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Trump got 95% of the Republican primary vote, better then 2016

Biden much loser percent of Democrat primary vote.

There will definitely be more crossover Dems voting for Trump than Reps voting for Biden.

I am guessing 2% more Dems vote for Trump. (may be a LOT more)
I am guessing Trump wins independents by 3% (same as 2016 Florida - 53-47 Ind for Trump)

Will call D-R even split on total votes.

10,000,000 votes total, probably more.

* Trump gains equal number of R votes as Biden gets D votes
* Trump gains roughly 80K Democrat votes ***may be much more*** 2% of Dems
* Trump gains roughly 75k Independent votes 3% I’s

Trump for the win at 155K votes approximately 1.5%

Trump MUST win the Independents and small Dem crossover to have a solid victory.

Final Guess:

Trump: 49.5 %
Biden: 48.0 %

I really feel this is worst case as I expect a LOT of crossover Democrats especially in south Florida Cubans/PR/Hispanics , I think we are already seeing this in Dade County. I will be very happy to be off by a couple percent and see Trump win bigger margin :)