Florida Early Vote update, 11/02/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/02/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123

[cowboyusa]

I believe you said that anything short of 81% mail in vote percentage for Dems would be short, is that correct.

[Rumierules]

Does your analysis double dip by counting African Americans explicitly as 717,000 from the Dem share and then implicitly as part of the Rs share (4,393,660 votes)?

Same with hispanics?

[SpeedyInTexas]

“I believe you said that anything short of 81% mail in vote percentage for Dems would be short, is that correct.”

I thought Ds needed total turnout around 80.5% to win. Based on current VBM return rate, I have them at 78.5%.

A 2% shortfall may not seem like alot but 2% of 5 million voters is 100k votes.

[DaxtonBrown]

Right now I think it is Biden by 1%. Less than 2016, but it is a tough nut to crack.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Most polls in Florida show Trump losing to Biden, albeit within the margin of error and by a smaller amount than in Pennsylvania. But Trump’s campaign said it feels confident in Florida, in great part because GOP turnout of high-propensity voters has been so high during early voting.”

[Political Junkie Too]

Yes. It subtracts the number from Registered Democrats and adds them to the Republican count.

Subtracting them from Democrats and not adding them to Republicans would indicate stay-at-home.

I think...

-PJ

[SpeedyInTexas]

““Every day that I was on the street, at least that first week, a young Black male that looked to be under 40 or under 45 told me in secret that they were voting for Trump,” said Nicolas O’Rourke, organizing director for the Working Families Party in Pennsylvania, which is running a get-out-the-vote operation backing Biden. “I have seen and heard folks that they just could not get behind any of them. Many Black men are honestly disgusted by the Republican Party, but also very much so done and over the Democratic Party and have chosen just to sit out.””

[qam1]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Right now I think it is Biden by 1%. Less than 2016, but it is a tough nut to crack.”

I assume you are talking about NV?

Trump needs a big Indy win there, bigger than 2016. Plus even higher rural turnout.

[Ravi]

Don’t forget my favorite crazy party there.

[qam1]

Georgia is looking scary, Repubs look way down, but I don’t have 2016 to compare and from the map it looks like a lot came from the Atlanta area so hopefully not

https://mobile.twitter.com/L2political/status/1323244930047873027

Georgia 3,494,399 voters (51% of registered voters) have already voted — Party is based on the most recent primary ballot selected: 38% R // 46% D // 16% NP — 56% F // 44% M — 56% White // 39% Non-White // 5% unknown

[SpeedyInTexas]

“PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 49% (+1)
Biden 48%

@SusquehannaPR, LV, 11/1-2
https://realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/SusquehannaPolling-PAStatewidePoll-Oct2020.pdf";

[Ravi]

27.6% Black this year.
30.9% in 2018.
27.8% in 2016.
30.8% in 2014.
34.9% in 2008.
Don't have 2010 or 2012. Based on that statistic, we are doing quite alright.

[SpeedyInTexas]

One of the few pollsters to call Trumps win in 2016, has a 3 point national race.

Larry, I said it would be 3 points from them at the end. Trump can win electoral college while losing popular vote by 3 points.

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tight-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/

“Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll update finds the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 3.2 points, 48.8%-45.6%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Biden’s lead was 5.1 points on Sunday.”

[Burma Jones]

I’m not sure about your math. If Trump is down 116,000 going into tomorrow, and there are 2MM votes left, I think he only needs to win those 53-47%.

2MM x .53 = 1,060,000 Trump
2MM x .47 = 940,000 Biden

That would give Trump ED margin of 120,000, overcoming the EV deficit of 116,000.

Big difference between needing 53% and needing 56%.

[IVAXMAN]

Latino make up 17% of Florida voters. That is 1.7 Million voters if you assume 10 Million voters this year.

2016 Hillary won 62% of Latino Trump one 35%

2020 If trump increases Latino support to 40% That would be an increase of 85K votes over getting 35%. 5% of 1.7M.

So even a small gain in the Latino support can make a big difference.

Blacks comprise 14% of 2016 vote so similar results with them.

I believe Trumps push in the Latino and Black vote this year will be obvious in the final numbers.

[Chgogal]

Bookmark

[southpaw1]

More numbers to compare to tomorrow.

2016 & 2018 ED

Reps ranged from 39.5% to 42.5% (did not include PB or M-D)
Dems ranged from 33.5% to 34.5%
NPA ranged from 24% to 26%

Now we have no idea how the Dem emphasis on VBM will affect ED. According to the polls, it should add more Rep and so we are hoping/looking for greater than 42.5% share tomorrow.

[NittanyLion]

Good numbers. It’s certainly tight since we don’t know how undecideds / unaffiliated voters will break (and if the black and Latino vote will shift toward Trump), but every indicator suggests you’d rather be in Trump’s position right now v Biden. It seems clear he has a number of paths that could send him to victory.

With Biden, seems his path was to build an insurmountable early lead and we know that hasn’t occurred, absent an unexpected crossover vote.

[janetjanet998]

1:08 update

last 3

+79 - 20 = +55
+89 - 245 = -156
+67 -572 = -505

dems picking up 209 votes per 20 min update last hour

that last +505 mail ins for them may be the start of the typical early afternoon surge for them