To: Ravi; LS; bort; byecomey; Coop; carton253; janetjanet998; dontreadthis
Predictions
Everyone please chime in with a Florida prediction. Ill go first.
Trump 49.00%
Biden 48.25%
Trump wins by 92,256, about 0.75%
My Previous Predictions
2016 Trump wins by 2.5%. Actual was Trump by 1.2%
Post #33 http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3490855/posts
2018 Scott wins by 2.0%. Actual was Scott by 0.12%
Post #4 http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3703297/posts
2018 DeSantis wins by 0.5%. Actual was DeSantis by 0.4%
Post #4 http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3703297/posts
3 posted on
11/02/2020 5:51:34 AM PST by
SpeedyInTexas
(Localization, not Globalization)
To: SpeedyInTexas
REPs - 3,404,088, DEMs - 3,512,211, lead of 108,123 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.9%
Gap down to 1.2 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.
As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.
4 posted on
11/02/2020 5:52:31 AM PST by
SpeedyInTexas
(Localization, not Globalization)
To: SpeedyInTexas
11/2 base numbers
537,345 104,686 662,031
yesterdays Sarasota and Miami-Dade sumps today
Mail ins
Gulf/Bay counties opened for IPEV
To: SpeedyInTexas
11/2 base numbers
537,345 104,686 662,031
yesterdays Sarasota and Miami-Dade sumps today
Mail ins
Gulf/Bay counties opened for IPEV
To: SpeedyInTexas
My prediction:
Trump 51.4%
Biden 47.5%
To: SpeedyInTexas
15 posted on
11/02/2020 6:04:10 AM PST by
LS
("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
To: SpeedyInTexas; Ravi; LS; bort; byecomey; Coop; carton253; janetjanet998; dontreadthis
Prediction Florida:
1) Trump wins.
2) 5 point spread over Biden (surprising outcome)
Analysis:
1) Like the NCAA basketball tournament, I like the team with momentum. Teams with momentum always outperform. Trump definitely has momentum.
2) The Democrat “deck” is currently stacked with legacy Democrats from Sumter, SW Florida, and the Panhandle. To “unstack” this deck, the Democrats need a huge turnout of under 40 voters and minorities. I don’t think that happens.
3) Older Americans are more worried about losing their country to the leftist mob than they are about China Virus.
4) Trump pulls 42% out of Miami-Dade, and 72% out of Collier County.
19 posted on
11/02/2020 6:07:51 AM PST by
bort
To: SpeedyInTexas
Trump by a little over 2%.
33 posted on
11/02/2020 6:26:29 AM PST by
wireman
To: SpeedyInTexas; byecomey
Trump by 1.5%
ByeComey, there is a bar for election day voting on the county election sites. I believe your map will default to the election day turnout or will it be incorporated into IPEV?
Here's an example from the recent primary in Walton.
37 posted on
11/02/2020 6:31:06 AM PST by
Ravi
To: SpeedyInTexas
my Florida prediction
is Trump wins by 184,512
To: SpeedyInTexas
Trump 49.2%
Biden 48.0%
Trump wins by 129,911, about 1.2%
To: SpeedyInTexas
To: SpeedyInTexas
My predictions:
Trump: 50.2
Biden: 47.7
Trump wins by 265,000 votes.
Bonus prediction:
Charlie Crist loses in FL-13, the Florida upset contribution towards re-taking the house.
To: SpeedyInTexas
Wow, Speedy, those are sobering numbers, with Trump losing ground in FL compared to 2016. If that happens (FL shifting to the left), MI/WI/PA are in jeopardy.
72 posted on
11/02/2020 7:07:43 AM PST by
nwrep
To: SpeedyInTexas
“Everyone please chime in with a Florida prediction. Ill go first.”
Trump 51
Biden 49
81 posted on
11/02/2020 7:19:29 AM PST by
JamesP81
(The Democrat Party is a criminal organization.)
To: SpeedyInTexas
Trump wins by 92,256
The exact crowd capacity at UF's football stadium. Perfect, love it!
To: SpeedyInTexas
With expanded African American and Latino/Hispanic Support, as well as an overblown amount of suburbanites/old people switching to D, as well as an unprecedented level of rural, NC white votes:
Trump by 3.2%
To: SpeedyInTexas
RE: Florida
Have you seen a thread for predicting pop vote and electoral results?
To: SpeedyInTexas
Let's see...
Some gross numbers...
Democrats have 5,303,254 registered voters.
- Assume 80% turnout. That means 4,242,603 votes.
- Assume African-American population of 16.9%, or 717,000 voters.
- Assume that President Trump gets 15% of these voters, or 107,550 votes. This nets to 4,135,053 votes.
- Hispanic population is 26.4%, or 1,091,654 votes. Assume President Trump gets 40% of this, or 436,662.
- Democrat net vote is now 3,698,392.
Republicans have 5,169,012 registered voters.
- Assume 85% turnout, That means 4,393,660 votes.
- Add the crossover African-American vote of 107,550. That nets to 4,501210 votes.
- Add the cross-over Hispanic vote of 436,662. That nets to 4,937,872 votes.
- Assume white crossover votes cancel each other.
The above translates to a result of Trump 57.2 Biden 42.8.
-PJ
139 posted on
11/02/2020 9:18:04 AM PST by
Political Junkie Too
(Freedom of the press is the People's right to publish, not CNN's right to the 1st question.)
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