Latino make up 17% of Florida voters. That is 1.7 Million voters if you assume 10 Million voters this year.
2016 Hillary won 62% of Latino Trump one 35%
2020 If trump increases Latino support to 40% That would be an increase of 85K votes over getting 35%. 5% of 1.7M.
So even a small gain in the Latino support can make a big difference.
Blacks comprise 14% of 2016 vote so similar results with them.
I believe Trumps push in the Latino and Black vote this year will be obvious in the final numbers.
Good numbers. It’s certainly tight since we don’t know how undecideds / unaffiliated voters will break (and if the black and Latino vote will shift toward Trump), but every indicator suggests you’d rather be in Trump’s position right now v Biden. It seems clear he has a number of paths that could send him to victory.
With Biden, seems his path was to build an insurmountable early lead and we know that hasn’t occurred, absent an unexpected crossover vote.