Just to see if I have this right - I think I’ve read on a prior thread that we can expect 10M to 11M total votes. If we land at 7M early votes that leaves 3-4M Election Day votes.
Assuming the early votes are straight party line and the unaffiliated voters split down the middle, then an Election Day turnout of 3M voters, split 55 Rep / 45 Dem should be more than enough. That would give the GOP a 300k Election Day lead and a 200K overall win, which is 2%.
Is that a fair read on the situation? If so, that seems like a number the GOP should easily be able to deliver?
For what it’s worth, the majority of the Republicans that I know are all voting on Election Day.
“If we land at 7M early votes”
Nearly 9m have voted already.
That layout of what is to come is numerically correct.