Trump got 95% of the Republican primary vote, better then 2016
Biden much loser percent of Democrat primary vote.
There will definitely be more crossover Dems voting for Trump than Reps voting for Biden.
I am guessing 2% more Dems vote for Trump. (may be a LOT more)
I am guessing Trump wins independents by 3% (same as 2016 Florida - 53-47 Ind for Trump)
Will call D-R even split on total votes.
10,000,000 votes total, probably more.
* Trump gains equal number of R votes as Biden gets D votes
* Trump gains roughly 80K Democrat votes ***may be much more*** 2% of Dems
* Trump gains roughly 75k Independent votes 3% I’s
Trump for the win at 155K votes approximately 1.5%
Trump MUST win the Independents and small Dem crossover to have a solid victory.
Final Guess:
Trump: 49.5 %
Biden: 48.0 %
I really feel this is worst case as I expect a LOT of crossover Democrats especially in south Florida Cubans/PR/Hispanics , I think we are already seeing this in Dade County. I will be very happy to be off by a couple percent and see Trump win bigger margin :)
I like your analysis, but my guess is a little more optimistic: Trump by 2%.
I think Florida will be less afraid of the Chinavirus than much of the USA plus more pro-business. I think the election will be shaped by the virus on the one side and optimism plus love of America on the other. I think older Americans will be weaker for Trump than in the past while younger folks (30s, 40s) will be more likely to vote Trump. The “I don’t like Trump’s attitude” switch of GOP to Biden will be minimal compared to 2018.