Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123
11/02/20: REPs - 3,404,088, DEMs - 3,512,211, lead of 108,123 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.9%
11/01/20: REPs - 3,315,884, DEMs - 3,410,789, lead of 94,905 for DEMs, 39.2% to 38.1%
10/31/20: REPs - 3,160,735, DEMs - 3,276,786, lead of 116,051 for DEMs, 39.5% to 38.1%
10/30/20: REPs - 2,966,747, DEMs - 3,130,430, lead of 163,683 for DEMs, 40.0% to 37.9%
10/29/20: REPs - 2,784,101, DEMs - 2,991,015, lead of 206,914 for DEMs, 40.5% to 37.7%
10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
“REPs - 3,404,088, DEMs - 3,512,211, lead of 108,123 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.9%”
Gap down to 1.2 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.
As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.
11/2 base numbers
537,345 104,686 662,031
yesterdays Sarasota and Miami-Dade sumps today
Mail ins
Gulf/Bay counties opened for IPEV
11/2 base numbers
537,345 104,686 662,031
yesterdays Sarasota and Miami-Dade sumps today
Mail ins
Gulf/Bay counties opened for IPEV
So, in a couple of weeks, based on these threads, it’s gone from a comfortable Trump victory to a nail-biter and possibly one affected by voter fraud. Swell.
My prediction:
Trump 51.4%
Biden 47.5%
Speedy, you’ve probably provided this before, but do you have a breakdown of actual raw vote (and % fo registration) of EV+VBM prior to ED 2016? How do we compare against those numbers?
Unfortunately results could be within recount territory. I’m not ready for a 2000 repeat.
Republicans traditionally overwhelm the Democrats on Election Day. The group of friends that I do Trump events with are for the most part, voting on election day. You have Trump heavy counties on the Western edge of the Panhandle that had polls closed due to Zeta. You had tens of thousands of people show up at 11:30pm on a Sunday night in Miami Dade to see the President. Relax..
In a fair election, Trump would win FL by 4-5%. I’m hoping for at least a 2% Trump victory in orderto avoid or limit the DEMs’ post-election shenanigans in FL.
Why aren’t you counting walk in Dems votes?Maybe you did but I missed it.Thanks.
Byecomey...do you have election day stats for 2016?
I have actual election day Trump vote from 2016 and some stats for 2018 election day for about 30 total counties such as R/D/NPA breakdown of raw vote and percentages.
M/D and Palm Beach did not update during the day so don’t have figures for them.
LMK if you need them.
Trump by 225,000
Just to see if I have this right - I think I’ve read on a prior thread that we can expect 10M to 11M total votes. If we land at 7M early votes that leaves 3-4M Election Day votes.
Assuming the early votes are straight party line and the unaffiliated voters split down the middle, then an Election Day turnout of 3M voters, split 55 Rep / 45 Dem should be more than enough. That would give the GOP a 300k Election Day lead and a 200K overall win, which is 2%.
Is that a fair read on the situation? If so, that seems like a number the GOP should easily be able to deliver?
How many super voters does each side have left ?
The Dems don’t have many, they are down to 0/4 or 1/4 voters. Our side has something like 200,000. I can’t remember where I read that though.
Prediction Florida:
1) Trump wins.
2) 5 point spread over Biden (surprising outcome)
Analysis:
1) Like the NCAA basketball tournament, I like the team with momentum. Teams with momentum always outperform. Trump definitely has momentum.
2) The Democrat “deck” is currently stacked with legacy Democrats from Sumter, SW Florida, and the Panhandle. To “unstack” this deck, the Democrats need a huge turnout of under 40 voters and minorities. I don’t think that happens.
3) Older Americans are more worried about losing their country to the leftist mob than they are about China Virus.
4) Trump pulls 42% out of Miami-Dade, and 72% out of Collier County.
Sorry I realize now my prior post omitted early unaffiliated voters, so Election Day turnout will be less. How many UFA have voted so far?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.