or literally die election. So I think it is right on the razor’s edge.


166 posted on 11/02/2020 10:31:01 AM PST by DaxtonBrown
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To: SpeedyInTexas

It’s fun to slice and dice these numbers, but without knowing how many crossovers there are, it’s hard to say where we stand.

That said, based on the numbers coming into today, assuming Trump and Biden are splitting all NPV 50-50, if Trump is getting only 3% more party crossovers than Biden (e.g., if Trump is getting 10% of Dems and Biden getting 7% of GOP, or if Trump is getting 8% of Dems and Biden is getting 5% of GOP), Trump is ALREADY AHEAD (unless crossovers are tiny - below 5%).


167 posted on 11/02/2020 10:34:00 AM PST by Burma Jones
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To: Burma Jones

This is true. We always assume baseline or worst-case scenario here.


168 posted on 11/02/2020 10:38:47 AM PST by Ravi
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To: Ravi

Sumter Reps now at 82% turnout. I expect them to hit 90% turnout by tomorrow.


169 posted on 11/02/2020 10:41:12 AM PST by Ravi
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I see there’s also a Minimum Wage Increase on the ballot in Florida

Could this cause a unfavorable shift in independents?


170 posted on 11/02/2020 10:44:10 AM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: EaglesTTT

yep good stuff


171 posted on 11/02/2020 10:53:29 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: EaglesTTT

I made the mistake of reading a few replies to that thread.

Several replies alluded to Don Jr. and cocaine use. I only use right-leaning sources for my news, so I don’t know anything about Don Jr. & cocaine.

Any Freepers heard these rumors? Any veracity to these rumors? Or just more disinformation?


172 posted on 11/02/2020 11:03:16 AM PST by BagCamAddict (#MAGA2020)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Baris is going live on youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0poheg6812Q


173 posted on 11/02/2020 11:04:43 AM PST by EaglesTTT
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To: BagCamAddict

Did Don Jr do cocaine? I would imagine a trust fund kid of the 1990s probably did cocaine.

Is he a coke head? He doesn’t seem to be.

I don’t like his girlfriend...but I don’t think he is a horrible, drug addled, fool. He wouldn’t be able to run the business he did if he was a mess.


174 posted on 11/02/2020 11:06:24 AM PST by Vermont Lt (We have entered "Insanity Week." Act accordingly.)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

“So far, 66.2% of all registered Florida Democrats have voted, as well as 65.8% of registered Republicans and 51.5% of no-party-affiliated voters.”

“Heading into Election, 72% of Miami-Dade Republicans have already voted, compared to 64% of Miami-Dade Democrats and 56% of no-party-affiliated voters.”

Statewide slightly higher turnout by Ds so far. Miami- More Rs. 72%! Come on 90%!


175 posted on 11/02/2020 11:09:57 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: BagCamAddict

Leftists accuse Donald and Don, Jr of being cocaine addicts all the time.


176 posted on 11/02/2020 11:12:23 AM PST by jjotto (Blessed are You LORD, who crushes enemies and subdues the wicked.)
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To: janetjanet998

2:08 update as expected DEMS mail in increased last hour

+62- 928 = D +865
+101 - 316 = D +316
+72 - 665 = D +665

or 615 per 20 min update

so far today including yesterdays Miami-dade and Sarasota dumps

Dems up + 444 IPEV ( Rep started in the hole after Miami/dade dump but will end up net +)

dems up 7362 mail ins

net DEMS up +7806

overall Dems up 112,492


177 posted on 11/02/2020 11:16:54 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: janetjanet998

3:08 better last HR FOR REPS

+65- 195 D +130
+109 - 80 R +29
+38 -11 R + 27

dems only gained an average of 25 per update


178 posted on 11/02/2020 12:13:21 PM PST by janetjanet998
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To: All

surprised to see an NBC article saying that Trump will win.
Don’t think he’ll be working there much longer
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-leading-trump-2020-polls-expect-election-day-be-repeat-ncna1245282


179 posted on 11/02/2020 12:14:14 PM PST by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Miami-Dade Reps:
80% turnout of RV would be 343,000.
85% turnout of RV would be 364,000.
90% turnout of RV would be 385,500.

Current turnout as of this am: 308,594.

80% turnout seems almost assured (knock on wood). I could easily see the REPs hitting 85% turnout in Dade, possibly more? Interesting.
180 posted on 11/02/2020 12:23:50 PM PST by Ravi
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