Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123
For what it’s worth, the majority of the Republicans that I know are all voting on Election Day.
“Speedy, you’ve probably provided this before, but do you have a breakdown of actual raw vote (and % fo registration) of EV+VBM prior to ED 2016?”
2016 numbers are here: https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf
Small caveat. The 2016 VBM numbers include VBM ballots turned in on election day.
The holiday shopping season did not begin until it was settled with Bush v. Gore, when a decision of the United States Supreme Court on December 12, 2000 in a 5-4 majority decision settled a recount dispute in Florida's 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
“If we land at 7M early votes”
Nearly 9m have voted already.
“How many UFA have voted so far”
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Miami Dade/sarasota dump in
Dems had a good day
in fact they now lead in IPEV in Miami Dade
stats so far 9:08 update for today
IPEV DEMS +1507
Mail DEMMS +1796
NET Dems +3303
overall Dems +108,468
So few predictions?
Come on guys, don’t be shy. If you are correct, we won’t hold it against you.
Coop I believe is 51-47?
Ravi?
ByeComey?
NET Dems +3303
—
correction D+ 3782 on the day as of 9:08
Per Wiki, a trip down memory lane.
December 8, the Florida Supreme Court, by a vote of four to three, ordered a statewide recount of all undervotes, over 61,000 ballots that the vote tabulation machines had missed.
The Bush campaign immediately asked the U.S. Supreme Court to stay the decision and halt the recount. Justice Antonin Scalia, convinced that all the manual recounts being performed in Florida’s counties were illegitimate, urged his colleagues to grant the stay immediately.
On December 9, the five conservative justices on the Court granted the stay for Bush, with Scalia citing “irreparable harm” that could befall Bush, as the recounts would cast “a needless and unjustified cloud” over Bush’s legitimacy. In dissent Justice John Paul Stevens wrote that “counting every legally cast vote cannot constitute irreparable harm.” Oral arguments were scheduled for December 11.
In a per curiam decision, the Court first ruled 7-2 (Justices Stevens and Ruth Ginsburg dissenting), strictly on equal protection grounds, that the recount be stopped. Specifically, the use of different standards of counting in different counties violated the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution. (The case had also been argued on the basis of Article II jurisdictional grounds, which found favor with only Justices Scalia, Clarence Thomas and William Rehnquist.)
Second, the Court ruled 5-4 against the remedy, proposed by Justices Stephen Breyer and David Souter, of sending the case back to Florida to complete the recount using a uniform statewide standard before the scheduled December 18 meeting of Florida’s electors in Tallahassee.
The majority held that no alternative method could be established within the discretionary December 12 “safe harbor” deadline set by Title 3 of the United States Code (3 U.S.C.), § 5, which the Florida Supreme Court had stated that the Florida Legislature intended to meet.
That deadline arrived two hours after the release of the Court’s decision. The Court, stating that not meeting the “safe harbor” deadline would therefore violate the Florida Election Code, rejected an extension of the deadline.
So democrats gained about 12,000 since yesterday, not surprising as a last minute surge from people who waiting to the last minute to mail in their ballots are now hitting. We're still in pretty good shape at 108k. I think the general consensus was democrats needed to be ahead by over 200k going into election day to stand a chance of winning (assuming everything else stays the same as 2016 of in the party vote breakdown, IE not a lot of democrats voting Trump or Republicans voting Biden).
Thanks! So, same math with (let’s say) 1.5M Election Day votes...a 55/45 GOP advantage delivers a 150K Election Day lead and a 40K overall lead. Definitely tight, but still feels like slight advantage GOP.
Trump 52 Biden 46.
Trump by a little over 2%.
Anybody know how many votes INDs cast?
I posted it in yesterday’s thread. It came from a Dem analyst Peter Schorsch, editor of Florida Politics, who posted yesterday morning. He said Dems have to get their “low propensity” [0/4, 1/4] voters to the polls because they ran out of supervoters and less regular ones. He said GOP had 199K 4/4 “supervoters” left, 44K of 3/4, and 27K of new voters (0/4).
This was before Sunday vote numbers and last night’s Miami rally obviously. What the rallies do for us is net Dem voters, new voters (0/4) and low-propensity ones.
Thanks. Now I remember. Appreciate your work.
Me and my 3 sons are voting tomorrow in Palm Beach County for Trump. My 2 sisters and mother mailed in their Trump for president votes last week. My holdout wife knows that she better vote Trump tomorrow or her monthly budget will be negatively impacted.
I am in the heart of democrat hanging chad country and this area is at least 50/50 for Trump among the working crowd. Much of the many retirees in the senior communities already voted by mail because of Covid fears. In sum, the democrats have seriously cannibalized their base. Serious advantage Trump. Final call - Trump 52.3, Biden 46.7, miscellaneous 1%. Yes, it will be a substantial victory!!
If they couldn’t pull it off in 2018...
Ping
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